Category: Arable

The Government has set out its intention to completely ban the use of Neonicotinoids, including ending the use of emergency authorisations.  The Neonicotinoids in question are Clothianidin, Imidaclopria and Thiamethoxam, which pose a risk to bees and other pollinators.  Under current pesticide legislation these are banned from general use within the UK, but emergency authorisation has been given (see article https://abcbooks.co.uk/emergency-sugar-beet-seed-treatment/) for Cruiser SB to protect sugar beet crops from virus yellows, in each of the last four years.  But to honour an election commitment, the Labour Government has said it will ‘first review and update the approach on applications for emergency authorisation in England.  The revised approach will set out how all future decisions on emergency authorisation take full account of the importance of pollinators.  We will also identify and assess potential changes to legislation’.

In terms of this year, Defra had said the current legal requirements for emergency authorisations were still in place and applications for 2025 would be considered under the law as it stands.  But it has now been confirmed that an emergency authorisation will not be allowed this year.  An application from the National Farmers Union and British Sugar for emergency authorisation to use Cruiser SB on sugar beet in England in 2025 has been denied.  Emergency authorisation can only be given if 5 tests are met;

• there must be a danger
• there must be special circumstances which make it appropriate to derogate from the standard approach to authorisations
• the danger must not be capable of being contained by any other reasonable means
• an emergency authorisation must appear necessary because of that danger
• an emergency authorisation may allow only limited and controlled use of the plant protection product

The Environment Minister, Emma Hardy, decided that the fourth test was not met and that emergency authorisation should not be granted.  The full Decision Statement can be found at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/neonicotinoid-product-as-seed-treatment-for-sugar-beet-emergency-authorisation-application/statement-of-reasons-for-the-decision-on-the-application-for-emergency-authorisation-of-the-use-of-cruiser-sb-on-sugar-beet-crops-in-england-in-2025.

Pesticide policy and regulation is a devolved issue and with regards to the Neonicotinoids Policy Statement it applies to England only.  However, the Government has said it will work with the devolved Governments to seek a ‘shared and consistent way forward’.

The announcement comes ahead of the publication of a new UK National Action Plan (NAP) which will set out how pesticides can be used sustainably.  The full Policy Statement can be found via https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/a-new-approach-to-the-use-of-certain-neonicotinoids-on-crops-grown-in-england?

The AHDB’s Weed Resistance Action Group (WRAG) has confirmed the first case of resistance to Glyphosate in the UK.  The incidence was found in Italian rye-grass (Lolium multi florum) on a farm in Kent, where the plants survived after Glyphosate was applied at the correct rate, time and conditions.  The population was from a site considered to have an elevated risk of developing Glyphosate resistant weeds.  Further testing by ADAS, under controlled conditions in a glasshouse, on plants grown from seeds collected on farm confirmed the resistance.

Since 2019, ADAS and NIAB have tested over 300 weed samples but to date there has been no indication of glyphosate resistance in any other sample screened.  However, AHDB has said a ‘small number’ of other cases are under investigation.  There have been some cases reported in Europe (2006 in Spain and 2012 in Italy) but, according to AHDB, most cases of Glyphosate resistance in Italian rye-grass have been in North and South America.

In responce to this case in Kent, ADAS will screen Italian rye-grass populations that survive Glyphosate applications (prior to drilling a spring crop).  These will be conducted on live plant samples submitted by farmers and advisors.

Defra has released the provisional summary of UK crop areas and combinable crop yields for harvest 2024.  The results confirm what a difficult year at has been for growers.  The latest figures show a decline in both the UK wheat area and yield resulting in a 20.3% reduction in grain production for 2024, at 11.15 million tonnes.

Total barley production is up on the year.  This is driven entirely by an increase in spring barley grown (+18.7%), as producers were unable to grow winter crops because of the wet autumn.  However, even with a 5.1% increase in area, the increased proportion of spring barley resulted in a 3.1% decline in average yield and total production was just 1.8% above year earlier levels at 7.1 million tonnes.  Oat output was up, with an increase in area, again as a result of growers switching from winter to spring crops and also a better yield than the previous year, although still not back to historic levels.  Growing OSR remains challenging, and the area has now fallen below 300,000 hectares; yields were also down resulting in a total UK production of just 823,000 tonnes, -32.3% compared with 2023.  Other significant changes on the year were combining peas, with the area planted up by 46%, another ‘winner’ as a consequence of the difficult autumn.

The table below summarises the data –

Following harvest 2024, we have updated the figures for our Loam Farm model.  This shows low profits from the previous cropping year.  In addition, the outlook for 2025 is not great.

Loam Farm is a notional 600 hectare business that has been used since 1991 to track the fortunes of British combinable cropping farms.  It is partly owned and partly rented and is based on real-life data.  It has one full-time worker and employs harvest casual labour.  It grows a range of cereals crops and has entered into an SFI agreement.  The table below provides a summary of the last three harvest years, and a budget for harvest 2025.

