Category: Policy & Business

The ‘first-ever’ Agriculture Bill for Wales has been laid before the Senedd.  Like the equivalent Bills in England and Scotland, it is largely about providing the Government with the power to set agricultural policy.  The details of actual schemes will be filled-in by secondary legislation.  The Bill sets out the framework for Sustainable Land Management (SLM) the overriding principle of Welsh future farm policy which includes the Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS) – the replacement for BPS and Glastir (see article https://abcbooks.co.uk/future-farm-support-in-wales/).

Part 1 sets out the four main objectives of the Sustainable Land Management (SLM):

• produce food and other goods in a sustainable manner
• mitigate and adapt to climate change
• maintain and enhance the resilience of ecosystems and the benefits they provide, and
• conserve and enhance the countryside and cultural resources and promote public access to and engagement with them, and to sustain the Welsh language and promote and facilitate its use

The Bill also provides for monitoring and reporting of progress towards achieving the objectives, including the setting of indicators and targets.  Ministers will be required to publish a statement of indicators and targets, and will need to report on progress towards these.

In addition to the new agricultural policy, the Bill provides protection for agricultural tenants, meaning a 1986 Act tenant has the power to challenge a tenancy term or consent in relation to Welsh financial support schemes, ensuring they are not unfairly restricted from accessing financial assistance.   It also introduces amendments to the Forestry Act 1967 to give Natural Resources Wales the power to add conditions to amend, suspend or revoke felling licenses to prevent felling that would contradict other environmental legislation.  And also amends the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 to prohibit the use of snares and glue traps.  One topic not included in the Bill is the National Minimum Standards for Agriculture – the replacement for cross-compliance.  Legislation to enact these was planned to be included and it is not clear why they have been dropped.  

The full Bill can be found via https://senedd.wales/media/51ncc5s0/pri-ld15330-e.pdf  and the accompanying Explanatory Notes & Regulatory Impact Assessment via https://senedd.wales/media/mbcn2e21/pri-ld15330-em-e.pdf

 

The Government has announced plans to boost domestic horticulture.  An additional £12.5m will be channeled through the Farming Innovation Programme (FIP) to fund projects in areas such as robotics and automation.  Projects will be able to bid for the funding from January with the competition being run through UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).  In addition, the Defra Secretary, Ranil Jayawardena, has pledged to appoint an ‘industry expert’ to look at the barriers and opportunities in Controlled Environment Horticulture (i.e. glasshouse production).  A set of recommendations and policy interventions that the Government can implement both immediately and longer-term are set to be produced.   For more details see – https://www.gov.uk/government/news/environment-secretary-commits-to-sustainable-horticulture-growth

Scottish farmers have been receiving their 2022 BPS payments.  We wrote previously (see https://abcbooks.co.uk/2022-bps-payments-scotland/) that Scottish farmers and crofters would be receiving their BPS around a month earlier than normal and, although not quite as early as expected, payments have made good progress.  As at 4th October payments totalling £328 million had been issued to 14,271 businesses (81.68%) – equating to 78.3% of the annual anticipated expenditure.  The table below sets out the rates for 2022 and also includes those for 2021 for comparison.  Advanced payments are expected to be ‘at least 95%’ of the anticipated payment due.

This year advanced payments are being made rather than loan payments following the Rural Support (Simplification and Improvement) (Scotland) Regulations 2022 coming into force on 18th September.  Recipients won’t really see any difference, but loan payments carry a higher risk as they are made on the basis of unverified applications.  Rural Payments has also said loans are processed manually and therefore use up a significant amount of resource to operate.  As advance payments are made on fully verified applications the risk of incorrect payment is minimal. Also, payments are delivered through a fully automated function with no additional resource required to deliver them.

 

After the chaos unleased in financial markets by the ‘mini-budget’ at the end of September, the Government has promised a full Budget on the 23rd November.  This will set out in more detail how it plans to start reducing public borrowing following the massive tax cuts announced.  There will also be a full analysis of the economic situation by the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) which was lacking from the mini-budget.  More information should be provided on the supply-side measures such as deregulation and Planning reform that are part of the drive to improve economic growth.

Following the reports of Defra reviewing ELM and the potential re-introduction of area payments, which we reported on the last Bulletin, the Department has released a statement.  This confirms the new Government’s commitment to the environment.  It also provides (slightly lukewarm) support for ELM.  The statement sets out that ‘We’re not scrapping the schemes [ELM]‘, but goes on to say ‘it is only right that we look at how best to deliver the schemes to see where and how improvements can be made‘.  The full statement (in the form of a blog post) can be found at – https://deframedia.blog.gov.uk/2022/09/26/government-reiterates-commitment-to-environmental-protections/

With the Conservative leadership race taking centre-stage over the summer, Northern Ireland (NI) Protocol issues were put on the back-burner.  This hiatus was extended due to the death of Her Majesty.  Recent events appear to have resulted in reflection both in London and in Brussels as the new Prime Minister held introductory discussions with European leaders.  This change of tone suggests a window of opportunity to achieve a negotiated outcome to the NI Protocol wranglings, which have bedevilled UK-EU relations since the onset of Brexit.

