Category: Dairy & Livestock

The AHDB has revised it’s GB milk production for the 2024/25 season down since its previous forecast in March.  The Levy body is now forecasting delivery figures to total 12.2 billion litres, 1% less than the previous milk year, in its latest forecast in June.  GB deliveries in the April and May totalled 2,205 million litres, 1.5% (33m litres) less than last year.  But the AHDB is expecting production to be slightly up on 2023 in July and August, when high temperatures in June impacted grass growth.  But after that, production is forecast to decline unless there is a significant movement in price.  According to BCMS the GB milking herd has remained stable at 1.64 million head in April.  The reduction in production is therefore down to lower yields.

Defra’s latest farmgate milk price for April 2024 was 37.21p per litre; this compares with 39.45p per litre in April 2023, but recent announcements surrounding milk prices have been positive (see below) and will provide a bit of stimulus to increase production.  However, for price rises to continue, the demand will need to be there.  China is one of the major drivers of the global dairy market, but according to the latest report from Rabobank, China’s dairy imports in 2024 are expected to decline by 8% year-on-year.

GB production is also likely to remain constrained.  Although input costs have eased over recent months they remain historically high.  In addition, forage quality is likely to have been affected by the cold spring and straw costs will be higher due to the lower arable area and more spring cropping this year.  All these increases in costs will make producers reluctant to push for production unless we experience a significant increase in farmgate prices.

Latest farmgate milk price announcements as from 1st July include;

• Barbers has announced a 1.03p per litre increase which takes its standard litre price to 41.28p per litre
• Producers supplying First Milk will receive a 0.8p per litre increase which will take their maufacturing standard litre to 40.3p per litre
• Wyke Farms are up by 0.7p per litre to 41.06p for their manufacturing litre and Belton Farm is increasing its standard litre by 1p to 39.3p per litre
• Meadow Foods has announced a 1.5p per litre which takes their price to 38.5p per litre.

Defra has expanded its support to tackle endemic diseases in livestock.  The previous Annual Health and Welfare review has been changed so that there are now two parts to the service;

• The Animal (slight change from Annual) Health and Welfare Review
• The Endemic Disease Follow-up

The table below includes the support payments for each species;

Currently the endemic disease follow-up is not available for dairy cattle.  This part of the service is expected to be available ‘soon’.  The eagle-eyed will also have noticed that the Pig Review payment has been reduced from £684 to £557.  This is because, following feedback from farmers and vets, the testing requirements for pigs has changed from blood testing to oral fluid testing.  This is considered to be more welfare-friendly for the pigs and is easier for the vets.  This method is also less expensive and therefore the payment rate has been reduced to reflect this.

The new offer will allow farmers to apply for a 3-year agreement to carry out Annual Reviews.  This is undertaken by the keeper’s vet of choice and includes a requirement for testing for the endemic disease or condition of the livestock type being reviewed to recommended standards – Bovine Viral Diarrhoea (BVD) in dairy & beef cattle, effectiveness of worming treatments in sheep, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in pigs.   After the vet has completed the review, farmers can choose to have an Endemic Disease Follow-up.  This involve more in-depth diagnostic testing of PRRS in pigs.  For cattle it will help identify animals which are persistently infected with BVD and give advice on how to eliminate the disease on the farm.  With regards to sheep, there will be a little more flexibility, allowing farmers, in consultation with their vet, to choose from a range of health packages.  Eligible farmers will also receive funding towards a biosecurity assessment and bespoke advice on how to improve it.

There must be at least 10 months between reviews, and follow-ups must be within 10 months of the review.  The service will end on 19th June 2027 by which time all reviews and follow-ups must have taken place.  For those farmers that have already completed a review under the old Annual Health and Welfare Review, it is possible to go straight into a follow-up as long as it is no more than 10 months since the review took place.

The AHDB is forecasting UK sheep meat production to decline by 2.9% in 2024 compared with 2023, to total 278,000 tonnes in its latest Lamb Market Outlook.  In February, it was estimating a -1% decline (see https://abcbooks.co.uk/sheep-outlook-3/).

The lamb crop for the 2024/25 season (March to March) is expected to be 15.9 million head, a decline of 185,000 (1.2%) from the previous season as a result of a smaller breeding flock at 1st December 2023 (at 13.8m head this was the lowest since current records began in 1996) and lower scanning rates.  In terms of clean sheep slaughter, the AHDB is estimating the carryover for 2024 of old season lambs was just over 4 million head from January – May.  This is a decline of -6.5% (280,000 head) on the year.  It is despite a higher level of ewe lambs being slaughtered instead of being kept for breeding as farmers took advantage of the very high old season lamb (OSL) prices being achieved.  Furthermore, the number of new season lambs (NSL) slaughtered in the first half is also expected to be lower than in the same period for 2023, by some 235,000 head to 1.42 million, supporting prices to the record values realised over the first half of the year.

Looking forward to the second half of the year and assuming a typical slaughter pattern, clean slaughter numbers are expected to be up by 1% (48,000 head) to 6.4 million.  Adult sheep slaughter experienced a sharp decline in the first half of the year compared with 2023, there is expected to be a slight improvement in the second half.  However, there is still expected to be a fall of 3% over the whole year compared with year earlier levels.

