Tag: barley

October Arable Commentary

This time last year, we discussed how well the planted crops had established and were growing.  This year, over much of the UK, there is little to talk about as many farms have done very little drilling at all.  Official data reports that England averaged 107.5 mm rainfall in September.  This reading is far lower than that recorded in some people’s rain gauges; the topic of conversation that has trumped the crop yield discussion in pubs in all arable parts of the country of late.  However, the last time the official September rainfall eclipsed 100mm was in 2000.  That year was even wetter therefore than infamous 2012 year, which, whilst it had been wet on and off since April, and became very wet in October to December, had a dryish September.  Notably, the average September rainfall across all of England is 64mm, just over half of what the country has received this season.  Wales has just had its wettest September since 1981 but Scotland had the driest September in four years this year.  October seems to have been similar.

Drilling therefore is considerably behind schedule, with several people cancelling winter varieties in favour of either fallowing or a determination to drill in the spring.  Others have adopted a wait-and-see approach with late-planted winter wheats still an option.  Any rotation changes driven by the weather will add to existing trends.  This is particularly the case with oilseed rape where the fall in planted area is expected to continue for harvest 2020.  The 2019 crop showed the smallest crop output since 2004, and the smallest planted oilseed rape area since 2002 (at which point there was industrial oilseed rape on set-aside land).

UK wheat prices have also remained uninspiring this month.  Since the UK nearby wheat futures contract slipped below the Chicago wheat price (Soft Red Winter) in June, it has shown no inclination to swap back, instead following a relatively close £15 per tonne premium over Chicago number 2 maize. Number 2 maize is the cheapest, commodity-level maize that is used for animal feed, starch production and other industrial uses, so we would expect our wheat to be worth a bit more than that!

Malting barley prices have risen slightly this month, but looking forward, if this year is going to be anything like other very wet autumns, we could have high areas of spring barley planted, meaning a thumping big pile of malting barley so very small premiums next harvest.  Growers should consider their marketing options such as minimum prices, contracts and so on.

Whenever Sterling has risen in the month, we have seen pulse prices soften as would be expected.  It continues to remind us that the marginal tonne of a commodity is the one that sets the local prices.  We have had three years of higher grain prices because of a weak currency, but if we see a Brexit Deal happen this might change back.

Combinable Crop Situation

Oilseed rape production in the EU has not been so low since the EU the EU expanded to 27  Member States.  The introduction of Croatia in 2013 had minimal impact on the OSR supply and demand tables, but Bulgaria and particularly Romania, which joined in 2007, account for about as much production as the UK does.  The crop this year is thought (for example by Coceral) to be about 12% to 13% lower than last year, and as much as 29% lower than the highest production year of 2014.  In fact, since then, four out of the five years have incurred declines in OSR crop size.

This means that this year, the EU (including the UK in this description) will be importing oilseed rape from elsewhere.  Some have suggested 6 million tonnes of will be required.  At the same time, regulations on importing biodiesel produced from palm oil is becoming more expensive with duties rising.  Additionally, the rise of crude oil prices following the attacks on Saudi refineries have also led to rises in vegetable oil markets.  These factors have come together to support oilseed rape prices in recent weeks on European markets.

In the meantime, Sterling has gaining strength by 5% against the Euro in the light of rising expectations of a Brexit deal since early August.  This has wiped out any gains in the UK OSR markets. This (relatively modest) currency shift demonstrates just how dominant the value of the Pound is on agricultural prices.  We have no influence on the value of Sterling and minimal ability to predict accurately.

Taking this logic a little further, it follows that as soon as a decision on the type of Brexit is reached, whether Deal, No Deal or even no-Brexit, the impact on the value of our currency will almost inevitably be instant and dramatic; probably far more than 5% in either direction, depending on outcome.  In the short term, the profitability of cereal farming post Brexit-decision will be led by currency shifts.  Any other factors might be dwarfed by this one thing.

Exporters have been working round the clock to export as much wheat and barley from the UK’s exportable surplus since harvest.  Their deadline is 31st October as they do not know what the tariff rates will be after then.  Conveniently, there has been considerable buying interest from many of the large cereal buyers, mainly in North Africa including Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt.  These countries don’t buy from the UK, but they have occupied other exporters’ minds whilst UK traders have focused on our traditional Iberian markets.  This has helped UK grain prices to hold up, in the face of stronger Pound (see above).  Yet the EU wheat crop is considerably higher than last year and the US cereals prices (especially maize) have been falling this month.  The urgency of exporters to get stocks off farms and onto boats has supported prices.

