Tag: NI protocol

Windsor Framework Agreement

On 27th February, the UK Government and EU Commission reached an agreement on the implementation of the Northern Ireland (NI) Protocol – the ‘Windsor Framework’.  The deal emerged after months of, often arduous, negotiations and is heralded as a major breakthrough by both the UK and EU negotiators.  It is hoped that this framework will resolve the thorniest issue of the entire Brexit process and has been welcomed by most Northern Irish stakeholders, although the DUP have yet to give an official view on the Framework, which is not expected until April.

The key aspects of the agreement are:

  • Customs Procedures for Goods: there will be a ‘green lane’ for goods moving from Great Britain (GB) into NI which will be consumed in Northern Ireland and not deemed to be at risk of moving into the EU Single Market.  For such goods, nearly all customs procedures will be scrapped.  Goods deemed to be at risk of moving into the EU Single Market will be moved through a red lane, where EU border controls will apply.
  • Chilled Meats: products such as sausages which are sold in GB supermarkets will also be available in Northern Ireland, provided that they are shipped into Northern Ireland by trusted traders.  Chilled meats are usually prohibited from import into the EU Single Market or require arduous certification procedures (sometimes hundreds of certificates for a container with chilled meat and animal products for the retail sector).  This will now be replaced by a single document confirming that the goods will stay in Northern Ireland and are moved in line with the terms of the UK’s internal market scheme.  This is a significant concession from the EU.  It is also a sensible one on the basis that such products are for consumption in Northern Ireland and there is now real-time data on the movement of goods from GB to NI, giving the EU the visibility it needs to ensure that no fraudulent activity is taking place. Any physical or identity checks that do take place will be on a risk and intelligence-led basis, based on decisions by UK authorities.
  • Seed Potatoes, Plants and Trees: certain plant and crop products had been either prohibited from entry into NI from GB since January 2021, or required lengthy certification processes.  Such trade can now recommence under the provisions of the Windsor Framework.  This is seen as a big boost for the seed potato sector in particular.  However, seed potatoes will still be prohibited from being sold to the Republic of Ireland.
  • VAT and Excise Duties: the NI Protocol’s legal text has been amended so that the UK can set VAT and excise duties for the whole of the UK.  It means that the reforms to alcohol duties taking effect in the UK in the summer will now apply to NI, thus lowering the price of beer in NI pubs for instance.
  • Parcels and Online Shopping: no paperwork will be required for parcels moving from GB to NI.
  • Pet Travel: documentary requirements and associated treatments and inoculations that are usually required by the EU have been removed for travel between GB and NI.
  • Applicability of EU Law in Northern Ireland: has been reduced substantially (estimated by the NI Secretary to be 97%) and now only focuses on the ‘minimum necessary’ to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland.  The EU notes that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) will still have a final say on Single Market issues.  However, it is envisaged that its role will be greatly reduced due to the provisions outlined above and also because of the data sharing, labelling and enforcement procedures within the Windsor Framework.  This will help to safeguard the Single Market whilst also giving opportunities to resolve differences without having to revert to the ECJ.
  • ‘Stormont Brake’: this new mechanism is designed to give the Northern Irish Assembly the opportunity to pull an emergency brake on EU legislative changes which would apply in Northern Ireland.  It is designed to address concerns, particularly amongst Unionists, on what they perceive to be a democratic deficit of the NI Protocol as agreed in 2020.

For the brake to activate, it would require cross-community support and would need a minimum of 30 Assembly MLAs from at least 2 parties to agree to its activation.  The EU stresses that this can only be activated in exceptional and emergency circumstances, where there is a significant impact specific to everyday life in Northern Ireland.  It is also planned to have greater consultation between the UK and the EU on new EU legislation so as to minimise instances of the Stormont Brake being activated.  Once triggered, the UK Government would notify the EU of its activation.  The rule in question would automatically be suspended from coming into effect.  It could only then be reapplied if the UK and EU jointly agree.  If the suspension remains, the EU reserves the right to respond with remedial action to protect its Single Market.  For the Stormont Brake to become an option, it requires a functioning NI Assembly and is seen as a bid to get the NI Executive back up and running.

