Category: Policy & Business

There were no (more) nasty surprises for farming in the Spring Statement on the 26th March.  The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, had to announce significant spending changes to stay within her own fiscal rules as lacklustre economic growth and higher debt interest payments reduced her headroom.  Ms Reeves has promised only one ‘fiscal event’ per year; the Autumn Budget.  Whilst not quite turning into a mini-Budget, the Spring Statement contained rather more than just an update of forecasts.  On those forecasts, the Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) has halved its estimate of economic growth for 2025 from 2% to 1% (although growth in subsequent years is seen as being slightly higher than forecast at the time of the Autumn Budget).  The OBR’s forecast for inflation (CPI) is for it to peak at 3.8% in July 2025.  The average inflation for 2025 is estimated to be 3.2%.  There were no new tax increases announced.  The spending changes were the previously-announced shift from Foreign Aid to Defence spending (because of classification changes, this results in a saving in the short-term).  The greatest effect was a cut in the welfare budget however.  Importantly, there was no cut in Defra’s budget for 2025/26 which had been announced in the autumn.  Therefore the figures set out in our article last month still stand.  Thoughts will now turn to the Comprehensive Spending Review announcement in the summer. 

Since returning to office in January 2025, President Donald Trump has reignited his signature ‘America First’ trade agenda.  This has escalated tensions with its major trading partners, including China, Canada and Mexico with concerns that the European Union will be next.  There are also suggestions that the UK will get caught up in these disputes.

On 4th March, the US imposed a series of tariffs on imports from China.  Across goods generally, the US imports more from China than it exports in the opposite direction.  However, within agriculture, the opposite is the case and exports of soybeans in particular to China are substantial.  Meat exports from the US to China, including pork, poultry and beef are also sizeable.  These sectors will now be hit with Chinese tariffs, ranging from 10-15%.  It is anticipated that China will source more produce from elsewhere, particularly Latin America.  This is what happened when the previous Trump administration imposed tariffs on China.

The US has also announced plans to put 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico; although these have been suspended until 2nd April if the goods are covered under the USMCA trade deal.  Most agricultural goods are covered with the exception of dairy exports from Canada to the US.  On 4th March, Canada announced that it was retaliating by imposing 25% tariffs on CA$30 billion worth of imports from the US, and that an additional CA$150 billion of imports from the US would also face similar tariffs by end March.  Both the US and Canada have since been in discussions to resolve the trade disputes, but businesses remain cautious given the recent volatility in US trade policy.

In addition, the Trump administration has stated that the EU is on its hitlist for tariffs and on 4th March President Trump stated that ‘reciprocal’ tariffs would be imposed on 2nd April on countries that he believes are treating the US unfairly.  Tariffs on steel imports into the US have already been imposed and the EU is preparing a list of products that it plans to hit the US with tariffs from early April.  This will include products such as bourbon but other agricultural products such as beef, poultry meat, dairy products, sugar and vegetables will also be targeted.

The US stance on the UK appears to be softer and the President has even floated the idea of a trade deal with the UK.  That said, the US administration also implied last month that reviewing the one-month suspension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico was not a priority, but then changed its stance completely.  This illustrates the unpredictability of US trade policy and similar could happen with the UK.  In 2023 alone, the UK exported nearly £980m worth of whisky to the US and during the 2022-24 period exported on average £2.7 billion worth of agri-food goods to the US.  In addition to whisky, the UK has also carved out lucrative niches for products such as specialty cheeses.  On its part, the US only exports about £1.8 billion worth of agri-food goods into the UK and as part of any trade deal, it would be keen to increase that figure by exporting more beef for instance.

Although the US has made overtures about a trade deal, the prospects of an agreement appear some way off.  The Labour Government is more focused on re-setting its relationship with the EU.  The Government will need to strike a delicate balance between any closening of the relationship with the EU whilst not attracting unwanted attention from the US in terms of tariff actions.  That said, a longer term trade deal with the US cannot be ruled out, especially if there were to be a change in Government at the next general election.

More generally, trade wars unsettle commodities and financial markets whilst also creating upheaval for supply-chains in addition to being inflationary.  With UK inflation rising again, and projected to reach 3.7% in late 2025 (significantly above the Bank of England’s 2% target) the effects of a global trade war adds to economic uncertainty.

