A reduced area and late planting means a very small 2023 potato crop is expected this year.
Potato growers have probably planted the smallest crop on record this year, with most of that crop going in very late. The total GB area is forecast to be around 100,000 hectares, which would be 5% less than last year, according to World Potato Markets (WPM) estimates. Low prices and high costs means that planting of pre-packed potatoes is likely to be the smallest ever at 36,000 hectares; similar to the area for processing potatoes, which growers have favoured more because of higher contract prices – up by 30% in many cases. The area of bagged potatoes for chipping is also down, as is the seed area.
The lack of AHDB area data makes it difficult to give more precise figures, but WPM estimates that there is a total GB area of 101,723 hectares; 13.4% less than in 2020 when the last AHDB data was published. The pre-pack area is down 18% on 2020 to 36,342 hectares, processing potato area down 8% to 36,019 hectares, fresh chipping area down 15% to 12,005 hectares and the seed area also down 15% to 12 912 hectares.
If there is a repeat of the average 2020 yield of 46.7 tonnes per hectare then production would be 4.750 million tonnes. However, achieving such yields might be difficult as a wet and cold spring have delayed planting by at least a month – some growers will not finish planting until the first week of June. The planted crop is now vulnerable to extremes of weather including hot and dry or wet conditions.
The prospect of a late harvest and a relatively small 2023 crop have pushed prices up in recent weeks. Old crop white potato prices are double what they were earlier in the season at more than £400 per tonne, while some bagged chipping potatoes are making more than £700 per tonne.
Prices in mainland Europe have risen to record levels driven by a lack of supply, late planting and strong demand. Free-buy processing potatoes are making almost €500 per tonne; double what they were at the start of the season. Those very high prices are likely to continue into the new season because of pressure on supply.
The lack of potatoes in the UK means that its imports of frozen fries have soared to more than 810,000 tonnes or the equivalent of 1.6 million tonnes of potatoes. The market is now the second largest in the world after the US.