Tag: pulses

Arable Market and Harvest

UK Combinable Crop Harvest – What Should We Expect?

The harvest is in its early stages; for some the oilseed rape and barley is gathered, for others it has just been desiccated or is still ripening.  At this stage of harvest, without fail, commentators remark on the high variation of yield and quality.  The first fields always show variation in performance, and even in consistent years, the first fields present an unreliable bellwether for the rest of the harvest.  This is particularly as light southern soils often reach harvest before the heavier soils, and show greater yield variation, especially in years when drought has played a part in the year.  It would astound us if overall the combinable crop yields turned out high, especially the winter crops.  A good average yield of any of the main crops this year would either reset our expectations of what nature is able to do with plants in highly uncompromising conditions, or lead us to question the reliability of those calculating national estimates.

OSR

There will of course be some fields which just avoided being replaced in the spring, and harvest barely enough to justify the combine entering the field, but other fields will provide good crops.  Like all other crops, it is too early for any meaningful analysis.

Remember, the standard FOSFA contract for oilseed rape is for 9% moisture.  Oilseed rape is not accepted at moisture levels above 10% (or drying charges are incurred).  There is a gain of 1% in price for every 1% the moisture decreases to 6%.

Cereals

Some traders consider the winter barley harvest is 75% completed already (not the case round here by a long way – Ed).  Exports are taking place, both physical shipments and also orders.  UK feed barley is cheapest in Europe at the moment.  The demand for barley as animal feed (barley is generally for ruminants) seems to have dropped across some nations as people eat out less and therefore rely on white meats and vegetables in the home.  Demand for barley is thus down a bit.

Over the course of the last year, the price of wheat for this harvest has been gradually rising, albeit with considerable fluctuations from £140 to almost £170 per tonne on the futures market.  The prices for the 2021 harvest have remained highly range-bound between £150 and £155 per tonne.  The slowly declining UK and European crop size has been evident throughout the year, so prices have picked up, but so far of course, the crop for 2021 is unknown.

Globally

Most combinable cereals are grown in the Northern Hemisphere, so our harvest time will be more or less in line with most others.  Across the EU, harvest is quickly moving northwards.  In France and Germany, the two main grain producing countries, harvest is progressing in an average condition (not as well as last year).  The Russian wheat yield is reported as the smallest for at least 6 years, and smaller than initially projected.

Marketing

When it comes to marketing combinable crops this year, the focus may need to be more on the impacts of a Brexit than the actual marketplace itself.  Yes, we acknowledge similar comments were made following last season’s harvest and nothing happened, but Brexit has now occurred, and more importantly, a new trading situation will be implemented as of January next year.  This could possibly be trade with the EU without a trade deal.  These factors will affect the value of the marginal tonne (either exported or imported) which sets the price in the whole market.  We do not know the outcome yet, but farmers might consider this when planning on the date they fix the price of their grain (not necessarily the date of delivery).

Harvest 2020 Prospects

In the June 2019 edition of this Bulletin, we wrote “It never rains, it always pours!  By early June, some were concerned about the dry soil conditions, by the end, the concern was flooding.”  Some parts of Central England have felt the same about this year, with flash storms, bringing a month’s rain in a morning, onto previously dry land.  Damage to crops is thought minimal, if only because they are so thin!  The current sunshine will help them ripen with good quality and support bushel weights.

Since September last year, the November 2020 feed wheat futures price has lifted from £140 per tonne to over £175, and is currently at about £163 per tonne.  Since September, production concerns have reduced the expected crop size to what most people now expect to be considerably less than 10 million tonnes, and probably nearer to 9 million.

November 2021 wheat price has hardly moved out of the £150 to £155 per tonne range since September.  Clearly, there is so little information about how much there will be in 2021 yet, and what the change in demand might be, that the market does not move far unless currencies shift it.

