Farm profits show a mixed picture for the year just ending. This is the finding of the first forecasts from Defra’s Farm Business Income (FBI) for the year 2022/2023 (March to February). These include the 2022 harvest and the 2022 Basic Payment. The forecasts are derived from information available in early February 2023. The actual Farm Business Survey results for this period will be published in November 2023. Although titled ‘income’ what the series shows is average profit at the farm level for a typical farm in each sector. A summary of the results is included in the table below.
Only Cereal and Dairy farms are forecast to make a year-on-year increase in profits. On Cereal farms this is expected to increase by 6% (in real terms) to average £134,000. An increase in output due to higher crop prices and better yields is expected to more than offset the increase in input costs. The Basic Payment is predicted to fall by about a quarter on the year to average £29,000; roughly 22% of the total income on cereal farms.
The profit on an average Dairy farm is forecast a substantial 69% rise for the 2022/23 year (in real terms). This is almost entirely driven by an increase in milk price. The Defra average farmgate milk price rose from 37.45p per litre in March to 51.51p per litre in December 2022 (see Key Farm Facts). However, for the future, we are now seeing some significant falls in milk price.

For Grazing Livestock farms the picture is less rosy. Profits on both Lowland and LFA Grazing Livestock farms are forecast to decline for the year just ending. Lowland profits are forecast to halve compared with year earlier levels. Inputs are expected to rise by 15%, primarily due to an increase in costs for fertiliser, feed and machinery. In addition, output is forecast to decline by 1%. Whilst finished cattle prices have risen, the output from store cattle and sheep is estimated to have fallen. The Basic Payment reduces by 21% on this type of farm, but significantly it still equates to over 80% of the total Farm Business Income. Many Grazing Livestock farms remain reliant on the Basic Payment. Profits on LFA Grazing Livestock farms are forecast to decline by 65% in real terms. The sheep enterprise tends to make up the biggest output on LFA farms and, as we have been reporting in other articles, prices have been lacklustre this year. Both finished and store lamb prices are down, which will be reflected in lower closing values for trading stock, compared with opening.
Profit from General Cropping farms is forecast to be 18% lower on the year (in real terms), although still high compared to the recent past; in 2021/22 average profit more than doubled. The recent declines are as a result of higher input costs, primarily fertiliser and machinery related costs (rental, repairs, depreciation, fuel and oil). Output is expected to rise, but not by enough to offset the rise in input costs. Higher output from cereals and OSR is partially offset by a decline from potatoes, peas and beans. A reduction in the planted area of potatoes and the drought is expected to take its toll on yields. The weather is also forecast to impact on sugar beet yields for the 2022/23 year.
No income forecasts have been produced for specialist Pig, Poultry or Horticulture farms. There is only a relatively small sample of these farms in the Farm Business Survey and together with market uncertainties and extreme volatility, Defra has said it has not be possible to produce robust forecasts. The full statistical release can be found at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/farm-business-income/farm-business-income-in-england-202223-forecast