In terms of trade, imports are forecast to increase by 12% year-on-year for the whole of 2024.  This rise comes from a low base though, as 2023 imports were only 10,800 tonnes, compared with a five year average of 17,000 tonnes.  Imports from New Zealand are already estimated to be 10,500 tonnes, the majority being frozen leg joints which were apparently needed to fulfil Easter orders.  These shipments are expected to slow down over the rest of the year as domestic lamb numbers increase and NZ production slows with its traditional slaughter season ending in September.  Imports from Australia remain stable as they concentrate on shipments to the US, China and Middle East.  UK exports declined over the first quarter by 800 tonnes year-on-year to 20,400 tonnes – mainly due to lower production and increased domestic demand.  The EU has taken 95% of all UK exports so far in 2024.  Looking ahead, our exports should be supported as the European Commission is forecasting by a 5% decline in EU production.  However, lower domestic production means there won’t be the product to export and shipments are forecast to decline by 5% on the year.

With regards to consumption, the AHDB says combined retail and foodservice demand for lamb in the first three months of 2024 has exceeded initial expectations.  Even so, pressures on household budgets, although getting slightly better, are expected to continue and a 1% decline in volume consumption is forecast, compared with 2023 and a 15% decline since 2019.

So what does all this mean for farmgate prices?  The lamb price has been very strong over the first half of the year.  Prices are currently seeing a seasonal decline as more new season lamb comes to market and consumer demand remains pressured due to the cost of living crisis.  But imports are expected to slow as NZ production comes to the end of its season and, if domestic demand does weaken, exports to the EU, where production is falling, presents an opportunity.  The result being an expection that prices should remain buoyant over the year.  The finished lamb SQQ p per kg deadweight price is tracked in our Key Farm Facts.

 

It has been announced that the Lancashire-based milk processor, Yew Tree Dairies, is to be taken over by Muller UK.  Yew Tree, build up over a number of years by the Woodcock family at Skelmersdale, West Lancashire, specialises in milk powders but also processes fresh milk and cream.  No price for the business has been reported and the takeover is subject to approval by the Competition and Markets Authority.

According to the AHDB the spring flush passed with a ‘whimper’.  GB daily milk deliveries recorded a downturn in the week ending 11th May.  The highest daily figure was recorded at 36.92m litres on 8th May (although this figure is still subject to revision).  Delivery data from the AHDB for 1st-11th May shows production was back 2.1% compared with 2023, which was itself a ‘subdued’ year.  Cumulative deliveries are already 2.9% below the AHDB’s forecast it made in March; this will be revisited in June.  Looking ahead, although grass growth is good now, the wet weather through autumn, winter and spring is likely to have caused longer term damage to the ground and grass quality.

The picture is similar at a global level.  Reported milk deliveries in the latest period (February) averaged 813 million litres per day, down by 0.4% (5.5m litres per day) compared with the same period last year.  Australia and New Zealand both recorded a year-on-year increase, but Argentina, the US and UK all exeperienced a fall in production.  Deliveries in the EU were said to be stable; significant declines in Ireland, down 13.3% on the year, have been compensated by growth in Germany, France and Poland.

Although the warning signs have been there, it appears the commodity markets have finally woken up to the fact that production has been constrained, with butter prices experiencing siginificant recent rises and cheese starting to follow.  The GDT average index has also risen at both events held in May by 1.8% and 3.3% to average $3,861.  Notable movers include:

• Butter           +5.1% to $6,931
• SMP              +3.5% to $2,629
• WMP            +2.9% to $3,408

At farmgate level, there is also an upward trend in UK milk prices, with some increases for June having already been announced;

• Suppliers to Muller will receive a 0.5ppl increase for those who meet the conditions for Muller Advantage
• Freshways has announced a 2ppl increase from 1st June, taking its standard litre to 37ppl
• Barbers has announced a further 1.02ppl increase, the 5th increase this year, which takes its standard litre to 39.15ppl

The only air of caution is Rabobank’s forecast for Chinese import demand which has been revised down to -8%.  Stronger domestic production and weaker demand is behind these updated figures.  Only 0.6% of UK British dairy exports went to China in 2023.  However, New Zealand, China’s biggest supplier will have a lot of displaced product which will need to go somewhere.

Defra has increased the grant available under the Smaller Abattoir Fund.  The fund, which opened in December, supports the purchase of a diverse range of capital investments and equipment.  Defra has confirmed the grant rate has increased from 40% to 50% and the maximum grant amount has been raised from £60,000 to £75,000.  To maximise the ability to access the fund, applicants are also able to make up to three separate applications throughout the application window, up to the maximum of £75,000.  The minimum grant amount remains the same at £2,000.  Our article of 15th December 2023 gives further details of the fund  (see https://abcbooks.co.uk/smaller-abattoir-fund/), which will now close on 30th September 2024.