The farm is completing its grain sales from harvest 2024.  it has less to sell than average due to reduced yields – a result of the wet weather through the autumn of 2023 and spring of 2024.  Coupled with unexciting prices this means the output of the farm is reduced – some 35% on the 2022 harvest year – although it must be noted that this was an unusually good year.  Although variable costs have fallen, overheads have climbed.  This has resulted in a loss from production.  This year’s residual Basic Payment and the SFI the farm has entered offset this shortfall, but there is a low level of overall farm profitability.

We have commented before about the variability of results from harvest 2024.  Loam Farm is simply an illustration.  Some businesses will have had an ‘OK’ year (although very few are likely to have had a ‘good’ year).  But, equally, some combinable cropping farms will have fared worse than Loam Farm and are facing significant losses for the past year. 

Turning to the budget for harvest 2025, output is forecast to recover somewhat.  This is largely due to yields reverting to average rather than any firming in prices.  Loam Farm has managed to establish its crops this autumn despite some testing conditions.  With costs not changing greatly, profitabilty from production improves so that there is a positive return.  The sharp drop in the Basic Payment for 2025 can be seen – this is a result of payments being capped at £7,200 per farm.  Previously, Loam Farm was budgeting on BPS income of £58 per hectare.  The SFI income has risen as the farm has added some new SFI2024 options.  It shows how important this income stream has become to overall profitability.  

Farmers might have hoped that the small UK grain harvest would support prices.  However, it must be remembered that UK prices are largely determined by the global market.  Furthermore, the UK seems to have already imported enough grain to make up for the shortfall at harvest 2024.  In July to September, UK imports of wheat were nearly 900,000 tonnes, plus 640,000 tonnes of maize.  The high level of wheat imports includes Canadian and other origin high protein wheat, which is eroding milling premia.

Some support has been seen for grain prices towards the end of November, driven by the increased tensions surrounding the use of western weapons in Russia.  However, prices still remain subdued relative to the levels seen in recent years.

Prices of oilseed rape have responded to restricted availability of oilseed crops at the global level.  The International Grains Council (IGC) estimated in November that the supply and demand of soyabeans has tightened relative to earlier estimates, although stocks are still expected to increase year-on-year.  This, coupled with estimates of smaller oilseed rape crops in key growing regions of Ukraine, Europe and Australia, has lifted prices.  Values can be seen in Key Farm Facts.

One factor which had been supporting European pricing of oilseeds was the impeding EU Deforestation Regulations, which have been cast into doubt with EU Member States voting for the introduction of ‘no risk’ zones which will be extempt from regulation.

The UK could be heading for its smallest potato crop ever because of a combination of a reduced area and difficult growing conditions.

There are no official estimates of the UK’s planted area or harvested area yet – they will not arrive until next year when Defra releases them.  In 2023, it estimated the harvested area in the whole of the UK at 98,345 hectares – the smallest ever.  Opinion suggests that there was not a decrease in area this year, with most industry-watchers putting the area at around 100,000 hectares.

The official figures for 2023 put production at 4.704 million tonnes, following an average yield of 47.8 tonnes per hectare.  A repeat of that yield would result in a 4.783 million tonne crop.  Meanwhile, the average five-year between 2019 and 2023 was 45t per Ha, which, if delivered, would mean a crop of 4.500 million tonnes, the smallest on record – lower even than the 1975 harvest of 4.542 million tonnes.  However, there are reasons to believe that the crop could be even smaller, with World Potato Markets suggesting the average yield could be as low as 43t per Ha, delivering a crop of only 4.3 million tonnes.  That compares with more than seven million tonnes in 1992.

Another wet autumn means lifting has been difficult.  At the end of October more than 20% of the crop was still to be harvested, which was similar to last year but behind previous years.  Yields are said to be very variable depending on location and rain volumes.  The lack of potatoes has supported potato prices.  Newsletter Potato Call reports maincrop prices of £300 per tonne, with best quality well in excess of that.

The lack of British potatoes increases the need for imports.  Fresh potato imports were up 75% in the year to August, but only to 145,000 tonnes, according to HMRC data.  However, a much larger volume came in as processed frozen fries, with imports at almost 850,000 tonnes, reinforcing the UK’s position as the second largest importer in the world after the USA.  Almost all those imports are from Belgium and the Netherlands.

The EU potato crop is expected to be a little larger this year than last, with a lot of that growth taking place in France which has increased its processing capacity.  Current free-buy prices there are about €130 per tonne (£108 per t) with little expectation there will be similar increases to last year that saw values jump to €600 per t (£500) by the end of the 2023/24 season.

British growers may not increase their potato areas significantly in 2025 despite the support of good prices, because of the continued high cost of production, consolidation to those growers with adequate machinery and storage, and continued challenging weather conditions.