Looking ahead at the possible, or likely supply and demand figures for wheat this year, we find a most unusual situation.  We are likely to enter the 2020/21 crop marketing year with considerable carry-over stock level according to the AHDB; higher than we have had for 30 years.  This is convenient, as the harvest projection outlined above is 5 million tonnes, or a third, down on the average crop size.  It means the UK will still need to import approaching 4 million tonnes of wheat with zero exports to balance the books and finish with sufficient ‘pipeline’ stocks – the stocks that are required to keep the mills running between the end of the marketing year (June) and the harvest.  This is an import level also not seen in a generation.  Not only has the UK not had a crop this small in that period, but also, since the last small crop (of 11.5 million tonnes in 2001), the UK has increased its level of wheat processing and consumption by 2 million tonnes.

UK Wheat Balance Sheet – source AHDB & ABC

The barley supply and demand outlook is less extreme.  Whilst the data is not as easy to interpret (two crops, less certainty about spring drilled area for example), using the lowest yields for both crops for a decade, and the crop area figures used by The Andersons Centre, we end up with a crop of 6.3 to 6.4 million tonnes.  This is considerably less than last year (8 million) but similar to 2018.  The rains last week will have provided a necessary boost to the growing crops in the UK, especially the springs, and now most grains will have sufficient moisture to see them to harvest.

The area of oilseed rape harvested is likely to be less than 400,000 hectares (including springs), making it the smallest area since 2002.  With some shocking looking crops in the ground, it is possible the total crop tonnage will be less than it was then.  Demand is lower though, as the economics of biodiesel is not worth turning the factories on, and with people not eating out (where food is generally fattier), the demand for oils for cooking has also fallen.  The market for pulses at this time of year is very quiet.  The recent rains will have been very well received by the growing crops, especially the spring drilled ones.

Arable Roundup

Everything grain marketing is focused on new crop by this time of the year, even the remains of the old crop respond to new crop market fundamentals.  So prices are moving based on the reports of crop development and of rain or sun. Hence, the markets at this time of year fluctuate far more than the well-being of the developing crop in the ground.  This volatility is of less importance in the spring as farmer selling tends to slow, as has been the case this year too.  Sales are even slower than normal, as a result of farmers trying to assess what they might have to sell.  Inevitably, for many this will be less come September than usual.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its May bulletin released figures showing ample wheat stocks, sending wheat prices down.  But the growing conditions around the world are not great at the moment.  The Russian new crop is suffering more than the UK from dry conditions and the crop expectation there has been reduced several times by the local analysts.  Across the EU, similarly, crop prospects are being trimmed back by dry soils from the UK across the Northern European belt.  At the time of writing. the outlook remains warm and dry.  With the UK wheat crop almost inevitably less than 10 million tonnes, and possibly considerably less, the London wheat futures have been gradually rising.  This has also been supported by a weaker currency.

Maize demand is starting to rise again with the resumption of an ethanol market in USA.  The same is happening for oilseed rape in the European markets with biodiesel demand restarting again.  This, coupled with the anticipation of oil guzzling restaurants reopening soon in the UK and Europe has led to higher oilseed rape prices.  Coupled with a very low OSR stock level in Europe gave the market a £10 per tonne boost.

The same factor has been positive for malting barley; hints that physically distanced bars might be able to reopen soon have supported the malting sector.  Furthermore, the dry soil conditions have pushed down the yield expectations for the large area of spring barley, trimming the potential total crop size.  Again, this holds true for Europe going right across the Black Sea regions.  Rain is needed badly in the whole of Europe.

The pulse market has reached its high point, having risen to levels that don’t calculate to export to buying destinations.  Trading is still quiet as Ramadan continues, but is in its last week.  There might be some new crop business thereafter, but probably only when prices come down slightly.