There have also been notable changes on the ground over recent weeks which have helped to create a cautious sense of optimism;

• The UK authorities have developed a bespoke data system delivering near real-time visibility of goods’ movements between GB and NI.  This system pulls together data from five separate sources with a 15-minute delay.  Therefore, soon after a ship departs GB, regulatory authorities know what the ship contains.  They can then carry out risk assessments and identify any shipments that they wish to inspect.
•  The availability of real-time data was a key demand from the EU negotiators to allow greater flexibility on the implementation of the NI Protocol.  This, in addition to the EU Commission’s October 2021 suggestions, gives greater scope for compromise with its chief negotiator Maroš Šefčovič suggesting the physical inspections could be limited to ‘a couple of lorries a day‘.

Whilst recent developments have improved the mood music, significant hurdles remain.  Not least, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill which is currently passing through Westminster is still on the table and its activation could scupper progress.  There is also the end of October deadline by when an NI Executive needs to have been formed, otherwise there will be another Assembly election, possibly by year-end.

On 6th October, there is an inaugural meeting, in Prague, of the European Political Community – an entity devised by French President Emmanuel Macron to bring together leaders from across the European continent, including both EU member states and non-EU countries.  Liz Truss is exploring the possibility of attending.  Several experts see this as a key opportunity to make political progress on the NI Protocol as some believe that negotiations thus far have been heavily focused on technicalities due to the EU Commission’s input.  If Liz Truss attends and political progress is achieved at the Prague meeting, this could then pave the way at the next European Council meeting on 20-21 October to give greater flexibility in the negotiating mandate of Maroš Šefčovič to reach a workable solution.

Whilst there are remaining issues around the role of the European Court of Justice, VAT and competition rules, the central stumbling block remains agri-food trade and its associated Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) rules.  The resolution of this issue will likely require some form of SPS agreement between the UK and the EU.  Many have advocated a Swiss-style SPS agreement in the past, whereby the EU would permit frictionless access in return for the UK dynamically aligning with EU regulation.  The prospects for this sort of agreement are now remote, due to the Retained EU Law Bill announced by the UK Government which will end the special status of EU law in the UK statute book.  This Bill includes a sunset clause by when all remaining retained EU Law will either be repealed, or assimilated into UK domestic law.  This will create scope for divergence in the future and would render a Swiss-style SPS agreement unworkable.

It remains to be seen what form an eventual SPS agreement to manage the Protocol issues will take.  The UK would prefer a New Zealand-style arrangement, with physical checks rates being as low as 1% on meat.  The EU does not favour this, given the UK’s size and proximity to the EU Single Market.  Amongst all of this, a bespoke UK(NI)-style arrangement will need to emerge if this issue is to be truly resolved.

Rumours are circulating that the new Government is reconsidering its commitment to ELMs and may even be thinking about retaining a BPS-like direct payment.  The first indication was a tweet by Ben Goldsmith that stated ‘Rumours that the government is considering resuscitating an old subsidy scheme in which landowners across the country will be paid £80 of your money per acre of land that they own, no matter how well they care for it.’   A single tweet might usually be safely ignored, but Ben is the brother of Zac Goldsmith who was a Minister in Defra until a couple of months ago.  In addition, as the story was picked up by various news outlets, Defra failed to make a firm denial – which it would presumably do if the story was baseless.  Various meetings between the Department’s Civil Servants and landowners have also been cancelled – adding credence to the story.  It may all be a storm-in-a-teacup of course, but it is something we will be keeping a close eye on over the next few weeks as the new administration beds-in at Defra. 

Both consumers and businesses will receive significant help with their energy bills this winter.  It is estimated that this will cost £60bn over the next 6 months.  It will be paid for by additional Government borrowing rather than any ‘windfall’ tax on energy companies.

Support for non-domestic users, which includes charities and the public sector as well as businesses, will be under the Energy Bill Relief Scheme.  This will apply from the 1st October until the 31st March 2022 and will cap prices for customers at 21.1ppkWh for electricity and 7.5ppkWh for gas.  It covers all those on variable and flexible tariffs as well as those that have signed new fixed contracts since 1st April 2022.  There is no requirement for businesses to do anything – the cap will be automatically applied.

The scheme will be reviewed after three months.  This will look at how effective it has been, but also which groups of customers remain vulnerable (by sector or geography) and may require further assistance beyond March next year.  There is no indication yet whether farming, any of its sectors, or parts of the wider food chain might be deemed ‘vulnerable’.  Those businesses not connected to either the gas or electricity grid – for example farms being heated by oil or LPG are promised ‘equivalent support’.  No details on this are yet available.  Further information on the scheme can be found at – https://www.gov.uk/guidance/energy-bill-relief-scheme-help-for-businesses-and-other-non-domestic-customers .