Bean prices are also holding up well.  The urgency to export the (considerable) surplus is smaller, both as much of the bean export goes outside the EU anyway, and also as the tariff rate to the EU is far smaller.  In any case, the trade has struggled this year to find much that is of food grade, most ending up in feed bins.

Arable Roundup

UK Harvest

Until the last week of August, harvest was a headache for many farmers.  Many areas had four inches of rain in June, another four in July and about 2.5 in August, meaning the ground was soft.  Intermittent showers meant progress was slow.  However, the last few days have been all-systems go, facilitating a catch-up.  The warm, dry, weather has also meant producers have been far less dependent on the drier than at the start of the harvest.

With a majority of cereals now cut, yields have been good to excellent overall.  Winter barley has yielded higher than average with plenty of our clients reporting 8 to 8.5 tonnes per hectare (3.25-3.5t per acre).  Wheat has also been very good.  Strong loam soils that have been cared for with ample organic matter over the years and heavy land have achieved in excess of 11 tonnes per hectare (4½ t per acre) – and not just in isolated cases.  Bushel weights of 80+ have been commonplace too, but Hagberg readings have not been as good following the intermittent rain-shine weather.  Lighter soils and those with less organic matter have been affected by the dry weather in May and early June.  However, yields are still good so plenty of light land farmers are recording above average results.  Oats are still in the field and losing colour so possibly less attractive for milling.

OSR has been variable because a fair area had larvae feeding on plants in spring which led to poor podding in crops.  That led to yields being moderate at best, many reporting around the 3-3.3 tonnes per Ha (1.2-1.3t per acre).

Beans have been at high risk of bleaching following the showery weather of the previous few weeks.  Beans discolour and therefore lose value easily and quickly.  Those that have managed to harvest beetle-free and coloured beans could expect a £25 to £30 premium over feed beans but the large amount of feed means this base price is not great.

European Harvest

Cereals harvests are completed in most part of the EU, including France and further South.  They are near completion in Northern Germany and Poland, and well underway in Eire, Denmark, Scandinavia and Baltic States.  Again, yields have been bumper.  For soft wheat, Strategie Grains, an analyst company forecast European production at 143 Mt, a considerable 12.3% increase on last year.  The wheat area is up by ¾ million hectares and yields are also above the 5-year average.

In France, the wheat crop will be high at 38 to 40 million tonnes depending on whom you ask.  Only one Department has recorded lower than average yields and proteins are high.  The German and Polish crops are also good.  Even outside the EU, the Ukrainians have also had high yields, and have already started their export campaign in earnest, with higher sales than last year and a target of 21 million tonnes, which is 5.5 million more than last year.

The EU is likely to have cut over 60 million tonnes of barley this year, mostly winters.  France will have seen a rise in springs because of oilseed rape problems.

Prices

This means there will be a large EU crop this year and nearby neighbours also providing surpluses. Achieving exports from the UK might prove tricky.  This explains why futures prices have hit contract lows in all positions in the last couple of weeks; we have lots to sell, everybody else who exports does too and those who import also have more grain than usual.  It is clear what this might mean to prices, especially when the possibility of having tariffs looms over the UK crops.  It is perhaps therefore no surprise that wheat values have fallen by £20 since June and £10 per tonne solely in August.

The weakening Pound has done little to retain any kind of value in commodities, in fact, comparing the UK Nearby wheat futures contract prices with the comparable French, a gap has opened up of about £10 per tonne more than usual. This might be the Brexit effect.

UK Grain Harvest and Marketing Commentary

UK Combinable Crop Harvest – What Should We Expect?

The harvest is in its early stages; it started a little earlier than usual and for some, even earlier than last year.  Considerable activity until Thursday last week was seen with barley, oilseed rape and even some wheat reaching the barns, but the storms over the weekend have halted most harvesting. We expect a picture of a stuck combine in Friday’s Farmers Weekly as usual!