The release of the UK Government’s import tariff schedule this month explains the charges exporters will have to pay to send grain to the UK after the departure of the UK from the EU-Brexit Transition Period on 1 January 2021.  The tariffs  to import wheat and barley from third countries will be £79 per tonne and £77 per tonne respectively.  We normally export these crops but this year this may not be the case due to the low crop size.  Therefore these tariffs might have a market effect.  However, the import tariff for maize will be zero, suggesting maize can flood in from France and the Americas easily.  Thus maize is likely to be the feed-grain import of choice.  Furthermore, the high specification wheat will also not have a high tariff, suggesting the milling wheat demand will be sufficiently met.

Crop Market Summary

The demand for bread and therefore milling wheat is high.  People eat chicken and eggs at home more than beef and lamb so the demand for feed wheat has also increased.  Old crop prices have benefited from the surge in short term demand, which farmers have benefited by selling into.  The fall of Sterling has given grain prices a considerable boost (see earlier article), and also made the UK wheat price competitive for exports, so new shipments have been sold into continental destinations this month.  New crop feed wheat hit contract highs.  Globally, wheat has also risen on news of the Chinese buying US wheat, and a considerable 240,000 tonnes in two shipments.  This is the first such deal in three years.

The consumption of alcohol (especially beer) out of the house has disappeared and people drink less beer at home (and alone) than when they are out.  And this is global.  Hence the malting barley premium is declining sharply.  The combinable crop price matrix is shifting because of (presumably) short term, sudden, changes in the way that people eat.

Crude oil has fallen by 60% to its lowest level since 2003 as the demand for travel falls.  The demand for biofuel has therefore disappeared too.  This has a greater impact on the vegetable oil market through bio-diesel than the ethanol market into cereals.  This has played a bearish factor in the oilseed rape market, meaning prices have not rallied on the fall in Sterling as much as the grains have done.

The pulse market has been relatively light, with reduced international business, partly because of the virus, but more because of the freshly harvested Australian bean crop that dominates business into North Africa at this time of year. Usually by Easter the UK bean market is more or less finished.

Grain merchants and other crop production businesses remain open as the food supply industry is classed as an essential business.

Combinable Crop Markets

This time last year, we showed the chart below with the faded bars.  It demonstrated wheat was priced with a typical carry as it goes through the year; with the monthly rise in value the longer you keep it to account for the costs of storage. It also showed the usual drops in value each year when the new crop physically comes into the marketplace.

The dark blue bars show this year’s equivalent set of futures prices, and how there is a full carry from now all the way through to May 2021.  In other words there is no drop in price when the flush of new crop becomes available this summer.  It demonstrates that the market understands that there might not be much harvest to account for the flush.  Only when we get to the summer of next year, do we see wheat futures prices start to fall.

UK Wheat Futures Price – source AHDB

Old crop wheat is currently cheaper than new crop, but is still dearer than equivalent continental values meaning they are too expensive to secure exports to EU destinations.  It also suggests that, if the supply situation changes in coming weeks, the market might fall considerably.  This may be prompted if there are enough dry conditions for the many farmers still sitting on their winter wheat seed, some varieties of which could still be planted well into February, to get some more drillings done.  Globally, wheat prices are strong, sitting at levels not seen at all in 2019.  Some with a crop already safely growing, will see this as an opportunity to sell some new crop forward now.

Higher wheat prices have boosted feed barley values this month too.  This has been coupled with some useful exports, particularly from old crop.  New crop barley could be a big one this year, with large volumes of spring barley seed committed or delivered.  The markets (both wheat and barley) will be sensitive to both the ongoing weather throughout the spring and also the updates on drilling.  We do not expect a million hectares of spring barley to be drilled, but it largely depends on how the weather turns out in coming weeks.  Wherever possible, many growers are still very focussed on getting their wheat in the ground.  It is difficult selling even the feed base forward this year as currently, many farmers are not even sure what they will harvest.