Defra has released guidance for the first round of the Laying Hen Housing for Health and Welfare Grant.  This new grant is part of the Farming Investment Fund (FIF) and will provide suport to either;

• replace or upgrade hen or pullet housing – a ‘Comprehensive’ project; or
• add a veranda onto exising laying hen or pullet housing – a ‘Veranda-only’ project

Similar to other grants available under the FIF, there will be an online checker which is expected to be available from the end of June.  Successful projects will need to show;

• improved laying hen and pullet health and welfare
• increased environmental sustainability
• innovation

The project must show a high level of biosecurity, an excellent ambient environment, and maximise the space available.  Comprehensive projects for both pullets and laying hens should include mechanical ventilation and high welfare multi-tier systems (defined as aviaries for laying hens).  Any laying hen housing should include a veranda, where outside space is permitted.  Eligible applicants for Veranda-only projects will be invited to make a full application from July 2024.  Eligible applicants for Comprehensive projects will be invited to make a full application from October 2024.

The full guidance can be found at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/laying-hen-housing-for-health-and-welfare-grant-round-1 .

A case of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) has been confirmed in Ayrshire.  The Animal Plant and Health Agency (APHA) is investigating the source of the outbreak and have placed movement restrictions at the farm where the animal was located and at a further three farms which includes the farm where the animal originated from and two more holdings where animals have had access to the same feed.  Food Standards Scotland have said the case was identified as a result of routine surveillance and stringent control measures –  all animals over four years of age that die on farm are routinely tested for BSE.  The animal did not enter the human food chain.  And although the disease is not directly transmitted from animal to animal, its cohorts and offspring have been traced and isolated and they will be destroyed in line with legal requirements.

The APHA has confirmed that there is a ‘very high probability’ of a new introduction of bluetongue virus serotype 3 (BTV-3) into livestock in Great Britain.  This will be through infected biting midges coming over from northern Europe.  These midges are most active between April and November but it will depend on the temperature and wind patterns as to when the risk is greatest.  Readers will recall last November, APHA and The Pirbright Institute identified the first case of the disease in Great Britain through the annual Bluetongue Surveillance Programme.  Since then, there have been 126 bluetongue cases confirmed in England across 73 premises in four counties, with the last case confirmed on the 8th March 2024.  All cases confirmed to date have been detected through active surveillance, with the animals likely to have been infected back in late autumn.

Due to their proximity to areas in northern Europe where BTV-3 is actively being transmitted by the biting midge population and wind patterns, counties along the south and east coasts of England, including Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Kent, and Sussex, are considered most likely to be impacted.  APHA has said, once the risk of transmission increases, it will be offering free bluetongue tests to keepers in these high-risk counties.

Bluetongue virus affects cattle, sheep, and other ruminants such as goats and deer, and camelids such as llamas.  However, the virus does not affect people or food safety.  The impacts on infected animals can vary greatly depending on the species of animal and the strain of bluetongue virus – some show no symptoms, while for others it can cause productivity issues such as reduced milk yield or, in the most severe cases, it can be fatal.

Currently there are no authorised vaccines available for BTV-3 in the UK or Europe, but the Government is ‘actively engaging with vaccine manufacturers’ on the development of a vaccine for use in the UK.  There is a vaccine approved by the Dutch authorities which has emergency use approval but not market authorisation. Vaccines without market authorisation can have potentially negative implications for trade and may impact the ability to export meat and dairy products to some trading partners.  APHA has said it is ‘actively monitoring vaccine data from EU countries and will continue to work with the industry on any decisions on use of a deployable vaccine’.

Based on the BCMS calf registrations data for England and Wales during 2023, there is a notable increase in the numbers of Aberdeen Angus calves (up 31% since 2019) and in Wagyu calves (up by over five-fold since 2019). The key trends for the top-10 breeds are summarised in the table below.

England and Wales Calf Birth Registrations – 2023 versus 2019

Source: BCMS

Across England and Wales, over 1.9 million calves were registered during 2023, a 3% increase on 2019. As noted above, Aberdeen Angus calf registrations are up considerably and 2023 registrations stood at nearly 525,000, representing a 27% share of total registrations. Other British breeds such as British Blue, Hereford, and Beef Shorthorn also posted increases of 11%, 4% and 9% respectively.

In contrast, continental breeds have decreased with Limousin, Charolais and Simmental down by 17%, 13% and 21% respectively. Registrations of Stabiliser calves, a breed with US origins and containing genetics from Hereford, Angus, Simmental and Gelbvieh breeds has also seen a sizeable (38%) increase.

However, it is the Wagyu breed which has made the most significant progress in recent years, posting a 524% increase since 2019. Whilst its share of total registrations (2%) is still low, this is substantial progress and the breed appears to be gaining favour within the dairy sector in particular.

The latest statistics illustrate that farmers are increasingly opting for breeds that are perceived to produce higher quality beef and are easier to manage on-farm. Linked with this, the increased utilisation of sexed-semen is also notable elsewhere in the BCMS data as the populations of male dairy cattle aged 0-12 months are 20% lower across the UK than in January 2023. With more farmers selecting breeds perceived to offer higher meat quality, the next step is likely to be a greater focus on genetics which can produce quality beef with lower methane emissions.