For much of the UK though, the crops are in a good condition, especially the cereal combinable crops and early indications suggest good yields (albeit early). The jury is still out for oilseed rape, although, whilst we have heard a lot about crop write offs and poor condition crops, there are still plenty of farmers sitting quietly on what looks like a full field of seeds. It is difficult to tell before the combine has been through. The storm over the weekend has flattened some crops at a very late stage which might cause some harvesting problems.

In much of Europe, particularly, France and Germany, the two main grain producing countries, the recent spells of very high temperatures have apparently taken a toll on the ripening crops. However, the crop tonnages forecast remain comfortably above the very poor yields harvested last year.

OSR

Oilseed rape harvest started before the storm.  Following the last couple of very dry days of last week, a few farmers had been harvesting very early in the day or trying to wet the seeds to a level that would be accepted by merchants. To recap, the standard FOSFA contract for oilseed rape is for 9% moisture.  Oilseed rape is not accepted at moisture levels above 10% (or you would incur drying charges).  You gain 1% in price for every 1% the moisture decreases to 6%.  Below that point, it becomes difficult for a crusher to extract oils so is rejected. If you are testing the seed and the moisture levels are heading down towards 6%, advice is to stop harvesting, and restart early in the morning (better than late in the evening because the moisture may have reached the seed rather than just the pod). Wetting oilseed rape is not recommended, as it is often uneven, rather, mix it with some wetter seed to make an average moisture within the tight band.

 Cereals

The barley harvest too is under way. It is early days and the better yields are always reported first so we reserve our judgement for a month. Barley harvest in France is a quarter through and moving northwards quickly. The very first wheat crops are starting to be cut now too, but it is too early to make any useful comments about it.  More next month.

Globally

Most combinable cereals are grown in the Northern Hemisphere, so our harvest time will be more or less in line with most others’. Across the EU, harvest is quickly moving northwards, with considerably better results than the poor yields from last year. The Black Sea region and Ukraine are also harvesting, with yields up on last season, although the Russian harvest is smaller than initially projected.  North America, the main breadbasket of the grain exporting world is wading through its winter wheat harvest, now being three quarters completed and in China, another large crop is being gathered.

Within a month, the analysts will start publishing their expectations of crop sizes, based not on planted area and trend yields, but more on actual reports coming in from the fields.

This all sounds rather bearish, and often is for a short period, whilst buyers identify what is available, in terms of quality, quantity and location. The calculators then come out and the premiums are established. We note that as the population continues to rise, the overall demand for grains is also increasing every year, and so to simply stand still, the world needs to harvest a record crop each year.

Marketing

When it comes to marketing our combinable crops this year, we should be more focused on the impacts of a Boris Brexit than the actual marketplace itself. Yes, we acknowledge we made similar comments following last season’s harvest and nothing happened, but there is still a chance that Brexit will actually occur, and more importantly, that it might do so without a deal.

Those with combinable crops to sell are reminded that exporters are not able to book sales to the EU post-Brexit day, because they do not know what the price will be (tariffs or no tariffs), so grain long-holders (farmers) should consider the risks and benefits of holding grain unsold into the autumn. Bear in mind that oilseeds have no tariffs so should not be affected by them, beans have only a low tariff and are mostly exported to non-EU destinations so should be similarly unaffected. However, the cereals are potentially holding a lot of value at the moment because the tariff structure protects them. We will probably have a surplus of feed wheat and oats this year so it might be prudent to pass the risk of these crops elsewhere sooner rather than later (i.e. selling them).

Global Grain Stocks

According to those who keep track of such numbers (in particular the US Department of Agriculture and the International Grains Council) the world has plenty of grain in store.  At 640 million tonnes of year-end wheat and feed grains, that is nearly as much as the world has ever had.  That sounds rather bearish for prices.  However, there are two points worthy of note.