The Planning and Infrastructure Bill had its first reading in Parliament on the 11th March.  This is one of the Government’s flagship pieces of legislation as it aims to deliver on the ‘growth’ agenda through changes in the planning system.  It also aims to boost the drive to net zero through supporting renewable infrastructure.  Farmers and landowners are very likely to feel the effects of this legislation

Most of the bill relates to England and Wales, although the energy elements will have GB-wide application.  It is large piece of legislation split into a number of components;

• Infrastructure:  streamling the Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects (NSIP) regime; improving the system for connecting projects to the electricity grid; amending the rules on Highways works
• Planning:  more local flexibility to set Planning fees; introduction of regional strategic plans for Planning
• Development and Nature:  introduction of a ‘Nature Restoration Levy’ – this would replace the requirement for site-by-site mitigation of environmental impacts through mechanisms such as Nutrient Neutrality.  Instead, the requirements would be aggregated up and delivered on a more strategic level through Environmental Delivery Plans.
• Development Corporations:  to build proposed New Towns and other large-scale developments.
• Compulsory Purchase:  changes to the rules to speed up development.  One of the key changes here is to remove ‘hope value’ from the compensation paid if land is being compulsorily purchased for public good uses such affordable housing, healthcare or education.

The full Bill can be found at https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10216/.   There may be significant amendments to the legislation as it passes through Parliament.

The Government has started the process to produce a national Food Strategy.  It has set up a Food Strategy Advisory Board (FSAB).  This will be chaired by Daniel Zeichner, Minister for Food Security and Rural Affairs, and will include a selection of members from the food supply industry (including a farmer member – Sam Godfrey).

The cross-Government Food Strategy will ‘restore pride in British food’ by ensuring a food system that ‘backs British food, grows the economy, feeds the nation, nourishes individuals, and protects the planet, now and in the future’.  The food strategy will work to improve the food system to:

• provide more easily accessible and affordable healthy food
• maintain our food security by building resilience
• reduce the impact of farming and food production on nature, biodiversity and climate
• ensure growth is at the heart of the Food Strategy

The FSAB will meet monthly.  It is also planned to have wider industry consultation on the Food Strategy in due course.  The timetable for the publication of the final Strategy is unclear at present.  More details of the FSAB and its members is available at – https://www.gov.uk/government/news/leading-food-experts-join-government-food-strategy-to-restore-pride-in-british-food 

The National Estate for Nature Group has held its inaugural meeting.  The Group, which is made up of major landowners who together own 10% of England’s land, is tasked with ‘accelerating the recovery of the natural world’.  The meeting was chaired by Steve Reed who has called on the Group for action to ‘collectively protect and restore nature on their estates across England’.  He has also asked the Group to ‘report back on potential approaches for sustainable land use, land management, change or investment’.  The group is made up of 22 members, including The Crown Estate and Duchy of Cornwall, third-sector organisations such as the National Trust, RSPB, and the Wildlife Trusts, plus representatives from the Government Estate such as MOD and Natural England.

Dr David Llewellyn has been appointed as the independent monitoring and reporting commissioner to monitor the progress of delivering the recommendations of the Farm Assurance Review.  Dr Llewellyn led the independent commission that produced the report back in January see our article https://abcbooks.co.uk/farm-assurance-review/‎.  Dr Llewellyn will shortly be inviting stakeholders identified in the report to submit their feedback on relevant recommendations and to set out their proposed actions for delivery.

Defra has announced up to £33 million will be directed to the Rural England Prosperity Fund (REPF) for the 2025/26 year.  This money is available to improve local infrastructure and essential services that benefit rural communities and help businesses in rural areas.  It is equivalent to the Rural Development funds that used to be paid as part of the CAP. 

Examples of the types of projects that will be eligible for funding from the REPF include:

• Creation of rural business hubs providing shared workspace and networking opportunities for rural businesses.
• Development of new products, facilities or building conversions to help rural businesses diversify outside of agriculture.
• Community gardens and greenspaces.
• The creation of new footpaths and development of local visitor trails.
• Kitchens in community hubs and improvements to premises used by local volunteering groups, such as youth charities or carers groups.

The funding is distributed through English Local Authorities.  This has meant a very ‘patchy’ outcome in terms of what is available in any particular area.  The allocation of funding will be based on existing methodology and the amounts will be confirmed in due course.  Each eligible Local Authority will advertise ‘calls for projects’ based on their local priorities.  Those with projects which fall under the above themes are advised to contact their Local Authority to see if funding is available.

