Tag: wheat

Investors Push Wheat Prices Lower

The value of wheat has fallen considerably over the past month.  A bumper crop in Australia, forecasts for strong South American maize production, and the continuation of exports from Ukraine have all contributed to the slide in prices.

Furthermore, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), who monitor the position of traders in futures market, highlights that ‘managed money’ funds have consistently been net-sellers of Chicago wheat futures since the beginning of October.  Fundamentally, this means that those in charge of investment funds expect wheat prices to go lower.  The net position of such funds shows that investment funds are now the most bearish they have been since April 2019.

This bearish view for comes despite the global supply and demand balance for wheat being the tightest since 2007/08 and is a potential indicator of recessionary concerns.

The maize picture, which is an underlying driver of wheat markets, has been more positive with prices rising in recent days.  Much still hangs on the South American maize crop.  There are concerns for Argentinian production amid drought, whilst the Brazilian crop outlook is still positive.  The Brazilian crop is typically more than twice the size of the Argentinian one.

May 2023 UK feed wheat futures have tracked the global wheat price decline, falling to around £240 per tonne, a drop of around £20 per tonne from mid-November.  New crop, November 2023, futures have dropped by a similar amount, to just under £228 per tonne, on 15th December.

While the mood is generally negative around grain markets, there are still some potential positive drivers.  In particular, there is much discussion at present about the decline in India’s wheat stocks. India consumes 13% of the world’s wheat, and stocks are expected to hit a six-year low.

UK Grain Markets

UK grain and oilseed markets have, unsurprisingly, continued to follow global trends.  Spot feed wheat was worth £241.50 per tonne in the week ending 18th November 2022; this is £16.70 per tonne lower than at the end of October.  On top of the global grain market falling, there are concerns about the impact of Avian Influenza and the smaller pig herd on feed grain demand.

Feed barley was worth £228.60 per tonne on 18th November.  This is a fall of £9.60 per tonne from the end of October.  The discount of barley to wheat has narrowed over the past month, this is reflective of the first official supply and demand estimates of AHDB, published in November.  The figures show opening stocks of barley at a ten-year low.  Despite this, the surplus available for export remains greater than last season and animal feed demand remains a key watch point.

While milling wheat prices have fallen, the premium of ex-farm milling wheat over feed has grown.  This is driven by reduced availability of high-protein milling wheat (13% protein plus) and the high cost of gluten as an alternative.  Milling wheat is at a near £55 per tonne premium over feed, as at 18th November.

UK oilseed rape prices have fallen in line with global oilseed benchmarks.  Ex-farm oilseed rape is now worth £518 per tonne, spot.  There is less demand in the UK this season with the closure of the Hull crushing facility, announced in June, set to take place in December.

The pulse market continues to suffer from a lack of demand, with the value of peas and beans having fallen to the end of the month.

Global Grain and Oilseed Markets

Throughout November the price of grain has fallen back considerably.  Futures prices were dropping before the announcement of a 120-day extension to the Ukrainian grain export corridor, 17th November.  Global grain markets have softened primarily on expectations of a large maize crop.  The crop underpins global feed and industrial (ethanol) markets.

There are expectations of record maize production in South America, in response to high prices.  Brazilian weather conditions appear well suited to a big crop.  Conversely, Argentina is also forecast for a record maize crop despite currently experiencing a severe drought.  The drought in Argentina has, however, trimmed production outlooks for wheat.  South American weather remains a key watch point for grain markets, particularly with an active La Niña (the third in three years).  La Niña brings dry weather to South America.

Despite forecasts for bumper maize production, the balance of global grain supply and demand remains tight.  This ought to offer some underlying support.  However, concerns about the impact of recession on demand, particularly industrial demand, seem to be outweighing this fundamental tightness.

Demand concerns are also impacting global oilseed prices.  China’s zero-tolerance approach to Covid is driving expectations of reduced palm oil demand.  This, combined with increased palm oil production in Southeast Asia, has depressed prices.  This has impacted rapeseed markets with the underlying value of rapeseed oil falling.  Additionally, a rebound in Canadian canola (rapeseed) production following last year’s disastrous crop is leaving global oilseeds well supplied.