It is emerging that large crops of soybean from the southern Hemisphere, Brazil in particular, are expected this coming year, and other regions such as Ukraine are looking to grow more oilseed rape. This, coupled with trade talks between the Chinese and Americans, has seen oilseed rape lose some value.

Old crop pulses have been rising in price this month, partly because of demand for the protein, but also, it is thought, as growers hold tonnages back for potentially drilling.  Winter beans can be drilled relatively late, and of course, spring beans might also play an important role in the 2020 rotation.  Many seed merchants have sold out of bean seed and potentially, we could have the largest pulse cropped area the UK has recorded for many years.  It takes a long time to multiply beans up (compared with cereals and especially oilseed rape), hence the high proportion of home saved seed.

October Arable Commentary

This time last year, we discussed how well the planted crops had established and were growing.  This year, over much of the UK, there is little to talk about as many farms have done very little drilling at all.  Official data reports that England averaged 107.5 mm rainfall in September.  This reading is far lower than that recorded in some people’s rain gauges; the topic of conversation that has trumped the crop yield discussion in pubs in all arable parts of the country of late.  However, the last time the official September rainfall eclipsed 100mm was in 2000.  That year was even wetter therefore than infamous 2012 year, which, whilst it had been wet on and off since April, and became very wet in October to December, had a dryish September.  Notably, the average September rainfall across all of England is 64mm, just over half of what the country has received this season.  Wales has just had its wettest September since 1981 but Scotland had the driest September in four years this year.  October seems to have been similar.

Drilling therefore is considerably behind schedule, with several people cancelling winter varieties in favour of either fallowing or a determination to drill in the spring.  Others have adopted a wait-and-see approach with late-planted winter wheats still an option.  Any rotation changes driven by the weather will add to existing trends.  This is particularly the case with oilseed rape where the fall in planted area is expected to continue for harvest 2020.  The 2019 crop showed the smallest crop output since 2004, and the smallest planted oilseed rape area since 2002 (at which point there was industrial oilseed rape on set-aside land).

UK wheat prices have also remained uninspiring this month.  Since the UK nearby wheat futures contract slipped below the Chicago wheat price (Soft Red Winter) in June, it has shown no inclination to swap back, instead following a relatively close £15 per tonne premium over Chicago number 2 maize. Number 2 maize is the cheapest, commodity-level maize that is used for animal feed, starch production and other industrial uses, so we would expect our wheat to be worth a bit more than that!

Malting barley prices have risen slightly this month, but looking forward, if this year is going to be anything like other very wet autumns, we could have high areas of spring barley planted, meaning a thumping big pile of malting barley so very small premiums next harvest.  Growers should consider their marketing options such as minimum prices, contracts and so on.

Whenever Sterling has risen in the month, we have seen pulse prices soften as would be expected.  It continues to remind us that the marginal tonne of a commodity is the one that sets the local prices.  We have had three years of higher grain prices because of a weak currency, but if we see a Brexit Deal happen this might change back.

Grain Market Commentary

Everything grain marketing is focused on new crop by this time of the year, even the remains of the old crop.  However, this year there is a problem.  Without knowledge of a Brexit outcome, exporters have no idea what they can afford to pay, not knowing whether there will be any kind of trade deal meaning a transition to Brexit and therefore whether they will have trade tariffs to pay to send grain to the EU-27 next year or not.  Furthermore, importers are in the same position.  Trades for the new crop are just not taking place, at least not until after Halloween.  A likely wheat surplus for the UK this coming year is compounding the problem.

The domestic marketplace is far less impacted by Brexit and theoretically not at all, however, the traded tonnes are those that set domestic prices.  Buyers at the grain processing and milling firms are dealing with this mainly by carrying-on as normal – all their competitors are in the same position, and unless any take any speculative positions, they will all experience the same price shifts simultaneously.

The weakening of Sterling as a result of political uncertainty has given a small boost to grain prices.  Barley prices have lifted in recent days as well as wheat, albeit by less than the rise of wheat prices.  This might seem a worse outcome for barley, but the potential barley surplus and uncertainty over the export of the crop from November might actually mean this is a good opportunity to sell.