Overall, the Windsor Framework strikes a pragmatic and careful balance between the concerns of the UK Government and Unionists who wish to ensure that Northern Ireland remains an integral part of the UK, and of the EU in ensuring that its Single Market is protected.  With hindsight, it was the sort of balance that should have been struck when the original Protocol was negotiated in late 2020, but which ended up being rushed and was negotiated without enough attention to the nuance needed for the unique circumstances of Northern Ireland.  Importantly, by giving NI unfettered access to both the UK Internal Market and the EU Single Market, the Windsor Framework gives Northern Ireland the potential for strong economic growth, not just in agri-food but across NI industry generally. Undoubtedly, the Protocol will need further refinements in the years ahead as will the UK-EU trading relationship more generally.  This is as it should be, as trading relationships between near neighbours are constantly fine-tuned.  The US-Canada relationship is a prime example of this.

NI Protocol Deal

At the time of writing (morning of 27th February), it is expected that a deal will be imminently reached between the UK Government and the EU on the implementation of the Northern Ireland (NI) Protocol.  The European Commission President (Ursula von der Leyen) is travelling to the UK today for high-level talks with the Prime Minister to address the final list of issues which are said to require top-level scrutiny by both leaders.

It is said that the remaining issues centre primarily around the role for the Northern Ireland Assembly in having a say around how EU Law is applied in Northern Ireland.  Some also suggest that there will be further discussion around the role of the European Court of Justice, although this is mainly seen as an issue for the European Research Group (ERG) within the Conservative Party.

Although both the UK Government and the EU have remained tight-lipped about the details of the deal, it is widely believed that the deal will remove checks for goods crossing from Great Britain (GB) into NI which are destined for Northern Ireland only.  Key to achieving this has been the real-time access to shipments’ data on goods crossing from GB to NI which has enabled the EU to adopt a more flexible approach.

After meeting with Ursula von der Leyen, the Prime Minister will hold a virtual Cabinet Meeting to discuss the details of the deal (if agreed).  From there, Rishi Sunak will then brief the House of Commons in the evening.  Whilst the deal is imminent, there will still be significant hurdles to surmount including whether the DUP and the ERG wing of the Tory party will support it.  However, Labour has said that it will support the deal.  Many are hoping that this will be one of the last major moments in the Brexit saga.  With numerous other challenges to tackle, all key stakeholders, particularly agri-food businesses are keen for these issues to be resolved so that there can be some certainty on trading arrangements between GB, NI and the EU in the coming years.

As soon as the text of the deal emerges, we will update readers via an online article.

NI Protocol and Trade

With a deal on implementing the Northern Ireland (NI) Protocol supposedly imminent and with the Irish Central Statistics Office (CSO) releasing its latest trade data for 2022, it is an opportune time to examine the impact of the NI Protocol on agri-food trade on the Island of Ireland.

The chart below shows how agri-food trade for selected commodities has evolved in monetary (Sterling) terms between Northern Ireland and Ireland (Republic of Ireland (ROI) since 2017.  It shows that since the introduction of the NI Protocol from January 2021, which has enabled Northern Ireland to stay de-facto part of the EU Single Market for goods, that trade between NI and Ireland has increased substantially for most products.

Dairy trade has seen the most significant increases, with exports of dairy produce from NI to Ireland rising by 120% since 2020 (from £202m to £446m).  Imports in the opposite direction have also risen substantially from £169m to £427m.  Exports of beef from NI to Ireland have doubled since 2020 and are valued at £64 million in 2022.  Again, there has been a notable, though less sizeable, increase (25%) of beef imports into NI from Ireland.

Trade has also risen substantially for other commodities since 2020 with animal feedstuffs’ exports from NI to Ireland up by 125% (to £262m), whilst pigmeat exports have risen by 128% to £46m. Poultry meat exports in 2022 are estimated at £25.5m, 82% higher than in 2020.

The data presented in the chart above are in current terms.  In other words, they do not take account of inflation which has been significant across agri-food during 2022.  That said, given the increases reported on NI-Ireland trade, which has more than doubled in several cases, it is clear that the NI Protocol is having a significant impact on trade on the Island of Ireland.

This impact becomes clearer when agri-food trade between Ireland and NI is compared with trade between Ireland and Britain.  The table below shows that total agri-food trade for 2022 (imports and exports combined) between NI and Ireland is 80% higher than in 2020, whilst Ireland’s agri-food trade with Britain has fallen by 6%.  This shows the clear impact of the imposition of regulatory barriers on trade between Ireland and Britain as a result of the implementation of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the UK and the EU in January 2021.