Wheat Market Moves from West to East

Over the past twenty years both Russian production and exports of wheat have grown to a point where Russia is the leading exporter of the grain. There has been similar growth in Ukraine, albeit to a lesser degree.

Exports of Wheat from Top Five Exporters and Ukraine

Source: USDA

While the area of wheat planted to wheat in Russia has grown by almost 6.2 million hectares since 1991, it is growth and stability of yield which has done much of the heavy lifting. At the breaking of the Soviet Union, Russian wheat yields were around 1.7 tonnes per hectare, now they are nearer three tonnes per hectare.

In Ukraine, excepting 2022, the area of wheat is broadly similar to 1991, as with Russia yields have grown.

The increasing importance of Russia and Ukraine on global wheat prices should be of little surprise. This is especially true given the impact of the last eight months on grain prices.

Beyond Russia and Ukraine, the shift to the East is evident.

The closest rival for Russia’s export crown is the EU. The same pattern of movement in key exporting nations from West to East is happening in the EU

In 2003/04, Central and Eastern Europe[1] accounted for 24% of total European wheat production. Twenty years on, the same block of countries is expected to account for 38% of production in 2022/23, an increase of twenty-seven million tonnes.

Share of EU wheat exports from Central and Eastern Europe

Source: Eurostat (EU Commission)

The same block is also seeing vast growth in its exports. Using a similar timeframe to the one above, over the last nineteen years (2003/04 to 2021/22) Central and Eastern Europe has grown its share of wheat exports from 13% of the EU (exc. UK) total to 52%. It is worth highlighting that the export figure is somewhat inflated by poor production in West Europe. That said, the direction of travel still holds.

So, why does this matter?

While anything remains possible, it seems likely that EU wheat supplies are safe from conflict, even with Romanian and Bulgarian wheat needing to pass through the Black Sea to the Bosporus Straight.

With the three key wheat futures markets, Chicago, Paris, and London, clearly not moving, crop conditions in the US and Western Europe are still key to sentiment.  But we need to pay increasing attention to conditions in Eastern Europe.

The Paris futures exchange is based on a specification of wheat delivered into one of five locations on the west coast of France. Traditionally, we would consider our price relative to Paris futures as a marker of how competitive UK grain is on the world stage.  France is still the top EU exporter, and comparisons to French prices remain important.  However, it is now as important to consider the competitiveness of our export prices relative to Eastern Europe nations.

The UK has an exportable surplus of wheat this season, and the UK price will have to compete with EU values to find a home.

[1] Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia

Grain & Oilseed Market

This month, the first UK wheat and barley supply and demand figures for harvest 2022 were published by AHDB.  A 15.7 million tonne crop has left the UK looking well supplied.

Given the increase in available supplies relative to last season, the discount of UK feed wheat futures to Paris milling wheat futures has grown.  This will prompt increased export demand for UK grains.

The Pound closed on Friday 21st October at £1=$1.13, almost 7% lower against the Dollar than on 1st July.  It is worth highlighting that this is up significantly from the low of £1=$1.07 at the end of September.  The political and economic uncertainty in the UK that has caused the Pound to weaken at least increases the attractiveness of UK exports.

Wheat values have bounced around over the course of the past month, mostly driven by uncertainty over the Ukraine-Russia grain shipment deal.  However, with things returning to the status quo in the Black Sea, at least for the time being, grain values have fallen back.  On Friday 21st October, ex-farm feed wheat was worth £256 per tonne, down £12 per tonne from 23rd September.  Milling wheat prices have fallen £11 per tonne over the same time period to £311 per tonne.

AHDB’s barley supply and demand estimates shows UK production at 7.2 million tonnes.  The commentary alongside the estimates highlights a decline in barley demand in animal feed driven by a switch to wheat.  Barley is currently at a £19 per tonne discount to feed wheat.  If demand falls further, without a strong gain in exports the discount will grow.  Given the reductions in the size of the pig herd, a fall in barley demand seems likely.

