Tag: Environment

Ireland: GHG Emissions Reduction Target

After much debate, the coalition partners of the Irish Government finally agreed on a 25% reduction target for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Irish agriculture (i.e. in the Republic of Ireland) by 2030.  The target will have significant implications for Irish agriculture, with the suckler beef sector likely to come under intense pressure. 

This target forms part of Ireland’s commitment under its Climate Action Plan to reduce its emissions by 51% by the end of the decade and to reaching its legally binding target of being net-zero by 2050.  Previously, the Climate Action Plan, published in November 2021, had mentioned a reduction target range of 22-30% versus 2018 emissions, with a number to be finalised at a later juncture.  Farming organisations were seeking a maximum reduction target of 22% whilst environmental organisations  were seeking a 30% reduction. 

A 2021 KPMG study examined the impact of a 21% and a 30% reduction in GHG emissions on Irish agriculture.  It projected that a 6% cut to the beef herd and a 5% cut to the dairy herd would be required if the emissions reduction target was 21%.  A 30% GHG reduction would require a 22% cut in the beef herd and an 18% cut to the dairy herd.  The agreed 25% target would imply a fall in population numbers somewhere in the middle of these projections, a circa 13-14% decline in the beef herd and a 11-12% decline in the dairy herd.  There would also be a hit on the Irish rural economy in the region of €2.5 billion.

As the chart below shows, suckler cows numbers have already fallen sharply in Ireland, with an estimated 15% decrease between 2010 and 2020.  Over the same period, dairy cow numbers rose by 45%. This increase was chiefly due to the shackles of milk quotas being removed in 2015. The proposed target could undo much of the expansion in dairying and poses major questions for the future viability of significant swathes of suckler farming, given its poor profitability. 

Ireland Cow Population Estimates 2010 to 2021 (Million Head)

Sources: Irish Central Statistics Office (CSO) and Teagasc

From a UK farming perspective, declines of this magnitude would imply a potentially significant decrease in the importation of beef and dairy products from Ireland.  This could present some opportunities for UK farmers.  However, British farmers are also likely to be subject to stringent emissions targets as the decade progresses.  The Irish Government is at pains to point out that it believes that the 25% reduction across agriculture is attainable without necessitating declines in its suckler beef herd.  That remains to be seen.

Overall, these targets illustrate the difficulties that the agricultural industry as a whole will face in reducing its global emissions and going towards net-zero.  Of course, the Irish reduction targets above are predicated on the IPCC’s preferred ‘GWP-100’ method of measuring GHG emissions.  Some believe that this over-estimates the warming potential of methane and, therefore, penalises agriculture.  The alternative ‘GWP*’ method being put forward by some scientists at Oxford University is preferred by the agricultural industry as it treats methane as a short-lived, recyclable, greenhouse gas.  Whilst the GWP* method is being re-examined by the IPCC, there is no escaping the fact that all sectors are going to face difficult trade-offs as society tackles the climate change challenge. 

The unintended consequences of an individual country striving for net-zero also need close monitoring.  If the relatively GHG-efficient Irish beef production is replaced by less GHG-efficient beef from elsewhere, then the planet as a whole will be in a worse-off position.  There are similar issues with water; a generally abundant source in Ireland and the West of the British Isles.  It is important that produce which is certified as being more environmentally sustainable than the standard achieves a premium price that appropriately rewards the immense efforts that will be involved. 

Climate Change and Land – IPCC Report

On 8th August, the UN-affiliated Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its report on how land usage contributes to, and is affected by, climate change. Its findings suggest that climate change is intensified by emissions from cattle and intensive farming practices, thus placing further scrutiny on meat and dairy products.

The study considers issues such as greenhouse gas fluxes related to land; interactions between climate change and desertification, land degradation and food security; land-related impacts and risks; response options that could help to adapt to climate change as well as response options that reduce land-related emissions or enhance carbon uptake by land systems.

Whilst the report stopped short of explicitly calling on people to become vegetarian or vegan, it suggests that by reducing meat and dairy consumption and switching to plant-based alternatives, people could be fed using less land, particularly in Western economies. It suggests that if farmland was diverted away from meat production and used for growing more forestry and biomass, it could help to create more carbon sinks to help to improve and regenerate soils. As with previous studies, emissions associated with methane were found to be most problematic as they are substantially more potent than CO2.  That said, it must be acknowledged that unlike carbon dioxide, methane dissipates in the atmosphere after approximately 12 years, whereas CO2 can remain in the atmosphere almost infinitely, if it is not sequestered or otherwise extracted. That should not be taken as an excuse for inaction, because undoubtedly emissions pose a significant challenge for the livestock industry and it needs to be addressed head on.