Within this, it is also notable that exports from Ireland to Britain are 12% higher in 2022 versus 2020, whilst imports into Ireland from Britain are 26% lower over the same period.  This shows the clear impact of the imposition of regulatory controls by EU Authorities (including in Ireland) on imports from the UK (GB) from January 2021.  At the same time, the UK has continued to delay the imposition of its regulatory controls (previously called its Border Operating Model, and now termed as its Target Operating Model) until late 2023.

Overall, the CSO trade data reveals that all-island trade has increased substantially as a result of the NI Protocol and supply-chains on the island of Ireland have become much more integrated.  Within this, there is also a noticeable shift in Ireland away from importing from Britain (which is now subject to regulatory controls) and sourcing more locally from Northern Ireland where there is unfettered trade.

Of course, the CSO data does not assess how NI trade with Britain (GB) has performed during this time.  It is important to highlight that NI continues to have unfettered access to the GB market for its exports and the various grace periods implemented by the UK Government have, thus far, limited the imposition of regulatory checks on produce moving from GB to NI.  The extent to which this trade will be affected in future is of course contingent on the detail of any agreement between the UK and the EU on implementing the NI Protocol.  We will be analysing this detail as soon as it becomes available.

NI Protocol Negotiations

Negotiations between the UK and the EU on making amendments to the Northern Ireland (NI) Protocol have dominated the trade agenda in recent weeks.  There have been promising signs of progress, although significant hurdles need to be overcome if an agreement is to be reached by April (to coincide with the 25th anniversary of the Belfast Good Friday Agreement).

The announcement, on 9th January, of a data sharing agreement between the UK and the EU is key development as it permits the EU to gain real-time access to data on goods movements between Great Britain (GB) and NI.  The EU sees this as a critical pre-requisite towards rebuilding trust in UK-EU relations and in permitting the EU to consider introducing greater flexibility in how regulatory checks on goods coming from GB into NI are undertaken.  However, this data-sharing agreement is only a first step and there are serious differences to reconcile in other areas.

Most notably, an agreement on the levels of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) and Customs checks on goods remains unresolved.  This is especially important for agri-food trade.  Previously, the UK had proposed a ‘green channel’ at ports which would permit goods destined to stay in Northern Ireland to be waved through without customs paperwork.  A ‘red channel’ would be set-up for shipments destined for the Republic of Ireland.  This set-up would be complemented by a Trusted Trader scheme and fines to minimise non-compliance.  Such proposals were dismissed by the EU as being insufficient to protect the integrity of its Single Market.

Back in October 2021, the EU proposed an ‘express lane’ for goods destined to stay in NI, although Customs paperwork would still be required.  At the time, these proposals were dismissed by both the UK Government and the DUP as being unacceptable because of the border it would create on the Irish Sea which would undermine the integrity of the UK.

The current negotiations are focusing on finding a landing zone between the green channel and express lane approaches.  If this conundrum could be resolved, a pathway towards an agreement between the UK Government and the EU should emerge.  However, concerns persist as to whether the DUP would accept this.  So, whilst the mood music has changed and progress is being made, it remains premature to expect an agreement yet.  Talks are likely to continue until April and beyond. What might yet emerge is a ‘fudge’ based on more temporary arrangements similar to the extension of the grace period for checks on veterinary medicines traded between GB and NI agreed last month. 

Veterinary Medicines from GB to NI

On Monday, 19th December, the EU Commission’s Brexit Chief Negotiator announced an extension to the grace period, covering the supply of veterinary medicines from Great Britain (GB) to Northern Ireland (NI), to December 2025 in order to give industry ‘ample time’ to adapt to the new regulatory arrangements that will eventually be required.  The current grace period was due to expire at the end of this year.  Many businesses were concerned about the continuity of supply of veterinary medicines as NI, which is still inside the EU’s regulatory system for pharmaceutical products due to the NI Protocol, sources most of its supplies from GB which is no longer subject to EU regulations.  There was concern that if the grace period was not extended, there would be severe shortages in Northern Ireland.  In announcing the extension, the EU is keen to show that it is able to develop practical solutions to resolving issues with the Protocol.  The UK Government also welcomed the announcement.  It is hoped that increased EU flexibility in areas such as this will create the ‘landing zone’ needed to develop a more long-lasting solution to the NI Protocol challenges.  Business groups including the British Veterinary Association also welcomed the announcement.