In the next three months, the size of the South American maize crop will be a key driver of price.  Brazil and Argentina are key suppliers globally and are set to experience a third successive la Niña. The weather pattern brings drier than normal weather and tends to reduce output.

UK ex-farm oilseed rape is worth £521 per tonne, up almost £30 per tonne on the month.  Vegetable oils are the key driver of support for oilseed rape.  The destruction of a key sunflower oil processing plant in Ukraine, uncertainty over palm oil output in Southeast Asia, and strong EU purchasing (both rapeseed and sunflower seed) combined to support prices.  A large soyabean crop, globally, and expectations of big canola (OSR) crops in Australia and Canada is tempering prices.

Feed bean values continue to move lower on lacklustre demand both domestically and for export.

UK Grain and Protein Prices

Recent rainfall has been beneficial, and planting of winter cereals is underway in parts of England.  The East in particular, however, remains very dry.  Primary cultivations are being completed, but increased fuel use and worn metal from hard ground is raising costs.

Unsurprisingly, UK grain and protein markets continue to follow global trends.  UK feed wheat values have moved back up to £260 per tonne (spot) for the first time since the beginning of July.  New crop (2023 harvest) values are likely to be around £10 per tonne below this value.  This based on the assumption that they are worth around £10 per tonne below November 2023 feed wheat futures.  In reality, it is hard to gauge a value for new crop wheat in such a high-priced market.

Milling wheat is currently at a £40 per tonne premium to feed wheat.  Early data from the AHDB Cereal Quality Survey shows that protein content is down this year; averaging just 12.5% on UK Flour Millers Group 1 varieties.  This does not necessarily mean that there will be an increased premium for ‘in specification’ wheat, with much depending on the performance of the crop in baking trials.  At the moment, the crop is thought to be performing well.

Feed barley is moving at a discount of approximately £20 per tonne to feed wheat, or £240 per tonne. The discount is at broadly normal levels, given the elevated price of grains.  Demand for barley will be lower this season owing to the reduced size of the pig herd.

Globally, it appears that there is going to be a much-improved supply of oilseed rape and other oilseeds this season.  This is primarily due to increased production, year-on-year, in Canada.  As a result, the price of rapeseed, nearby, has moved to pre-Ukraine war levels, to around £500 per tonne.

Feed bean values have moved back up with wheat values.  That said, pulse markets are thought to be well supplied, both domestically and globally.  Increases beyond those tracking wheat are unlikely especially given expectations of favourable weather for crops in Australia; a key export market competitor, during their spring.

Crop Areas 2022

Defra has published the first official crop area figures for harvest 2022.  These only relate to England at the moment; full UK figures are due next month.  Given the raft of data previously published on crop areas, there are no real surprises in the release.

In 2022, the English wheat area was 1.67 million hectares, an increase of 13,000 hectares on 2021.  Wheat area increased in all regions of England, except the Eastern region where area fell by just 0.3%.  The rapeseed area increased by the largest amount year-on-year.  Oilseed rape prices were considerably higher than in recent years during July to September last season.  As a result, the OSR area increased by more than 54,000 hectares, up 20% on 2021.  There were large increase in the East Midlands (+11.4Kha), West Midlands (+8.7Kha), Yorkshire and the Humber (+8.5Kha), and the Eastern region (+8.5Kha).  Further increases in OSR area were anticipated for harvest 2023.  However, given the incredibly dry summer and lack of rain in late August/ early September for many regions, planting issues will limit the increase.

The rise in rapeseed area for 2022 was, seemingly, at the expense of barley and oats.  The overall area of the barley crop in England was the lowest since 2015, at 782,000 hectares.  Spring barley area fell by the largest amount, down more than 60,000 hectares.  The planted area of oats fell by 19,000 hectares, to 140,000 hectares.  The area of rye in England has increased considerably in the last ten years.  In 2013, it was just 6,000; in 2022 this had increased to just below 40,000.  The crop has potential in multiple markets, including pig feed, which is likely a driver of the increase.

