The latest Farm Business Income (FBI) figures released by DEFRA for England show an improvement for most sectors following significant losses for the previous year. The data is for the 2016/17 year which runs until February/March 2017 so includes the 2016 harvest. At present the figures are initial estimates and will be updated in October, but the overall trends are clear.
FBI can be thought of as average profit for farms in a particular sector. The fall in the value of the Pound has been the main driver for the increase in FBI. Not only did it make domestic commodities more competitive, leading to price rises for most, it also meant the 2016 Basic Payment was in the region of 19% better than in 2015 for all sectors. Even so, as the chart below illustrates, not all sectors saw an increase. Once again dairy incomes have seen another big drop (-49%), due to a combination of lower milk prices and a fall in production. Costs are forecast to be fairly similar for the sector. Higher feed prices in the second half of the year are expected to be offset by lower volumes. A decrease in fertiliser cost is expected to be offset by an increase in fuel, labour and other general farm inputs.
The other sector to record a fall in profits is specialist poultry (-31%). This is driven by higher input costs, mainly feed, which accounts for over 50% of input costs on poultry farms and a reduction in the egg price. Avian Flu is not expected to have a significant impact on 2016/17 incomes.
Cereals farms see a small increase to £38,000 (7%), as higher prices and and increase in the Basic Payment offset reduced yields. General cropping farms are forecast to increase by 22% to £77,500. It was the only sector to see a rise last year, except for LFA grazing livestock and once again it is largely driven by increased potato prices, which together with an increase in cereals values is expected to more than offset the reduction in sugar beet and OSR production.
After a big fall in FBI in 2015/16 specialist pig farms see the largest rise, by 160% to £57,000 due to higher pig prices and increased output, although feed prices have also risen over the year. Both grazing livestock categories have seen an increase, although from pretty low bases. Lowland grazing livestock incomes are expected to increase by 56% to £19,000 and LFA by 28% to £24,500 due to better livestock prices.
The chart below splits returns into four ‘profit centres’ for the previous four years. This data is not yet available for 2015/16.