EU Proposals on NI Protocol Flexibilities

On 15th June, the EU Commission published two position papers fleshing out its October proposals (click here for more detail) on the additional flexibilities that it could offer on the operation of the NI Protocol.  In a widely expected move, the Commission simultaneously announced that it was unfreezing legal proceedings that it had initiated against the UK last year but halted in July 2021 to facilitate further negotiations on the Protocol.

The Commission’s position papers are aimed at providing solutions to key aspects of the impasse surrounding the operation of the NI Protocol on the movement of goods from GB to NI.  These papers focus on Customs and Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) rules respectively.

Customs Flexibilities

The Commission’s proposals seek to dramatically reduce customs formalities and costs for goods deemed not at risk of being subsequently moved into the (European) Union.  Here, the EU proposes to widen the scope of the previously proposed Trusted Traders Scheme (UK Traders Scheme) to encompass more companies, including SMEs.  This means that such traders would be regarded as shipping goods ‘not at risk’ of entering the single market.

The Commission also proposes that such traders could avail of a ‘super-reduced data set’.  They claim that this would reduce the number of data elements on a customs declaration falling from 80 to 21.  This would also include simplifying commodity code requirements (i.e, entries would be based on 8-digits as opposed to 10-digits).  The need for supplementary declarations would also be abolished for such traders.

In addition, the Commission is also open to looking at added flexibilities where there is evidence that traders have been adversely affected by the implementation of the Protocol as well as further flexibilities for NI firms processing GB inputs.

SPS Rules

The Commission paper proposes that a much reduced regime of controls would be available to ‘authorised retailers’ operating in NI and their GB-based suppliers.  These would be available to traders regardless of size and would be expanded to include the hospitality sector, schools, canteens, and supermarket distribution centres, on the proviso that the food would be packed and labelled for end consumers in Northern Ireland.

One notable proposal is that of a ‘single simplified official certificate’ being required for each lorry load of mixed retail goods.  This certificate would be signed by a UK Competent Authority and would replace the potentially numerous official certificates that would be required for such loads if the Protocol was fully implemented in its current form.  The Commission also claims that documentary checks could be performed electronically and that identity and physical checks could be reduced by 80%.

The Commission has claimed that these flexibilities will require changes to EU laws, including its sensitive food safety regulations.  This would be subject to some preconditions and safeguards implemented on the UK side.

UK Government Reaction

Given the publication of its NI Protocol Bill a couple of days beforehand which effectively supplants the existing NI Protocol, it was unsurprising that the Government’s initial reaction was negative.  It claimed that the implementation of the EU’s proposals would mean a worsening of the current trading situation (note: grace periods are still in place for some agri-food products). Also, despite the EU’s proposed facilitations for products such as chilled mince or sausages, Veterinary Certificates would still be required.  Instead, the UK wants EU Member States to give the Commission a mandate to renegotiate the entire Protocol – something that the EU side is adamant will not happen.

Overall, whilst the EU Commission’s positions papers represent some movement, its latest flexibilities are still predicated on the October 2021 proposals.  It is apparent that they do not go far enough for the UK side.  Also, NI business groups, whilst seeing these position papers as a basis for further discussions, would like to see more flexibility from the EU side.  The EU Commission has emphasised that it stands ready to re-engage in negotiations with the UK Government to solve the remaining Protocol issues.   What is clear is that the basis of a ‘landing zone’ is visible. There is common ground between the UK Government’s green lane proposals in the NI Protocol Bill and the EU’s express lane approach, initially put forward last October. But, much more work is needed for both sides to reach common ground across all issues. 

