In comparison with previous years, the negotiations relating to Brexit went relatively quiet over the Christmas period. With the Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, assuming the responsibilities of Chief Brexit negotiator, it is hoped that a breakthrough can be achieved on the remaining issues, particularly the Northern Ireland Protocol. There have been lengthy lorry queues on the approach to Dover this month – a reminder, if one was needed, that Brexit is not yet done and we’re into the era of ongoing Brexit.
NI Protocol
In mid-January, Liz Truss met her EU counterpart Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič at Chevening House (Kent) in what was described as a cordial atmosphere. Whilst the tone between both parties has improved, significant issues relating to the NI Protocol remain. Some of these such as the European Court of Justice (ECJ) oversight and the extent of the removal of regulatory checks on goods from GB destined for NI are well-known. The EU was surprised by the extent to which the Foreign Secretary pushed for the removal of the approval system for State Aid under the Protocol (i.e. Government subsidies to companies with operations in NI that trade with the EU). Whilst the EU are open to looking at ways of speeding up the notification and approval system for State Aid to NI-based companies, they are unlikely to agree to its removal.
Similarly, for regulatory checks, its (limited) proposals in October (see previous article) showed that the EU is willing to offer some flexibility on the extent of checks and it claimed that Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) checks on meat and dairy could be reduced by half whilst customs checks could be reduced by 80%. However, the EU will not countenance their removal as they are seen as vital to protecting the Single Market.
Both parties have agreed to intensify talks from late January with the ambition of concluding talks by the end of February to resolve the remaining issues. With the NI Assembly elections taking place in May, both sides would be keen to have the lingering issues resolved by then. Much will depend on the extent to which Liz Truss will be prepared to compromise to do a deal. Ultimately, both sides will need to show some more flexibility if there is to be an agreement.
Dover Queues
On 21st January, there were 17-mile tailbacks on approach to Dover. In normal circumstances, there is usually a rebuilding of trade volumes following the Christmas period and it would appear that this coupled with the impact of absences due to Covid and Brexit-related checks (which have been imposed on UK to EU trade since January 2021) have caused the delays. The situation has improved somewhat since, although there is concern that with the introduction of biometric checks for entry into the EU from September will lead to more substantial delays. Of course, significant delays at borders between countries is not uncommon. Similar issues arise at the US-Canada border, despite there being a free-trade agreement between both countries.
That said, the UK-EU situation could be improved significantly if the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) was enhanced further. From an agricultural perspective, a veterinary agreement between both parties would be helpful, even if it is more akin to a NZ-style agreement which only cuts the volume of checks at the border, but does not remove the need for health certificates. It is also evident that some form of agreement on mobility provisions is required to make work activities in the EU less onerous and to pre-empt issues caused by the introduction of biometric checks. Improvements to the rules of origin provisions of the TCA to help to make it easier for goods with inputs from multiple sources to qualify for tariff-free trade would also help.
Overall, recurring queues at Dover will be an ongoing feature of UK-EU trade. These can be mitigated to a large extent by a more pragmatic approach from both the UK and EU authorities but it may take some time before the political will is there to make such accommodations.