Food waste is also highlighted as a major issue with approximately one-third of food that is produced being lost or wasted, and from field to fork, it accounts for 8-10% of total global emissions. This is substantial given that the IPCC estimates that emissions from land use encompassing forestry and agriculture equates to 23% of human greenhouse gas emissions. In July, WRAP reported that in the UK, approximately 1.6 million tonnes of food from primary production is wasted annually, equating to just over 3% of food harvested. Further estimates from the WRAP report are provided in the table below and the results highlight that there is significant scope for improvement in managing waste at the farm-level.

Top-20 Food Waste Sectors from Primary Production by Volume (2017) (‘000 tonnes)

Source: WRAP (2019)

As the report was at a global level, it also covered numerous issues associated with combating soil erosion through greater use of sustainable management practices (e.g. more tree-planting, better management of peat resources so to help to sequester more carbon dioxide etc.). Issues around food security are also highlighted with respect to availability (yield and production), access (prices and ability to obtain food), utilisation (nutrition and cooking), and stability (disruptions to availability).

Overall, the report highlights the scale of the challenge that we face in addressing climate change. As with reports of this nature, global averages tend to hide a great deal of nuance. For instance, and particularly in large swathes of the British and Irish Isles, there are limited alternatives to livestock production whilst the proliferation of forestry can lead to problems with rural isolation if it is not managed properly. Indeed, the climate on these islands is one of the most conducive to grass-fed livestock production and improving its productivity (e.g. grass utilisation efficiency, better genetics) can also contribute to better environmental outcomes. Achieving net zero emissions requires a balanced approach, and undoubtedly everyone has a role to play. 

A summary version of the report is available via;

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2019/08/4.-SPM_Approved_Microsite_FINAL.pdf

Additional information can also be obtained on; https://www.ipcc.ch/2019/08/08/land-is-a-critical-resource_srccl/

Further information on the WRAP report cited above is available at;

http://www.wrap.org.uk/sites/files/wrap/Food_waste_in_primary_production_in_the_UK_0.pdf

Other News – November 2017

  • The NFU of England and Wales will be looking for a new leader come February.  The current President, Meurig Raymond, has indicated that he will not seek re-election when his current two-year term ends next year.  He has stated that, with Brexit negotiations likely to run on for some years, and his desire not to continue in office beyond 2020, he is stepping down now to allow someone else to take up the post who can provide continuity.  Mr Raymond was voted as the successor to Peter Kendal as President in 2014, and was re-elected in 2016.
  • One of the country’s biggest farming operations is to cease day-to-day farming.  Farmcare, which used to be Co-op Farms before it was sold to the Welcome Trust in 2014, will no longer be involved in ‘operational farming’.  The company occupies around 13,000 hectares (32,000 acres) at 11 locations across Britain from Aberdeen to Kent.  From September 2018, the farming of the land will be undertaken through joint-venture arrangements.  The Farmcare fruit business will be sold-off as a going concern.
  • Scotland’s Tenant Farming Commissioner is inviting Landlords and Tenants to take part in a survey to find out their views and experiences of the conduct of agents acting on their behalf on agricultural matters.  The Tenant Farming Commissioner must complete the review and make recommendations to Ministers by March 2018 as part of his commitments under the Land Reform (Scotland) Act 2016.  Research Resource, a social and economic research agency based in Glasgow has been commissioned by the Scottish Land Commission to undertake telephone interviews.
  • The latest figures on wild bird populations show no overall increase in numbers.  In particular, the farmland bird index is disappointingly flat – despite all the efforts of the industry in terms of environmental management over the last few years.  The bird numbers are important as the Government tends to use them as a ‘proxy’ for the health of the environment and biodiversity more generally.  Farmland bird numbers have declined by over half since the early 1970s.  Even over the last five years, the survey has recorded a 9% reduction.  The figures can be found at – https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/wild-bird-populations-in-the-uk

New Environmental Body

Michael Gove, Environmental Secretary, has announced plans to consult on a new independent body for environmental standards.  The new body will advise Government as well as having the powers to challenge and hold the Government to account after we leave the European Union.  Currently environmental decisions in the UK are overseen by the European Commission.  These are based on a number of ‘Environmental Principles’ such as polluter pays and sustainable development.  The consultation will also look into the content of a new policy statement to ensure these environmental principles underpin future policy making in the UK.  The consultation on the ‘scope and powers’ of the independent body will be launched early next year.