The EU Commission’s position papers are accessible via the links below;

 

Northern Ireland Protocol Bill

On 13th June, the UK Government introduced the Northern Ireland (NI) Protocol Bill to the House of Commons. The highly controversial Bill, if enacted, would dis-apply large swathes of the NI Protocol which was agreed between the UK and the EU as part of the Withdrawal Agreement negotiations.  The Bill’s legal text which is highly complex and potentially far-reaching drew harsh criticism from multiple sources. It has been met with particular disdain by the EU which sees the Bill as a breach of international law and the Commission is set to respond in the near future. At a top-level, the Bill seeks to do three things;

  1. Disapplies large parts of the Protocol: relating to most provisions that apply EU rules on the movement of goods into NI.
  2. UK’s Protocol alternative: is outlined and the UK Government provides some guidance on how it would be implemented.
  3. European Court of Justice oversight: the Bill would remove the Court’s direct jurisdiction and the role for EU institutions

In essence, the Bill is effectively rewriting the Protocol, in a unilateral manner, outside of the structures agreed by the UK Government and the EU.  Whilst the political fall-out will continue to generate intense debate, it is the accompanying policy paper which provides practical insights on how the Bill would work and the implications for agri-food. The key points are;

  • Establish new ‘green channel’ arrangements for goods staying in the UK: it is claimed that this would fix the burdens and bureaucracy caused by the application of EU Customs and SPS rules.  This channel would only be available to firms registered as ‘trusted traders’ and this scheme would be overseen by UK Authorities.  Goods moving on to the EU or moved by firms not in the trusted traders’ scheme would use the ‘red lane’ and be subject to the full range of regulatory checks.  This would significantly reduce the sometimes complex certification requirements for agri-food produce.  Here, the UK proposals are not that far from the EU proposals published last October which suggested an ‘Express Lane’ for goods moved by trusted traders which would be consumed in Northern Ireland. 
  • Establish a new ‘dual regulatory’ model: this is intended to provide flexibility for NI firms to choose between UK or EU rules on product standards.  It is intended to remove barriers to trade within the UK internal market and the UK Government claims that it will encompass robust commitments to protect the EU Single Market.  For agri-food, goods could only move from GB to NI under the trusted trader scheme (otherwise they would be in the red lane and subject to checks).  There would be robust penalties for violations.  The EU strongly objects to this proposal on the grounds that it undermines the integrity of its Single Market.  There are also challenges around the bureaucratic complexities involved with dealing with two regulatory systems. Major NI agri-food businesses are also against these proposals as it would scare-off overseas customers from purchasing NI produce as they would be unsure on which standards the products are adhering to and would be deemed too complex and risky.
  • State Aid and VAT: the UK Government states that the Protocol restricts the UK from providing the same tax and spend policies in NI as the rest of the UK—with little room for flexibility.  This aspect of the Protocol was insisted upon by the EU so that there was a level playing field between NI and the EU Single Market and that NI firms, or GB firms with operations in NI, did not gain an unfair advantage.  The new Bill gives the UK freedom to disapply these rules so that NI can have the same tax rules as other parts of the UK.  Again, the EU strongly objects to these proposals.
  • Role of European Court of Justice (CJEU): would be removed in dispute settlement and would provide the means for UK Authorities and Courts to set out the arrangements which apply in Northern Ireland.  This is also highly controversial from an EU perspective as it would not have agreed the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with the UK if the CJEU did not have ultimate oversight over the NI  Protocol.

Whilst the full EU response is awaited, it has confirmed on 15th June it is restarting the legal proceedings it had initiated last year against the UK Government for its unilateral extension of grace periods for checks on products such as sausages and mince.  These had been suspended for almost a year to facilitate negotiations on addressing the Protocol issues.  The EU response is also likely to state that it reserves the right to enact much more stringent measures if this NI Protocol Bill becomes law in the UK.  This would include suspending key aspects of the TCA or introducing some tariffs on UK exports to the EU.  That said, the EU will also be keen to get the UK back to the negotiating table and the Commission has set-out further proposals on how it thinks the outstanding issues on the NI Protocol should be dealt with.

From an agri-food perspective, it is important to note that the House of Lords will vote against this Bill, thus delaying its enactment for at least a year.  This gives time for further negotiations to take place.  However, additional negotiating time has been wasted in the past.  Breaching International Law (which legal experts almost entirely agree would happen if this Bill were to be enacted)) is not the way to build trust.  What is needed now is quiet and determined diplomacy to reach a deal that all parties can live with.

