Tag: lamb

UK/New Zealand Trade Deal Signed

On 28th February, the UK and New Zealand signed the UK-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA), formalising the agreement-in-principle which was announced in October 2021 (see https://abcbooks.co.uk/uk-new-zealand-trade-deal/).  The FTA is similar in nature to the UK-Australia FTA announced in December.  The deal is seen by the UK Government as another important step towards joining the Comprehensive and Progressive agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).  The agreement will now be laid before Parliament for scrutiny.

The key points are;

  • Tariffs: upon entry into force, 100% of tariffs on UK goods exports to NZ will be removed whilst tariffs on 99.5% of goods imports into the UK from NZ will immediately be removed.
  • Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs): will remain for the most sensitive product being imported into the UK including:
    • Beef: access would be limited by tariff rate quota (TRQ) in the first 10 years. This would commence with access to a duty-free transitional quota of 12,000 tonnes in year 1, rising in equal instalments to 38,820 tonnes in year 10.  Any beef imports above the annual TRQ allowance would be subject to the UK Global Tariff (UKGT).  In the subsequent 5 years (year 11-15 after entry into force) a product-specific safeguard will be applied on any beef imports exceeding a further volume threshold rising in equal instalments from just over 40,000 tonnes in year 11 to 60,000 tonnes in year 15. All TRQ allowances are on a product weight basis. All tariffs would be eliminated from year 16 onwards. 
    • Lamb: access would operate in a similar manner to beef, although tariff-free TRQ access would be managed in a series of step-changes as opposed to annual incremental increases and the allowances are calculated on a carcase-weight basis which is somewhat more limited than a product weight basis.  In years 1-5, an additional 35,000 tonnes per year could be imported tariff-free.  This, of course, is in addition to the 114,000 tonnes of the WTO TRQ that New Zealand has historically had available.  During years 5-15, the tariff-free access will increase to 50,000 tonnes per annum followed by unlimited access in year 16.  Importantly, trade via the FTA TRQ can only commence once utilisation of the WTO TRQ has reached 90%.  Any imports exceeding the FTA TRQ will be subject to the UKGT tariff rate. 
    • Dairy: similar structures will also operate for dairy products with unlimited access being phased in over 5 years.
      • Butter: initial duty-free TRQ of 7,000 tonnes rising to 15,000 tonnes in year 5.
      • Cheese: there will be an initial duty-free TRQ of 24,000 tonnes in year 1, increasing incrementally to 48,000 tonnes in year 5.
    • Fresh Apples: given the seasonal nature of production in both countries, tariffs on imports into the UK from 1st January to 31st July would be eliminated as soon as the deal comes into force.  Imports during August to December will be liberalised over 3 years.  During this time, there will be a tariff-free TRQ of 20,000 tonnes per year.  All fresh apple imports from NZ would then be tariff-free and quota-free from year 4 onwards. 

Sources: UK Government and Andersons

  • Customs Procedures: the deal is ambitious with respect to minimising customs procedures and the promotion of e-certification.
  • Rules of Origin (RoO): are set to remain standard for agri-food – i.e. a threshold of 15% of products traded can be non-originating from the country of origin (i.e. UK or NZ) in order to gain tariff-free access.  The RoO for automotive vehicles (25% originating materials as opposed to the standard 55% threshold) will become much more liberalised.  This is seen as a big gain for the UK, given the extent of its integration with EU supply-chains. 
  • Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Measures: the The FTA seeks to minimise barriers in the area.  Both countries are to recognise equivalence where both countries have similar standards and the deal will function in parallel with the existing UK-NZ Sanitary (Veterinary) agreement.  The UK Government is also keen to emphasise that the deal “does not create any new permissions or authorisations for imports from New Zealand and does not compromise on our high environmental protection, animal welfare, plant health, and food standards.”
  • Animal Welfare: has a dedicated chapter in the agreement which includes non-regression and non-derogation clauses which the Government intends that neither country will lower its animal welfare requirements in a manner which impacts trade. There is also an ambition to work together internationally to encourage greater animal welfare standards and research cooperation on animal welfare issues. 