The first point to consider is where those stores are being held.  In essence it matters not whether grain is in exporter’s barns or importers silos; it is all available to supply consumers.  But if something is thought likely to remain in store for a considerable time, then its impact becomes significant only at the time of its sale, not whilst it is squirreled away in a barn.  There are more consumers in China than in any other country in the world.  China therefore gets through more grains than any other country; in fact, consuming about half as much grain again than the Americans, the second most hungry nation.  China also produces more grain than any other country, this time by a margin of about 20% over its nearest rival, again the USA.  China has not historically been a large player in the global market apart from topping up their wheat reserves from time to time.  However, it has, in recent years, started importing various grains, including barley and maize as well as more tropical crops like sorghum.  And, as it happens, over half of that 640 million tonnes of grain carry-over stock is held in this one country.  That is equivalent to nearly 10 months supply.  One would assume it will be used one day, as long as it is being properly stored, but it also means that whilst it is locked up like that, the rest of the world has to operate as if it wasn’t there.  Clearly if it is sold and Chinese stocks fall one day, as has happened in the past, it could lead to low grain prices for some time, but in the meantime, stocks, excluding those in China are relatively tight at 300 million tonnes.

The chart demonstrates the grain stocks held in China compared with the rest of the world, and the amount eaten in China compared with the rest of the world. it demonstrates they are holding quite a bit.

Grain Stock and Consumption Globally; China and the rest.

The second point is, we are consuming more grain than we have ever done so as well.  So as a proportion of consumption, 300 million tonnes is not that much.  Of wheat, the closing stocks is about 23% of consumption, almost a quarter of a year, but of feed grains, its 13%, about 6 weeks.  This is about equivalent to ‘pipeline stock’ requirements in the UK and many other countries as the end of the season is June and harvest begins in August.  All of a sudden, its starting to sound a little more bullish.

Grain Market Commentary

Everything grain marketing is focused on new crop by this time of the year, even the remains of the old crop.  However, this year there is a problem.  Without knowledge of a Brexit outcome, exporters have no idea what they can afford to pay, not knowing whether there will be any kind of trade deal meaning a transition to Brexit and therefore whether they will have trade tariffs to pay to send grain to the EU-27 next year or not.  Furthermore, importers are in the same position.  Trades for the new crop are just not taking place, at least not until after Halloween.  A likely wheat surplus for the UK this coming year is compounding the problem.

The domestic marketplace is far less impacted by Brexit and theoretically not at all, however, the traded tonnes are those that set domestic prices.  Buyers at the grain processing and milling firms are dealing with this mainly by carrying-on as normal – all their competitors are in the same position, and unless any take any speculative positions, they will all experience the same price shifts simultaneously.

The weakening of Sterling as a result of political uncertainty has given a small boost to grain prices.  Barley prices have lifted in recent days as well as wheat, albeit by less than the rise of wheat prices.  This might seem a worse outcome for barley, but the potential barley surplus and uncertainty over the export of the crop from November might actually mean this is a good opportunity to sell.

The weak Pound has boosted the oilseed rape price in Sterling terms during May.  Oilseed rape does not have a trade tariff on it, so the complications from Brexit are less significant.  However, the US government has announced substantial support in terms of additional grants for soybean growers in the USA, in a bid to compensate them for the US-Chino trade spat that they have become embroiled in.  This does not seem to have had a major impact on EU oilseeds as yet.  One might assume a high global oilseed crop this year, considering the Brazilians have also been producing lots of soybeans to steal the US business to China; it all has to go somewhere.

Beans do have trade tariffs, but only small ones.  The new crop is in very good condition at the moment, a rather different situation to their final condition last harvest.  Again, it is new crop that the markets are focused on, and currently, other proteins such as rape meal and soybeans are comparatively cheaper than pulses so their incorporation into feed rations is likely to be relatively small.

In the field, growing crops are looking good throughout the UK, that is with the exception of oilseed rape.  Grains and pulses are growing well, and reports of serious disease issues are rare.

Grain Crop Commentary

Old Crop

Towards the end of the wheat marketing season, the impact of the fundamentals of grain supply and demand change, with some taking on greater impact, others less.  Firstly, the increasing amount of information over the emerging new crop overtakes the dwindling and ageing information about the remaining old crop, increasing the impact from new crop fundamentals.  Secondly, the volume of new crop wheat being traded, which is rising all the time surpasses the declining volumes traded of old crop.  This accelerates when the last old crop futures market expires as is the case now as we enter May (having entered the notice period for physical delivery of the underlying good).  Market fluidity also declines considerably when futures markets are not available.  The technicalities of closing the held contracts becomes a physical issue either having to physically deliver them or close the position.

