We have received some questions on what is happening for the 2020 BPS. The previous Government stated (repeatedly) that the Basic Payment Scheme would operate for 2020. There was talk of some simplification, but with Brexit delays, General Elections etc., the best assumption is that all the scheme rules will be the same as the 2019 year. A new Government could decide to do something different, but it would now be very difficult to change anything for 2020 – crops have been planted for next year with the ‘legitimate expectation’ of support being the same. Thus, it becomes a question of BPS amounts for 2020.
Assuming the UK agrees a deal with the EU and enters the Transition Period, we will still be paying into the EU Budget until the end of 2020 (the end of the current Multi-annual Financial Framework (MFF)). However, BPS years and EU Budget years are one year out of sync – i.e. the 2020 EU Budget pays for 2019 BPS. Therefore, it appears the EU Budget won’t be paying for the UK’s 2020 BPS – we will be doing it ourselves.
There was the Funding Guarantee until the ‘end of the current Parliament’. This was meant to be 2022, but with the Election, this guarantee becomes void. Theoretically, the next Chancellor could cut 2020 BPS funding (or increase it!). In practice, inertia, tight timescales, and implicit promises made, lead us to think it is pretty safe to assume 2020 funding will be broadly equivalent to 2019.
However, there is a large complication in that there will still be a need to convert Euro-denominated entitlements which producers hold, into Sterling for payment. To date there has been nothing reported as to how this is to be done. It seems to us that either of two approaches might be adopted;
- Defra/RPA carry on as now, just using the September average to convert € to £. This might be problematic for the Treasury, as they could end up funding more/less than in 2019 depending on the precise exchange rate next September.
- they just pay out the same in Sterling terms (both per Ha, and in aggregate budget terms) as in 2019. Effectively, the exchange rate is locked at 2019 values.
Of course, they could come up with something completely different – using the 5-year average exchange rate for example. There is a further relevance to all this, in that the 2020 year sets the start point for the phasing out of BPS – if you lower the starting point, you can pay a bit less for the next 7 years.
To summarise, for current budgeting purposes we would assume 2020 BPS payments at the same level as 2019 ones (perhaps reduced slightly to be conservative). In terms of taking out hedges on exchange rates etc., our view is, not enough is known yet to calculate if this is going to be worthwhile. As always, we will endeavour to keep readers up-to-date as and when further information is available.