Overall, the main thrust of the UK-NZ FTA is very similar to the previous agreement-in-principle and is quite similar to the FTA that the UK has agreed with Australia.  As such, it creates another precedent for future trade deals.  It is clear that the UK has offered enhanced market access for NZ agri-food suppliers in return for greater access to the NZ automotive and services sectors.  The cumulative impact of these trade deals is also important.  Whilst there is a 15-year transition period for beef, by year 14, the combined Australian and NZ TRQs (~214Kt) access will have surpassed recent years’ annual imports from Ireland (204Kt).  That said, just because TRQ access is available, it does not mean that it will be fulfilled as Asia-Pacific will remain very important to Antipodean suppliers. 

Finally, in the case of NZ, it must be acknowledged that whilst there are some differences in its standards versus the UK, its standards are very closely aligned.  Something that the EU also acknowledges in its veterinary agreement with NZ.  Therefore, whilst the competitive pressure will increase, the playing field is quite level in this instance.  What UK farming needs needs to do is to focus much more on improving its market orientation (i.e. focus on satisfying consumer needs profitably and sustainably) and to improve its value proposition and marketing generally, both at home and abroad.  That is its best chance to successfully competing with the likes of NZ in the long-term.

More information on the UK-NZ FTA is available via: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-new-zealand-free-trade-agreement

Australia and NZ Trade Agreements

Trade deals with Australia and New Zealand (NZ) have been announced with much fanfare over recent months.  However, progress has stalled in converting these agreements-in-principle into legal texts.  The target that this would be concluded by the end of the year now looks unlikely.

It is claimed that this is chiefly due to the UK rowing-back on the market access offered on beef and lamb so that the annual tariff-free quotas are based on carcase weight equivalent and not product weight (i.e. products shipped such as boneless beef or legs of lamb).  A carcase weight equivalent basis would essentially mean that there would be less scope for Antipodean suppliers to export high-value beef and lamb cuts to the UK market and capture the shares of British producers.

Whilst the proposed EU-Mercosur trade agreement (which is being stalled by EU Member States) provided tariff-free quotas based on carcase weight equivalents, such arrangements are the exception in international Free-Trade Agreements (FTAs).  As the UK has formally applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which Australia and NZ are members of, both countries are threatening to stall the UK’s application if their tariff-free market access for beef and lamb are calculated on this basis.

It remains to be seen how the impasse will be resolved, but one suspects that given the UK Government’s eagerness to join the CPTPP, it will concede on offering both countries access based on product weight.  This would mean some increased competition for UK producers and exporters from the EU but, as previous articles have noted, both Australia and NZ are heavily focused on the Asia-Pacific markets presently, thus limiting their capability to supply the UK market as well.

UK / New Zealand Trade Deal

The UK and New Zealand have announced an agreement in principle on a Free Trade Deal (FTA).  The deal, announced on the 20th October, is similar in nature to the UK-Australia trade deal announced back in June.  Like the Australian FTA, the UK-NZ FTA agreement-in-principle is subject to further negotiations on the legal text.  Whilst there is an eventual aspiration to fully liberalise agri-food trade, there are adjustment periods for several agri-food products which the UK deems to be sensitive.  These include;