This year, domestic wheat consumers are buying no more than ‘pipeline stocks’, as they are fully aware of the considerable discount (£16 per tonne) that exists between old crop and new crop, and that the price between the two crops must converge at some point.  On the back of the previous paragraph, they are aware of the forthcoming downside to the grain market; if physical grain will have to come out of the stores to honour the futures contracts already held, then this will prove a bearish factor on a thin and technical market meaning prices are likely to fall from here.  Indeed, the value of wheat has fallen over the month and this will probably continue.  It could well be time for long-holding farmers to sell the remainder of what they have in their barns.

New Crop

Rain in the UK has been gratefully received, but for most parts, its not enough.  However, analysts are reporting good crop conditions throughout the world and large global areas of wheat.  High levels of planted wheat in Canada and the US, and rainfall in the EU has raised crop expectations this month compared with last.  Speculators and funds are holding a considerable short position (i.e. the have sold what they don’t own, expecting the value to fall so they can buy them back cheaper).  It is maybe no surprise that the new crop is considerably lower priced than old crop.

Demand for feed barley has faded since Easter as the warm weather has provided a welcome burst of grass for the livestock farmers.  Coupled with this, many farmers have used Easter to clear their remaining unsold grain, placing downward pressure on feed barley values.  Volumes of export sales are small, and short term, as nobody is clear what tariffs will be charged on sales after Brexit.

Oilseed Rape prices have held up well in the UK this month partly on the back of a weakening Sterling. The underlying market, the US soybean market has fallen sharply, despite reduced forecast crop areas, and expectations of a resolution of the US/Chinese trade dispute that has been taking place in recent months.  Despite the UK OSR crop looking pretty poorly (see other article), globally the oilseed crops are in better fettle.  OSR is not a price setter itself as volumes are comparatively small compared with other vegetable oils such as soy bean oil.

The old crop Pulse market is now effectively over, and thoughts are now on the emerging new crop in the ground.

UK Arable Viewpoint

There have been some healthy volumes of wheat export sales from the EU in March, especially from France to third countries, helping to clear out the overall EU surplus.  Whilst it might seem that France is a competitor to the UK and so French business is not good for UK sales, it is still the same Single Market that volume is being taken from, reducing any surplus and a rising tide lifts all boats in the same harbour; at least for now.

The increase in wheat area in the UK this coming year will be the first rise for five years, and, even then, primarily because 2013 was fraught with drilling problems leading to a very low drilled area.  The prospect of a large 2019 harvest is contributing the sharp decline in grain (wheat values) for new crop in the UK just now.  It is also possible that the market has started making an adjustment to partially build-in the cost of tariffs for new crop exports, should we leave the EU without a deal.  The UK has a feed wheat surplus most years, the majority of which has been exported to Iberian customers for decades.  This would be one area where the impact of Brexit would be felt by the farming community relatively quickly.

Old crop feed barley values are still discounted against their calculated feed-value equivalent to wheat, but still higher than new crop in a similar fashion to the wheat prices.  New export business for malting specifications has temporarily slowed whilst traders are unsure of whether or how much tariffs they are likely to have to pay.  It is much easier once they know what to tap into their calculators so they know the relative costs of grains around the world.

Spring drilling conditions have been good to excellent throughout Britain, it’s just that there’s not so much land available to drill as conditions were so good in the autumn, with more land was drilled then as well.  We would assume there will not be much fallow land this year for that reason.  The area of spring wheat has fallen dramatically this year according to anecdotal reports, partly because the favourable drilling conditions last autumn left little space for spring wheat.  Similarly, spring barley area is thought lower than last year too.

The pulse market is just about finished now so anybody with beans still unsold should think about what they plan to do with them.

In Leicestershire’s heavy soils, the damp footprint beneath the boot suggests a good seedbed and ideal growing conditions. However, dig a spade’s depth into the soil and it becomes evident the soil is still rather dry as a result of last year’s drought.  In fact, this winter has also been a relatively dry few months.  The crops survived last year’s drought because of the very wet spring, this year, the soil moisture is far lower than this time last year so crop will rely on reasonable rains this year to reach harvest safely.