NI agri-food businesses are adamant that the Protocol delivers major benefits in enabling NI to access the EU Single Market whilst having unfettered access to GB.  As we have mentioned previously, a UK-EU veterinary agreement would help greatly to reduce the burden of checks, not just GB to NI but also GB to the EU.  On this, the EU needs to be more flexible.  The UK will not opt for a Swiss-style veterinary agreement as that would mean following EU rules for the whole of the UK.  A bespoke veterinary agreement should be a key part of the framework to resolve the remaining Protocol issues.

Northern Ireland Protocol Wrangling

On 17 May, the Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, made a statement in the House of Commons on the Government’s intention to introduce legislation to make changes to the Northern Ireland (NI) Protocol.  During her statement, the Foreign Secretary stated that her preference remains a negotiated solution with the EU.  To this end, she invited European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič to a meeting of the Withdrawal Agreement Joint Committee.  However, she also said that various aspects of the Protocol are not working.  She stated that the new Bill would address these issues whilst claiming it would also uphold the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement and be consistent with international law – points that the EU, in particular, disagrees with.

The new Bill, due to come before Parliament in the coming weeks would focus on addressing issues around;

  • The movement of goods: particularly relevant to agri-food, where the Protocol is not yet fully functional in some areas as a result of the grace periods already put in place by the UK Government for products such as sausages and mince
  • Goods regulation: also of relevance to agri-food, and concerns NI having to follow EU rules for goods which has precedence in NI over rules that the UK might introduce in the future (which could diverge from the EU)
  • VAT: NI remains within the EU’s regulatory orbit for VAT on goods
  • Subsidy control: the EU’s State Aid rules are applicable to NI and, in some instances, British based companies that do business in NI.
  • Governance: this links with the oversight that the European Court of Justice has over the NI Protocol.

The Foreign Secretary stated that the Bill would include a Trusted Trader scheme, effectively a ‘green channel’ for goods imported from GB and staying in Northern Ireland.  It would also encompass the provision of real-time data to the EU with the intent of giving them confidence that goods intended for NI do not enter the EU Single Market, via the Republic of Ireland.

A dual regulatory regime is also suggested so that NI could follow UK rules for goods that would stay in Northern Ireland.  Effectively, businesses would choose between producing goods to UK or to EU standards in Northern Ireland.  Liz Truss also stated that robust penalties would be imposed for those seeking to abuse the proposed new system and promised further detail in the coming weeks.

Unilaterally disapplying key parts of the NI Protocol via UK legislation has the potential to place the whole post-Brexit trading arrangements between the UK and the EU in jeopardy.  Whilst the EU has been somewhat muted in its response, Maroš Šefčovič clearly stated that the EU would respond ‘with all measures at its disposal’ should the UK follow through and enact legislation to override the NI Protocol.  However, we remain several steps away from retaliatory action being taken.

If a Bill is brought before Parliament in the coming weeks, it needs to go through Parliamentary approval process.  Most believe that the House of Lords would almost certainly vote against the Bill.  This would mean a delay by one year to the Bill’s enactment.  Some suggest that 20th June 2023 to be a potential key date, if the Bill gets to the final House of Lords vote by 20th June this year.

This gives some time for the UK and the EU to reach a negotiated solution. For agri-food businesses, it is unlikely that much will change in the interim.

There is a delicate balancing act required between the UK seeking to rewrite large chunks of the Protocol on the one hand and the EU Commission not having the mandate from EU Member States to renegotiate the Protocol on the other.  That said, there is the scope for all parties to improve the Protocol and this must be the focus.

As we have stated in the past, a veterinary agreement between the UK and the EU would go a long way towards addressing the most problematic Protocol issues around the movement of agri-food goods between Britain and NI.  This could be along the lines of the veterinary agreements that New Zealand has with the UK and the EU.  This would still give the UK the ability to negotiate free trade deals with third countries.  It would mean that some checks would remain, but at greatly reduced levels (e.g., 1% physical checks versus the default 15% for red meat).  The DUP NI Agriculture Minister, Edwin Poots, has suggested a similar concept in the past. 

It is most likely that a way will, eventually, be found to muddle through the current issues as this is what has occurred with the Brexit process to date.  We are probably into the territory of having Protocol 2.0, 3.0 etc. in the coming years.  This will most likely align, to some degree, with the vote that the NI Assembly will have on the Protocol every 4 years.  In some ways, this would be akin to new versions of MS Windows that Microsoft brings to the market periodically – each new version is fundamentally the same operating system (Protocol) but with scope for improvements, even if certain aspects remain imperfect to some. 