  • Beef: access would be limited by tariff rate quota (TRQ) in the first 10 years. This would commence with access to a duty-free transitional quota of 12,000 tonnes in year 1, rising in equal instalments to 38,820 tonnes in year 10.  Any beef imports above the annual TRQ allowance would be subject to the UK Global Tariff (UKGT).  In the subsequent 5 years (year 11-15 after entry into force) a product-specific safeguard will be applied on any beef imports exceeding a further volume threshold rising in equal instalments to 60,000 tonnes.  All tariffs would be eliminated from year 16 onwards. 
  • Lamb: access would operate in a similar manner to beef although tariff-free TRQ access would be managed in a series of step-changes as opposed to annual incremental increases.  In years 1-5, an additional 35,000 tonnes per year could be imported tariff-free.  This, of course, is in addition to the 114,000 tonnes of the WTO TRQ that New Zealand has historically had available.  During years 5-15, the tariff-free access will increase to 50,000 tonnes per annum followed by unlimited access in year 16.  Importantly, trade via the FTA TRQ can only commence once utilisation of the WTO TRQ has reached 90%.  Any imports exceeding the FTA TRQ will be subject to the UKGT tariff rate. 
  • Dairy: similar structures will also operate for dairy products with unlimited access being phased in over 5 years.
    • Butter: initial duty-free TRQ of 7,000 tonnes rising to 15,000 tonnes in year 5.
    • Cheese: there will be an initial duty-free TRQ of 24,000 tonnes in year 1, increasing incrementally to 48,000 tonnes in year 5.
  • Fresh Apples: given the seasonal nature of production in both countries, tariffs on imports into the UK from 1st January to 31st July would be eliminated as soon as the deal comes into force.  Imports during August to December will be liberalised over 3 years.  During this time, there will be a tariff-free TRQ of 20,000 tonnes per year.  All fresh apple imports from NZ would then be tariff-free and quota-free from year 4 onwards. 

Elsewhere, the deal is ambitious with respect to trade facilitation and the minimising of customs procedures in particular.  There are ambitions to promote e-certification where possible.  Whilst Rules of Origin (RoO) for agri-food remain quite standard (i.e. a threshold of 15% of products traded can be non-originating from the country of origin (i.e. UK or NZ) in order to gain tariff-free access, the RoO for automotive vehicles (25% originating materials as opposed to the standard 55% threshold) will become much more liberalised.  This is seen as a big gain for the UK, given the extent of its integration with EU supply-chains.  The agreement also seeks to reduce barriers in the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) area.  Both countries are to recognise equivalence where both countries have similar standards. 

Overall, it is evident that the market access offered to NZ suppliers is significant and that agri-food has been used by UK negotiators as a means to open up access in other areas (e.g. automotive and services).  It can also be seen that the Australian FTA announced has become an important precedent for future trade deals.  Taking both the NZ and Australian trade deals together, significant competitive pressure will be exerted on domestic British producers and traditional suppliers from the EU, particularly Ireland.  Looking at beef for example, in year 1 both countries could theoretically export 47,000 tonnes of beef to the UK, rising to 148,820 tonnes in year 10.  By year 15, their tariff-free access will have reached 230,000 tonnes, significantly surpassing recent year’s imports from Ireland into GB (just over 200,0000 tonnes).

That said, it must be acknowledged that both Australia and NZ are heavily focused on the Asia-Pacific market in recent years and imports of NZ lamb have been nowhere near their TRQ allowances of late.  Things could of course change in the future, particularly given the geopolitical tensions between Australia and China.  The UK will be seen by Antipodean suppliers as a high value and dependable market.  British agriculture needs to prepare for this increased competitive pressure which is likely to become more pronounced as future trade deals (e.g. an updated FTA with Canada) are agreed.  More information on the UK-NZ FTA is available via: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-new-zealand-free-trade-agreement-negotiations-agreement-in-principle/uk-new-zealand-fta-negotiations-agreement-in-principle

Covid Crisis and the Meat Sector

The past month has been one of the most tumultuous for generations as the meat sector as it has grappled with the lockdown brought about by the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic (Covid crisis).   Retailers and their partners have struggled under the strain of consumer panic buying whilst continuing operations whilst implementing social distancing.  Vast swathes of the food services and catering trade (aside from limited delivery and click-and-collect operations) have also presented significant challenges throughout supply-chains, particularly in beef and lamb but also in pigmeat.