Profits rose for all farm types in England in 2024/25, apart from Cereals Farms.  This is according to the forecasts of Farm Business Income (FBI) recently released by Defra.  These results come from Defra’s first estimates for FBI for the period March 2024 to February 2025.  These include the 2024 harvest and 2024 BPS.  They are preliminary estimates at present, with more detailed figures due to be published in November.  Although titled ‘income’, what the data shows is average net profit for a typical farm in each sector.  The chart below summarises the data for the past few years – all figures are in real terms at 2023/24 prices.

FBI on Cereal Farms is forecast to drop again this year, due to a combination of challenging weather conditions and lower output prices.  The output from crops, most notably wheat, is expected to record a substantial decline for the year and, although costs fall, the FBI is forecast to drop by nearly a third to £27,000.  For General Cropping farms, lower output from cereals is forecast to be partially offset by increases for other crops, such as sugar beet and potatoes. This, along with lower inputs costs, is expected to result in a 13% rise in FBI to £108,000.

A recovery in the farmgate milk price means FBI on Dairy Farms is forecast to increase by 140% (in real terms) on the year to £176,000.  For the Grazing Livestock sector, stronger farmgate prices, particularly for sheep and a reduction in feed costs is estimated to increase FBI for both LFA and Lowland Farms to £28,000.  However, for Lowland Farms the main driver is expected to be a substantial uplift in agri-environment income; this is forecast to more than double from the 2023/24 level to around £23,000 in 2024/25.  For Specialist Pig Farms, lower costs, particularly feed, are forecast to be one of the main drivers increasing FBI by around 11% (in real terms) to £155,000.

Defra has not made an estimate for FBI in the Poultry sector, so the figure shown on the chart is our forecast.

For the 25/26 year just starting, it currently looks like being another ‘up horn, down corn’ year.  Prices in the arable sector are lacklustre, although yields are not expected to be as bad as last year.  Lower grain prices should help the livestock sector due to reduced feed costs, together with strong farmgate prices.  However, it can be seen from the chart above, that the Grazing Livestock sector is starting from a very low base.  It has historically been reliant on the BPS and the fact that the main driver for a rise in FBI is due to a substantial increase in the agri-environment income shows how reliant this sector is now on the SFI and how difficult it will be for those who have not managed to get into the scheme . 

Details can be found at –https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/farm-business-income/forecasts-of-farm-business-income-by-farm-type-england-202425   Actual survey results for this period will be published in November 2025.

System Faults

Further to Defra’s shock, without notice, closure of the SFI 2024, there were many situations where applications had started but had not yet been submitted.  Defra has said for the majority of these it will not be possible to submit them.  The only exceptions to this are ‘a small group of farmers who were blocked from submitting their applications due to a ‘system fault’ or had requested ‘assisted digital’ support from the RPA to apply”.  It also applies to ‘ex-SFI Pilot farmers whose Pilot agreement has already ended, but they haven’t applied for the full SFI 2024 offer on land which was in their Pilot agreement’.

Defra has given a bit of clarification as to what it is viewing as a ‘system fault’ for the purposes of these exceptions, prior to the scheme closing at 6pm on 11th March;

• an application had been started and a system issue prevented the application from being submitted, and
• the applicant (or their agent) had informed RPA, either by calling the Helpline or by emailing Rural Payments of this issue.

Where this is the case, RPA has said it will be contacting applicants to let them know when it will be possible to submit their application.  It has also said that if an applicant thinks they fall under this ‘exception’ but their application has been rejected on the system then they can contact RPA either by the Helpline or via email and these will be looked into on a case-by-case basis.

Rotational Declarations

With the closure of the SFI, current agreement holders are advised to make sure they consider their Rotational Declaration carefully.  Land managers are reminded that under the scheme rules they are allowed to reduce their Rotational options by 50% in years two and three.   But, they are also allowed to increase the area.  With Defra previously ‘pushing’ for multiple agreements as a way for farmers to increase their area, some may not have fully considered their Rotational Declaration, thinking they could add land on another agreement.  They will be restricted to the Rotational options already being claimed for in their existing agreement but for some this may be a way of increasing land in the SFI.  Unless scheme rules suddenly change…………