The first official Defra harvest estimates for cereals and oilseed production in are typically published in October, followed by the final UK results in December.  Looking to the 2023 harvest, the results of the ‘AHDB Early Bird’ survey (conducted by Andersons) will provide the first robust indication of areas.  Regional results will be available in December 2022.

Harvest 2022 and Prices

Overall

The UK grain harvest is all-but finished now and, overall, has produced excellent results.  Completion by the end of August must surely be a record?  The exceptionally dry and hot weather conditions have brought with it opportunities, but also challenges.  Almost all the harvest will have been gathered dry, but hot.  The grain drier was not needed to reduce moisture for almost all farms.  Yet some used them to cool grain.  Now the nights are cooling, farmers should be turning fans on to reduce the grain temperatures.  As frosts arrive this will be a useful time to cool the grain further.

Numerous farmers have experienced field fires with losses of standing grain.  At this stage we have no measure of how much has been lost in this way.  That risk is now subsiding, but farmers must pay attention to their straw stacks.  They should make more, smaller stacks than usual and preferably hidden from sight to as not to attract attention.

Wheat

Reports suggest this year’s wheat crop is excellent quality with a good yield.  After the dry conditions we have experienced since June, it is easy to forget the very useful spring rains we received as grains were starting to fill.  This was just as important as the ripening sunshine and the dry harvesting conditions we have had this summer.

Some reports suggest many farms have experienced greater than usual variation of  protein levels within the same varieties.  This means that grain sampling should be given particular attention this year.  Any additional mixing might be useful if this is possible, as segregating protein levels is difficult and probably now too late to do.

New crop wheat prices fell in the latter part of August.  Earlier in the month world grain markets were driven up by reports of very dry weather in the maize growing regions of the US.  In addition, China was claiming a wheat crop catastrophe, with very poor conditions, suggesting fairly extreme crop failure conditions.  However, it now turns out that China has harvested more wheat than last year!  This reduced forecast Chinese import demand.  Concerns around the Chinese economy have also dampened expectations of Chinese buying.  The last few days have seen rain in the Mid-west of the US which has eased concerns about the maize crop and pulled down all grains prices.

The other global factor of note is Ukraine.  Last month, we talked of how Ukraine and Russia had brokered a deal to allow Ukrainian grain exports to restart.  Grain was stuck in elevators, stores and farm barns.  We were skeptical it could be exported quickly or even reach the ports in many cases.  In fact, almost two thirds of a million tonnes were exported in the first three weeks of August.  Furthermore, the programme is continuing with expectations of 3 million tonnes going out in September.  Not only does this provide grain that the world market had largely written off, but also makes storage space for the new crop.  The Russian crop has also been good and exports have been high – partly making-up for the tonnages lost to the world market from Ukraine.

Barley

The UK barley crop is proving to be of a particularly high quality; most growers are thrilled with their results.  However, when everybody shares such success, the market reacts.  Indeed, the feed wheat:barley spread has grown to up to £20 per tonne and prices might have to decline further as UK barley is still not competing in the export market.  Furthermore, the malting specification, especially for springs is so good that many crops that would have achieved malting specification in previous years will end up being fed.  The malting premium has been falling as so much of the crop meets the required specification.

Reports from Scandinavia and other parts of the EU also highlight high quality and good yields, suggesting the UK malting barley crop faces some stiff competition in the marketplace this autumn.

Beans

Beans ripened almost too quickly this year.  Being usually among the last crop to go through the combine, their ripening from the high temperatures was a little premature.  Small bean size, especially in the spring beans, will have reduced the crop size to an extent.  Shattering bean-pods has also been an issue.  However, overall most farmers are relatively happy with their crops.

OSR and Drilling

The oilseed rape harvest was completed in record time.  This was the case throughout Europe as well as in the UK.  Not only is Europe reporting 10% more OSR than last year, but the Canadian crop is apparently half the size again from last year.  Australia too, is reporting 10% more area this year.  Even in Ukraine, where the crop had been partially written off, a reasonable tonnage has been harvested; more than one might have expected in the circumstances.  Prices have fallen in response and are now at or near to the levels in February – before the Ukrainian war began.  This is £220 beneath the highs of mid-May.