Arable Market Commentary

New Crop

In terms of growing conditions, little could be more extreme than the temperatures recorded this month compared to last February.  In the February 2018 bulletin we cited the ‘Beast from the East’ delaying drilling.  This year, spring drilling is well ahead of normal with almost 25% of spring barley already in the ground.  A word of warning though; early drilled spring crops are not always the highest yielding, and there is time yet for very cold weather.  We reserve any judgement on harvest yield potential.

The USDA makes its first prediction of US wheat area every February, this year suggesting decreased plantings, in a falling area trend.  Indeed, if correct, it would be smallest US wheat area for 110 years.  This identifies the changing demands for grains, shifting to maize, for pig and poultry feed, biofuels and indeed even human food.

The International Grains Council’s first expectations of the forthcoming 2019/20 year are for a rise in global wheat production, of about 1%, a similar magnitude to the annual rise in demand so no substantial changes in year-end stocks.  This seems to contradict the findings of the USDA, but theirs, of course is USA only.  An increase in coarse grain harvests are also foreseen by the IGC, with maize and barley both up about 1%.  This is in line with the rise in demand so is no more than trend demand.  Much of the coarse grain increases are predicted to occur in the USA and China; the two biggest grain producers, so a small proportional change in these countries will be noticed.  However, there are also rumours that China is considering rolling-out a major expansion to its bioethanol inclusion policy, which would have a considerable impact on feed grain demand in the coming few harvests.

Of course, much of these crops that have been forecast have not yet even been drilled; all maize, and soybeans are spring crops and Canadian, Russian and half of the US wheat is also spring varieties.  Therefore, these projections are statistical analyses coupled with a smattering of planting intention data, not hard evidence of plants sprouting from the ground yet.

Old Crop

In the EU wheat market, a gradual decline in values this month (making European grain cheap compared with American grain) led to Europe and Russia winning some large export contracts to Saudi Arabia, boosting the export figures and balancing the supply and demand books.

The demand for ruminant feed is currently slipping away as cattle venture into the fields and sheep have grass to eat; leaving a lack of demand for feed barley, which has fallen to a £25 per tonne discount beneath feed wheat (which is primarily fed to housed chickens).  Barley is being included at maximum rates in rations now for this reason.

Oilseed rape prices have taken a tumble, based on the arrival of a large vessel loaded with Canadian canola, and the reduction of the rapeseed crush volumes in the UK.  This time of year is often difficult for European rapeseed (and pulses) as harvests from the Southern Hemisphere become available and start putting pressure in markets.  The Old Crop pulse market is increasingly thin and new opportunities will become rarer now, despite a healthy premium over feed wheat for pulses.

Combinable Crops: January Update

Sterling is at its strongest point against the Euro for almost a year and a half (which lowers grain values), yet it is still only 4% stronger than it was when it started rising in early January. This means it has taken approximately £7.00 off the price of a tonne of wheat, and £13.00 from oilseed rape.  For many, this is the difference between a profit and a loss, but, equally, is not such a violent swing as we have seen in previous marketing years, when wheat price has shifted by far more in single days.

The grain market is relatively quiet; surprisingly high amounts of wheat remain unsold, despite some predictions from the trade that farmers would be sold ahead of Brexit.  In fact, the farming community being pro-Brexit on balance might see opportunities from selling later this year.  However, long-holders should be aware that the spread between old crop and new crop wheat currently sits at just under £20 per tonne, ex-farm.  Large price spreads like this have to close at some point which suggests either old crop is too dear or new crop is cheap.  The chart below shows the big step in prices as we look ahead to 2019-crop.

The discount from feed wheat to feed barley currently sits at about £10 per tonne, a comparatively small 6% of the wheat value.  Yet despite this, the discount is attractive to feed compounders.  Good quality malting barley retains a comfortable £30 per tonne premium over feed barley, but the market is currently thin with small volumes of new business being done.

The pulse market is also thin, with not many beans remaining unsold on farm.  The market is therefore starting to turn to new crop marketing; a difficult one as quality is unknowable at this time of year ahead of harvest.  The market has been strong though, with the price spread of feed beans over feed wheat having risen to over £50 per tonne: a margin not seen since the spring of 2015.  This is largely because of the small and damaged harvest of 2018 following the hot weather, coupled with political complexities within the global vegetable protein market at present.  Many farmers will be looking to secure more spring bean seed, although its availability is not clear, despite a derogation for certified seed to have a lower germination this year than usual.