The weak Pound has boosted the oilseed rape price in Sterling terms during May.  Oilseed rape does not have a trade tariff on it, so the complications from Brexit are less significant.  However, the US government has announced substantial support in terms of additional grants for soybean growers in the USA, in a bid to compensate them for the US-Chino trade spat that they have become embroiled in.  This does not seem to have had a major impact on EU oilseeds as yet.  One might assume a high global oilseed crop this year, considering the Brazilians have also been producing lots of soybeans to steal the US business to China; it all has to go somewhere.

Beans do have trade tariffs, but only small ones.  The new crop is in very good condition at the moment, a rather different situation to their final condition last harvest.  Again, it is new crop that the markets are focused on, and currently, other proteins such as rape meal and soybeans are comparatively cheaper than pulses so their incorporation into feed rations is likely to be relatively small.

In the field, growing crops are looking good throughout the UK, that is with the exception of oilseed rape.  Grains and pulses are growing well, and reports of serious disease issues are rare.

Grain Crop Commentary

Old Crop

Towards the end of the wheat marketing season, the impact of the fundamentals of grain supply and demand change, with some taking on greater impact, others less.  Firstly, the increasing amount of information over the emerging new crop overtakes the dwindling and ageing information about the remaining old crop, increasing the impact from new crop fundamentals.  Secondly, the volume of new crop wheat being traded, which is rising all the time surpasses the declining volumes traded of old crop.  This accelerates when the last old crop futures market expires as is the case now as we enter May (having entered the notice period for physical delivery of the underlying good).  Market fluidity also declines considerably when futures markets are not available.  The technicalities of closing the held contracts becomes a physical issue either having to physically deliver them or close the position.

This year, domestic wheat consumers are buying no more than ‘pipeline stocks’, as they are fully aware of the considerable discount (£16 per tonne) that exists between old crop and new crop, and that the price between the two crops must converge at some point.  On the back of the previous paragraph, they are aware of the forthcoming downside to the grain market; if physical grain will have to come out of the stores to honour the futures contracts already held, then this will prove a bearish factor on a thin and technical market meaning prices are likely to fall from here.  Indeed, the value of wheat has fallen over the month and this will probably continue.  It could well be time for long-holding farmers to sell the remainder of what they have in their barns.

New Crop

Rain in the UK has been gratefully received, but for most parts, its not enough.  However, analysts are reporting good crop conditions throughout the world and large global areas of wheat.  High levels of planted wheat in Canada and the US, and rainfall in the EU has raised crop expectations this month compared with last.  Speculators and funds are holding a considerable short position (i.e. the have sold what they don’t own, expecting the value to fall so they can buy them back cheaper).  It is maybe no surprise that the new crop is considerably lower priced than old crop.

Demand for feed barley has faded since Easter as the warm weather has provided a welcome burst of grass for the livestock farmers.  Coupled with this, many farmers have used Easter to clear their remaining unsold grain, placing downward pressure on feed barley values.  Volumes of export sales are small, and short term, as nobody is clear what tariffs will be charged on sales after Brexit.

Oilseed Rape prices have held up well in the UK this month partly on the back of a weakening Sterling. The underlying market, the US soybean market has fallen sharply, despite reduced forecast crop areas, and expectations of a resolution of the US/Chinese trade dispute that has been taking place in recent months.  Despite the UK OSR crop looking pretty poorly (see other article), globally the oilseed crops are in better fettle.  OSR is not a price setter itself as volumes are comparatively small compared with other vegetable oils such as soy bean oil.

The old crop Pulse market is now effectively over, and thoughts are now on the emerging new crop in the ground.

