On 4th April, the Commons Select Committee for Exiting the European Union (Brexit Committee) published its report on the future UK-EU relationship. It contains 15 criteria (key tests) by which it will judge any future deal agreed between the UK and EU negotiators. The key tests which are of relevance to agriculture include;
- Maintaining an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland: with no physical infrastructure or any related checks and controls as agreed in the Phase 1 Withdrawal Agreement. Data from the Irish Central Statistics Office (CSO) for 2017 reveal that agri-food trade accounted for 45% of all cross-border goods trade on the island of Ireland in 2017, and is therefore the primary concern when it comes to solving the border issue.
- No tariffs on goods trade between the UK and the EU 27: this could potentially be achieved via a comprehensive free-trade agreement (FTA) between the UK and the EU, but will need to be more in-depth than the EU-Canada (CETA) FTA agreed last year. However, this will not address non-tariff barrier issues.
- No additional border or rules of origin checks on goods trade: these would delay the delivery of perishable or time-sensitive deliveries or impede the operation of cross-border supply chains. At present, the UK’s stated desire of being outside the Single Market and the Customs Union makes it virtually impossible to meet this test and will require a blurring of the UK’s so-called red lines. As a minimum, the UK would need to participate in a Customs Union with the EU (which includes agricultural goods). It would also require a robust regulatory equivalence agreement; the likes of which the EU has never agreed with any other third country, to avoid non-tariff barriers such as border or rules of origin checks.
- No additional costs to businesses that trade in goods or services: most businesses are resigned to the fact that there will be some increase in administration and other costs even with a very soft Brexit. This test therefore appears very difficult to meet.
- Any new UK-EU immigration arrangements must not impede the movement of workers: covers those providing services across borders and the recognition of their qualifications and their right to practise. Given the labour difficulties in some agricultural sectors, continued access to labour from the EU will be vital. This is particularly important in areas such as veterinary services in abattoirs but will also be important for drivers of HGVs transiting to and from the EU.
- UK to maintain convergence with EU regulations necessary to maximise access to European markets: the report noted that Norway has to accept all EEA relevant EU legislation (estimated to account for 30% of all EU legislation that currently applies to the UK). A similar level of compliance would be needed if the UK is to meet this test and, potentially, more considering that agriculture does not come under the current EEA arrangements.
The report also stated that should the negotiations on a deep and special partnership between the UK and the EU not prove successful, then EFTA/EEA membership should remain an alternative and would have the advantage of continuity of access for UK services. However, as mentioned previously, it must be emphasised that such an EFTA/EEA arrangement would not automatically cover agriculture and would, therefore, be insufficient to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland.
It must also be highlighted that the Brexit Committee is deeply divided over this report and those objecting to its conclusions include the high-profile Jacob Rees-Mogg who has claimed that the report seeks to “thwart Brexit by stealth”.
Finally, the report mentions the EU’s Association Agreements with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova which cover most of the Internal Market rules and also provide for selective participation in many of the EU’s agencies and programmes whilst not including free movement of people. However, it acknowledged that binding arbitration is provided for dispute resolution and referrals to the Court of Justice of the EU are limited to interpretations of EU law. The Committee also noted the recent EU Parliament’s support of the Association Agreement option. It appears that the Association Agreement option is gaining traction as it offers greater flexibility than other ‘off-the-shelf’ models frequently cited. Ultimately, the future UK-EU relationship will need to have its own distinct model, particularly considering the commitments of both parties with respect to the Irish border. It is now time for the UK and the EU negotiators to put some ‘meat on the bones’ of a future relationship deal. Only then can any future deal be fairly judged.
The report is accessible via: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmexeu/935/935.pdf