In terms of domestic customers, these are covered under the Households Energy Price Guarantee.  Prices will be capped for two years from 1st October at 34.0ppkWh for electricity and 10.3ppkWh for gas.  The £400 already promised under the Energy Bills Support Scheme will be paid in addition to this.  Those that do not heat their homes with either gas or electric will be given £100.  Given the huge rise in the cost of heating fuel, this seems a quite small amount and appears to penalise those not on the gas grid – i.e. farms and others living in the countryside.

For many farms, the cost of power has quickly gone from being an ‘incidental’ expense to one of the major business costs.  For high users such as poultry and protected crops the situation is even more extreme.  This support will be welcomed as providing some respite in the short-term.  What happens after March is now the big question.  The support for business is even more important in farming as many farmhouses are connected to a single ‘farm’ electricity supply.    

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, set out a clear statement of intent with a tax-cutting ‘mini-budget’ on the 23rd September.  In the new Government’s first ‘fiscal event’, there were a series of measures designed to boost economic growth, with a target of 2.5% in the medium term.

In summary, the measures include;

• The 1.25% increase in National Insurance (to pay for health and social care) that was introduced in April this year is to be revoked as from 6th November.  The associated rise in dividend taxation of 1.25% will not be reversed until April 2023 – it seemingly being too complex to change this mid-year
• The Basic Rate of Income Tax will be reduced to 19% from April 2023.  This is a year earlier than originally planned.
• The top, 45%, rate of Income Tax for those earning over £150,000 is to be scrapped from April next year (this does not apply to Scotland which sets its own Income Tax rates)
• The proposed increase in Corporation Tax from 19% to 25% next year has been cancelled
• The Annual Investment Allowance on Plant and Machinery will permanently remain at £1m (rather than defaulting back to £200,000 in April next year)
• Stamp Duty (SDLT) in England and Northern Ireland is to be cut.  The nil-rate band has been increased from £125,000 to £250,000.  For first-time buyers no SDLT will be paid up to £425,000 (previously £300,000) as long as the property is under £625,000 (previously £500,000)
• Planned increases in duty rates on beer, cider, wine and spirits are scrapped and an overhaul of the regime of alcohol taxes will take place
• The Office of Tax Simplification is to be wound-up, with the Chancellor stating that all Civil Servants need to be focused on simplifying the tax system.

A further Budget is planned for later in the autumn.  As well as the taxation measures, a series of announcements are planned over the coming weeks looking at further reforms to the economy to boost growth.  These include;

• Changes to the Planning regime – particularly to speed up the delivery of infrastructure projects.  This may see changes in the requirements on consultation, environmental assessments and habitat protection.   Whether a more fundamental reform of the Planning Regime, to address house building, as proposed and then dropped by the last Government, will be enacted remains to be seen
• Announcements on business regulation and child-care are also promised
• Legislation will be bought forward to remove all retained EU law by the end of 2023
• Investment Zones are to be set up around the country with easier Planning rules and tax incentives
• There was a specific reference to agricultural productivity.  The Growth Plan states that ‘the Government will rapidly review frameworks for regulation, innovation and investment that impact farmers and land owners‘.  Plans will be set out later this autumn.

It might be argued that the Government has correctly diagnosed the problem with the UK economy – low productivity and growth that dates back a number of years.  Therefore, not enough wealth is generated to pay for the public services that the population demands.  Whether the policies outlined are the correct cure for this is perhaps more debatable.  Cumulatively, the tax cuts  outlined are the largest since the ‘Barber Boom’ Budget of 1972 (and that didn’t end well, economically).  With no cuts in public spending outlined, the tax cuts will be funded by increased Government borrowing.  The markets have already reacted with the Pound weakening considerably and the cost of borrowing through Government Gilts rising.  

The idea is that increased growth in the future will allow the debts to be paid off.  However, after massive spending on Covid measures, plus recent support for energy consumers (see separate article) there is a sense that future generations are being saddled with large debts.  It is also unclear whether tax cuts will necessarily drive (enough) growth.  Many of the measures benefit the rich more than the poor, so will rely on ‘trickle down’ effects.

Finally, there is the tension between fiscal and monetary policy.  These tax cuts amount to a significant loosening of fiscal policy – effectively trying to get the economy to surge ahead.  At the same time the Bank of England is tightening monetary policy – damping-down the economy to control inflation.  On the 22nd September the Bank of England increased Base Rates by a further 0.5% to 2.25% – the highest level since 2008.  Further rises are expected, partly to counter the effects of the tax cuts announced.  Markets expect Base Rates to peak at 4.5-5.0% in mid-2023.

The new Government’s policy certainly seems a gamble given the present economic circumstances.  Time will tell whether it is inspired or insane.  

The NFUS is reporting that no 2022 BPS payments have yet been made in Scotland.  This is despite a Press Release in June from the Scottish Government stating that they would commence from 19th September.  There has been no announcement from the Government into the cause of the delay.