Further detail on the Foreign Secretary’s Statement to the House of Commons is available via: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/northern-ireland-protocol-foreign-secretarys-statement-17-may-2022

Trade Update

In comparison with previous years, the negotiations relating to Brexit went relatively quiet over the Christmas period.  With the Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, assuming the responsibilities of Chief Brexit negotiator, it is hoped that a breakthrough can be achieved on the remaining issues, particularly the Northern Ireland Protocol.  There have been lengthy lorry queues on the approach to Dover this month – a reminder, if one was needed, that Brexit is not yet done and we’re into the era of ongoing Brexit.

NI Protocol

In mid-January, Liz Truss met her EU counterpart Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič at Chevening House (Kent) in what was described as a cordial atmosphere.  Whilst the tone between both parties has improved, significant issues relating to the NI Protocol remain.  Some of these such as the European Court of Justice (ECJ) oversight and the extent of the removal of regulatory checks on goods from GB destined for NI are well-known.  The EU was surprised by the extent to which the Foreign Secretary pushed for the removal of the approval system for State Aid under the Protocol (i.e. Government subsidies to companies with operations in NI that trade with the EU).  Whilst the EU are open to looking at ways of speeding up the notification and approval system for State Aid to NI-based companies, they are unlikely to agree to its removal.

Similarly, for regulatory checks, its (limited) proposals in October (see previous article) showed that the EU is willing to offer some flexibility on the extent of checks and it claimed that Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) checks on meat and dairy could be reduced by half whilst customs checks could be reduced by 80%.  However, the EU will not countenance their removal as they are seen as vital to protecting the Single Market.

Both parties have agreed to intensify talks from late January with the ambition of concluding talks by the end of February to resolve the remaining issues.  With the NI Assembly elections taking place in May, both sides would be keen to have the lingering issues resolved by then.  Much will depend on the extent to which Liz Truss will be prepared to compromise to do a deal.    Ultimately, both sides will need to show some more flexibility if there is to be an agreement.

Dover Queues

On 21st January, there were 17-mile tailbacks on approach to Dover.  In normal circumstances, there is usually a rebuilding of trade volumes following the Christmas period and it would appear that this coupled with the impact of absences due to Covid and Brexit-related checks (which have been imposed on UK to EU trade since January 2021) have caused the delays.  The situation has improved somewhat since, although there is concern that with the introduction of biometric checks for entry into the EU from September will lead to more substantial delays.  Of course, significant delays at borders between countries is not uncommon.  Similar issues arise at the US-Canada border, despite there being a free-trade agreement between both countries.

That said, the UK-EU situation could be improved significantly if the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) was enhanced further.  From an agricultural perspective, a veterinary agreement between both parties would be helpful, even if it is more akin to a NZ-style agreement which only cuts the volume of checks at the border, but does not remove the need for health certificates.  It is also evident that some form of agreement on mobility provisions is required to make work activities in the EU less onerous and to pre-empt issues caused by the introduction of biometric checks.  Improvements to the rules of origin provisions of the TCA to help to make it easier for goods with inputs from multiple sources to qualify for tariff-free trade would also help.

Overall, recurring queues at Dover will be an ongoing feature of UK-EU trade.  These can be mitigated to a large extent by a more pragmatic approach from both the UK and EU authorities but it may take some time before the political will is there to make such accommodations.

NI Protocol Proposals

Proposals to simplify the operation of the Northern Ireland Protocol would see checks on consumer goods arriving from Great Britain drop by an estimated 80% as well as a greater role for NI institutions in the operation of the Protocol.

The plans come from the European Commission and aim to address the difficulties that Northern Ireland has been experiencing as a result of the NI Protocol.  This is the arrangement put in place via the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement to avert a hard border on the island of Ireland.  However, by keeping NI in the Single Market for goods it meant the introduction of customs and regulatory checks on products entering NI from GB.  This has angered Unionists who see a threat to the integrity of the UK and has also caused practical problems in the supply of goods – especially foodstuffs.

The Commission has published four ‘non-papers’ suggesting further flexibilities on key areas, as outlined below. These proposals are applicable to GB-NI trade only and don’t affect the significant trade friction on GB-EU trade. For agri-food, the proposals on SPS are the most important.