Market Impacts

The beef sector has experienced price declines recently, primarily due to the loss of the food services trade.  In the UK, about one-third of beef product sales in monetary terms are to the food service sector.  Such sales consist of the highest value products (e.g. fillet steaks).  With the implosion of demand, this has a much more pronounced impact on carcase value, which some have estimated to have declined by around £200 per head (or 15-20%) at the processing level.  Increases in retail sales which have taken place are primarily for mince and burgers, which are of lower value, thus only partially compensating for steak sales losses.  At the farm level, price declines have remained relatively small with GB steer prices on 18th April (324 ppkg) approximately 4% lower than prices on 21st March (336 ppkg).  If the Covid Crisis continues for a sustained period, further farmgate declines are likely. 

The lamb trade has also experienced issues, although the Easter holiday and the recent commencement of Ramadan have helped prices to recover recently.  That said, major concerns remain due to the closure of the food services sector in continental Europe, most notably France.  As more UK lamb comes onto the market later in the year, any oversupply at that point will have a much more pronounced effect on prices.  If restaurants do open, they are unlikely to be operating at capacity, due to social distancing measures.  As most lamb is eaten outside of the home, this will present difficulties.

Similar trends have taken place in the pig meat sector with convenience products (e.g. bacon and sausages) seeing sales increase significantly but demand for roasting cuts has decreased markedly.  There are additional complexities at play more globally in pig meat.  Processing capacity in the US has been hit by coronavirus cases amongst workers in meat plants, meaning that production lines have shut down.  Whilst Europe has not witnessed processing disruption on the scale of the US, food services demand has lowered, meaning price declines have resulted.

Much of what will happen in the pig meat sector will be governed by the recovery in the Chinese market which has been hit by both the Covid crisis and African Swine Fever (ASF).  China has started to re-open again after a lockdown in some regions, and some analysts have predicted that Chinese demand will be back to 90% of normal levels by the end of the year.  On the supply-side, it has had to deal with ASF which has almost halved its breeding sow heard, and is only in the early stages of recovery.  Short-term, the deficit of pork in China should help European prices recover from Covid.  It could also provide some support in other protein categories but will not compensate for the losses in carcase value seen in beef, nor the potential oversupply in lamb as the UK production season progresses.

Support Schemes

In reaction to the Covid crisis, various forms of support have been instigated across Europe.  Some mechanisms have been aimed at the wider economy, whilst more recently, specific measures to support the farming sector have been announced by the EU-27.

Looking at the economy generally, whilst the UK has opted for a furlough system (subsidising 80% of wages up to £2,500 per month), this scheme is of limited use to the food sector as it necessitates workers being off work for that period.  This has created difficulties for processors who have to continue operations whilst also coping with price declines.  The wage subsidy systems in place elsewhere in countries such as the Netherlands, Ireland and New Zealand, arguably offers more support to sectors such as agri-food where turnover declines are projected, but production must continue.  In the Netherlands for example, if a 25% decrease in turnover is projected, the State will subsidise approximately 22.5% of wages for a 12-week period.

The EU-27 has also recently announced a range of measures to support agricultural commodities, including the re-opening of Private Storage Aid (PSA) for several commodities including beef (25,000 tonnes) and lamb (36,000 tonnes).  Pig meat will not be supported by this scheme.  PSA will allow the temporary withdrawal of products from the market for a minimum of 2 to 3 months, and a maximum period of 5 to 6 months.  It has been initiated to reduce supply and rebalance the market.  There are shortcomings though.  In beef, storing product means freezing it, thus value deterioration versus fresh.  Also, when the storage period ends, that product will need to be released onto the market thus increasing supply and lowering prices at that point.  The EU plans to formally agree the scheme by the end of April.  Previously, the EU also announced plans to offer increased flexibility to CAP and Rural Development funding, including larger BPS advances to farmers.

In the UK, however, there has not been any announcement of support specifically directed towards the agri-food sector.  Whilst many of the more generic support measures (e.g. Coronavirus Business Loan Interruption Scheme (CBILS)) will offer some assistance, more support is arguably required. Especially, given the extent of the price declines and impact on turnover.  Otherwise, many businesses will come under severe pressure in the weeks ahead, with many likely to cease trading.  If this happens, it will take the sector much longer to recover.