UK Arable Viewpoint

There have been some healthy volumes of wheat export sales from the EU in March, especially from France to third countries, helping to clear out the overall EU surplus.  Whilst it might seem that France is a competitor to the UK and so French business is not good for UK sales, it is still the same Single Market that volume is being taken from, reducing any surplus and a rising tide lifts all boats in the same harbour; at least for now.

The increase in wheat area in the UK this coming year will be the first rise for five years, and, even then, primarily because 2013 was fraught with drilling problems leading to a very low drilled area.  The prospect of a large 2019 harvest is contributing the sharp decline in grain (wheat values) for new crop in the UK just now.  It is also possible that the market has started making an adjustment to partially build-in the cost of tariffs for new crop exports, should we leave the EU without a deal.  The UK has a feed wheat surplus most years, the majority of which has been exported to Iberian customers for decades.  This would be one area where the impact of Brexit would be felt by the farming community relatively quickly.

Old crop feed barley values are still discounted against their calculated feed-value equivalent to wheat, but still higher than new crop in a similar fashion to the wheat prices.  New export business for malting specifications has temporarily slowed whilst traders are unsure of whether or how much tariffs they are likely to have to pay.  It is much easier once they know what to tap into their calculators so they know the relative costs of grains around the world.

Spring drilling conditions have been good to excellent throughout Britain, it’s just that there’s not so much land available to drill as conditions were so good in the autumn, with more land was drilled then as well.  We would assume there will not be much fallow land this year for that reason.  The area of spring wheat has fallen dramatically this year according to anecdotal reports, partly because the favourable drilling conditions last autumn left little space for spring wheat.  Similarly, spring barley area is thought lower than last year too.

The pulse market is just about finished now so anybody with beans still unsold should think about what they plan to do with them.

In Leicestershire’s heavy soils, the damp footprint beneath the boot suggests a good seedbed and ideal growing conditions. However, dig a spade’s depth into the soil and it becomes evident the soil is still rather dry as a result of last year’s drought.  In fact, this winter has also been a relatively dry few months.  The crops survived last year’s drought because of the very wet spring, this year, the soil moisture is far lower than this time last year so crop will rely on reasonable rains this year to reach harvest safely.

Combinable Crops: January Update

Sterling is at its strongest point against the Euro for almost a year and a half (which lowers grain values), yet it is still only 4% stronger than it was when it started rising in early January. This means it has taken approximately £7.00 off the price of a tonne of wheat, and £13.00 from oilseed rape.  For many, this is the difference between a profit and a loss, but, equally, is not such a violent swing as we have seen in previous marketing years, when wheat price has shifted by far more in single days.

The grain market is relatively quiet; surprisingly high amounts of wheat remain unsold, despite some predictions from the trade that farmers would be sold ahead of Brexit.  In fact, the farming community being pro-Brexit on balance might see opportunities from selling later this year.  However, long-holders should be aware that the spread between old crop and new crop wheat currently sits at just under £20 per tonne, ex-farm.  Large price spreads like this have to close at some point which suggests either old crop is too dear or new crop is cheap.  The chart below shows the big step in prices as we look ahead to 2019-crop.

The discount from feed wheat to feed barley currently sits at about £10 per tonne, a comparatively small 6% of the wheat value.  Yet despite this, the discount is attractive to feed compounders.  Good quality malting barley retains a comfortable £30 per tonne premium over feed barley, but the market is currently thin with small volumes of new business being done.

The pulse market is also thin, with not many beans remaining unsold on farm.  The market is therefore starting to turn to new crop marketing; a difficult one as quality is unknowable at this time of year ahead of harvest.  The market has been strong though, with the price spread of feed beans over feed wheat having risen to over £50 per tonne: a margin not seen since the spring of 2015.  This is largely because of the small and damaged harvest of 2018 following the hot weather, coupled with political complexities within the global vegetable protein market at present.  Many farmers will be looking to secure more spring bean seed, although its availability is not clear, despite a derogation for certified seed to have a lower germination this year than usual.