Little OSR drilling has taken place so far, with soils too dry to take the seed or allow germination.  What little rain has fallen has barely softened the tops of the soils, rather drained through the cracks in most fields.  Some are becoming concerned with this, although there is still ample time for rains to fall to allow satisfactory drilling and germination.

 

 

UK Grain Market Update

The UK grain and oilseed harvest is well ahead of typical pace. Much the UK barley crop and swathes of the Oilseed Rape crop have been cut. Many farmers are now well into their wheat crops some 7 to 10 days ahead of normal. Early indications point to high bushel weights among winter grain crops.

UK grain markets have tracked global prices in recent weeks. Both new and old crop wheat prices have fallen in response to the availability of grain in Europe and the US. UK feed wheat prices (ex-farm) were quoted at just over £242 per tonne on 22nd July. Milling premiums have also fallen back to around £25 per tonne, ex-farm. However, if high specific weights persist throughout harvest, diluting the proportion of protein, we are likely to see an increased premium for good protein levels.

Feed barley prices have been pressured downwards by harvest progress, quoted at a £31 per tonne discount to wheat, at £211 per tonne.

Oilseed rape prices have also fallen considerably over the course of the last month. Oilseed rape (spot) is now worth £534 per tonne, down from £596 per tonne at the end of June. This is in part  due to the move from old crop to new crop pricing. Similar declines have been seen in November 2022 Paris Rapeseed futures. This points to an overall easing in response to improved supply and weaker demand of oilseeds globally. An increase in oilseed rape plantings is anticipated for harvest 2023. However, a lack of soil moisture may cap these gains.

Feed beans and peas were quoted at £282 and £272 per tonne, respectively (spot, ex-farm). Prices are back to tracking wheat prices closely after wheat had opened up a large premium earlier in 2023.

Harvest pressure is inevitable at this time of year. A greater surplus of UK grain, either for export or closing stocks, is expected in the coming season. This will drive a closer relationship between UK and EU grain prices. While there is short term pressure in prices, long-term the global supply and demand of grains remains tight.

Global Grain Markets Update

Global grain market prices have fallen over the last month. Global grain harvests are progressing, and Russia and Ukraine have reached an agreement, mediated by Turkey, on the movement of grain. Both of these factors have eased concerns about tight supplies in the coming season. Despite the easing of supply concerns, and prices, in the short term, some underlying concerns remain.

The big news towards the end of July, was the agreement between Russia and Ukraine of new export channels. Again, this has eased some short-term concerns. Grain prices moved sharply lower on Friday 22nd July as a result. However, agreeing that grain can be exported from Ukraine is very different to the reality of actually exporting it. On Saturday 23rd July shelling resumed at the port of Odesa, the key grain terminal covered by the agreement. Even if a solution is found and ports are de-mined, insurance premiums on vessels will surely be much higher than previously, which would impact competitiveness of the region.

In Europe and North America, grain harvests are progressing well, benefitted by dry weather. The winter wheat harvest in the US is 70% complete, in line with average progress. Additionally, the condition of the spring wheat crop is vastly better than last season. The US has exported large volumes so far, supporting the view of larger crops.

In France, the wheat harvest is 84% complete, as of 18th July. This time last season it was only 12% complete. Again, progress has been good following hot dry conditions. As with the US harvest this fast pace to harvest has eased short-term global supply concerns.

Whilst hot weather in the EU has allowed harvests to progress, it is concerning for the development of the maize crop. The amount of the maize crop rated “good” or “excellent” fell by eight percentage point in the week to 18th July, to 75%, while this is still positive if high temperatures continue, conditions could fall further offering some support.

The United States Department of Agriculture released its global supply and demand estimates earlier in July. These estimates highlight concerns about overall availability of grain this season. The stocks-to-use ratio of wheat, barley, and maize is the lowest since 2013/14. While not dramatically tighter than last season, it is worth bearing in mind that China holds 58% of the world’s grain stocks, at least on paper. If we exclude China from the stocks-to-use calculation, availability for the coming season is the lowest since 1996/97.