  • Food, Animal and Plant Health (Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) regulations): proposes the following;
    1. ‘Simplified access’ (simplified certification and reduction of physical checks) for GB-NI movements of a significant range of retail goods (destined solely for sale to end consumers in NI retail shops).
      • Simplified certification: means that if a truck load of agri-food goods destined for an NI retail distribution centre contained 100 products subject to SPS regulations (but are not prohibited/restricted), just one simplified official certificate would be required stating that the goods meet EU standards, as opposed to the default of 100 health certificates. 
      • Reduced checks: documentary checks would remain compulsory and would be carried out remotely (electronically).  Identity and physical checks would need to be performed at Border Control Posts but could be reduced substantially with a focus on risk-based management principles.  The Commission claims that regulatory checks could reduce by approximately 80% although it is unclear how such an estimate was reached. 
      • Exemptions for ‘identity products’: such as Cumberland sausages and other chilled meats brought in from GB for final consumption in NI, provided such products remain aligned with the EU’s standards.
    2. Conditions for simplified access include;
      • Labelling: products packed for consumers need to be labelled accordingly and should be only permitted for sale in the UK.
      • Goods sold to other operators (e.g. farmers or food processors) would be excluded from these arrangements.
      • Origin: simplified access would only be applicable to goods originating in the UK as defined by the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA).
      • Monitoring: these facilitations would only be available to “authorised traders” and the EU would need to have access to NI databases for verification purposes and to monitor trade flows.
    3. Safeguards include a review clause as well as the following mechanisms;
      • Compliance verification mechanism: via audits and on-site inspections of traders by the EU Commission and Union representatives in NI.
      • Unilateral measures by the EU: to suspend or revoke facilitations in the case of the UK failing to react to or to remedy an identified problem.
      • Rapid reaction mechanism: to identified problems in relation to individual products or traders.
  • Customs: the EU proposals are aimed at dramatically reducing customs formalities and costs for goods deemed “not at risk of being subsequently moved into the (European) Union”.  These are essentially goods for final consumption in Northern Ireland, effectively creating an “express lane” upon arrival in NI for such goods.  Whilst further detail will be required on how these reduced formalities would operate in practice, the EU is again seeking access to ‘real-time’ data to ensure that the Single Market is protected. 
  • Medicines: focuses on ensuring undisrupted medical supplies from GB to NI for the benefit of patients in NI.  Whilst of limited relevance to agriculture, the EU is ready to continue discussions with the UK to help to ensure continuity of veterinary medicines supply to in Northern Ireland. 
  • Engagement with NI Stakeholders: sets out proposals for how NI stakeholders, including business groups and Assembly members, can play a more active role in how the Protocol is implemented to ensure greater transparency.  This would be done via the Joint Committee and Specialised Committee overseeing the Protocol’s implementation (e.g. on SPS rules) as well as via the EU-UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly.  

Taken together, the Commission believes that these proposals represent a different model for implementing the NI Protocol, facilitating the highest degree of frictionless trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, whilst continuing to protect the Single Market.   The proposals do not propose any amendments to the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) which the EU sees as fundamental to the functioning of the Single Market and Northern Ireland’s unique position.  The UK Government is likely to take issue with this, as it sees the ECJ’s continued involvement in UK matters as a ‘red-line’.  However, one does have to question how important the ECJ’s role is in practical terms for most businesses and consumers?  In any case, there might be scope for an arrangement similar to the EU-Switzerland relationship where the ECJ has a more ‘arms length’ oversight of Swiss law. 

The EU Commission’s proposals represent a significant shift in position and whilst more detail is needed on the specifics, they provide a firm basis for substantive negotiations to address the key Protocol difficulties.  Attention now shifts towards how the UK Government will respond.  Initial indications are positive.  Further turbulence is expected in the coming weeks as both sides negotiate.  If implemented with careful consideration of both communities, the Protocol has the potential to offer Northern Ireland ‘the best of both worlds’ in terms of being an integral part of the UK and enjoying frictionless access to the EU Single Market for goods.  It could, therefore, be a major driver of economic growth across NI and within the agri-food sector in particular. 

Further detail on the EU Commission’s proposals is accessible via; https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/relations-non-eu-countries/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement/protocol-ireland-and-northern-ireland_en#october-2021-package