Category: Dairy & Livestock

The Andersons Centre’s mixed lowland farm model ‘Meadow Farm’ has recently been updated.   The table below shows the final results for 2019/20 and 2020/21, and an estimate for the current year, and a forecast for 2022/23.

The 2019/20 year was affected by low livestock prices, particularly for beef.  But livestock prices recovered in 2020 and as the table shows, the livestock gross margin in 2020/21 was the strongest it had been for some time.  Also, as a result of the rise in crop prices seen through autumn 2020 the crop gross margin also strengthened.  The result being the combined margin from production for 2020/21 was the best it had been for a number of years.  However, the margin from production was still negative and the BPS and CSS payments were required to provide profit.

In the current year, livestock prices have further increased to record levels, resulting in the highest livestock gross margin figure for Meadow Farm ever seen.  Arable margins have also been very good.  Overheads are forecast to increase as the proprietors of Meadow Farm have decided to replace the old telehandler with a new tractor complete with loader.  But even so, the margin from production is positive – for the first time in many years.  We can see the impact of the first BPS deduction under the Agricultural Transition, but the addition of this still leaves a good profit for the business relative to other years.

The final column is a forecast for 2022/23.  Livestock prices are expected to drop back as supplies start to increase, likewise arable prices and yields are expected to be more ‘normal’ but fertiliser costs have increased.  Overheads rise due to increased fuel prices and the proprietors are planning to invest in a new cattle shed, to replace old ones, meaning the depreciation increases.  The result is the the margin from production is back to 2019/20 levels but with the BPS reduced by 20%, the business surplus is very small.  The proprietors of Meadow Farm are keeping an eye on the new Sustainable Farming Incentive, to see if some of the ‘lost’ BPS can be recouped from this scheme.

Meadow Farm is typical of many livestock holdings in England, it is a notional 154 hectare (380 acre) beef and sheep farm in the Midlands.  It consists of grassland, with wheat and barley for livestock feed.  There are 60 spring-calving suckler cows with all progeny finished, a dairy bull beef enterprise and a 500 breeding ewe flock.  The business is subsidy-dependent, but with direct payments decreasing from 2021 it will need to adapt; maybe through restructuring to reduce its overheads, which are fundamentally too high, or perhaps by taking advantage of the new ELM scheme, or possibly a combination of both.

The Government has confirmed exports of British lamb to the US will resume in 2022.  The ‘Small Ruminants Rule’ which has been in place in the US for more than 20 years, bans the imports of lamb from countries where scrapie has been identified.  After extensive evaluations, the USDA has amended this rule, which effectively means UK processors will be able to ship lamb to the US as from next year.  The amended rule comes into force as from 3rd January and paves the way for Defra, DIT, and the UK food saftety authorities to work with their counterparts in the US to complete the final steps so that full resumption of UK lamb exports to the US can begin.  This will be a welcome boost to sheep farmers in the UK, the US market is estimated to be worth £37m over the first five years.  The news comes after President Biden committed to lifting the ban on British lamb back in September (see our article https://abcbooks.co.uk/lamb-exports-to-us/)

Both GB farmgate beef and lamb prices remain exceptionally high.  The GB average deadweight prime cattle price is in the region of 35-40p per kg above last year and 55-60p per kg above the 5-year average.  It is a similar story for lamb, with the liveweight market about 55p per kg above last year and nearly £1 above the 5-year average.  The deadweight GB NSL SQQ nearly reached the £6 barrier for the week ending 13th November, rising to 597.4ppkg.

Tight supplies are supporting prices.  In the same week as reported on above, prime cattle throughput at GB abattoirs were estimated to be 4% down on the week before and 15% (5,200 head) less than for the same week in 2020.  Usually the kill increases at this time of year, with the run up to Christmas, but this has not materialised as yet, contributing to higher prices.  Supplies of lamb are also low.  The latest weekly kill (13th Nov), did increase, week-on-week by 12% to 247,000 head, but was still 46,000 head (16%) below the same week last year.

Perhaps slightly worrying is that prices appear to be supported by tight supplies rather than demand.  According to Kantar, in the 12 weeks ending 31st October 2021 spend on lamb declined by 7.2% year-on-year, while volumes fell by 11.1%.  Highlighting that British meat sector did well under Covid restrictions is the fact that, compared to two years ago, total lamb volumes are (only) down by 1.3%.  It is a similar picture for beef sales.  Over the same period, spend on beef declined by 3.8% year-on-year and volumes declined by 6.4%.  Compared with the same period in 2019 volumes are 2% less.

The Welsh Government has announced a 12 week consultation period on proposed changes to the Bovine TB eradication programme.  The full consultation, which can be found at https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/consultations/2021-11/refreshed-tb-consultation-document.pdf  is seeking views on;

• Changes to when pre and post movement tests are required
• Using a more sensitive test (i.e blood test) for pre-movement testing
• Informed purchasing, by enhancing the ibTB interactive map to include more details on herd breakdowns and including TB information at point of sale
• Linking TB payments to implementation of disease prevention and control practices
• Alternative approaches to TB payments, including table valuations as used in England

The closing date for responses is 8th February 2022

Since our last article there has been multiple reported cases of Avian Flu and number of 3km Protection Zones and 10km Surveillance Sites have been put in place across the country.  With the worsening situation the the Chief Veterinary Officers for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have agreed to bring in new housing measures from Monday 29th November.  This will mean that it will be a legal requirement for all bird keepers across the UK to keep their birds indoors and to follow strict biosecurity measures in order to limit the spread of and eradicate the disease.  There is already a requirement to house birds, in the districts of Harrogate, Hambleton and Richmondshire in North Yorkshire, but this will now cover the whole of the UK.  All the latest information can be found at https://www.gov.uk/guidance/avian-influenza-bird-flu including links to information in Scotland and Wales.

UK milk production for October is lower than last year and supplies remain tight.  As is usual for this time of year, deliveries have increased compared to the previous month, but are about 1.5% lower than last year (see Key Farm Facts for data).  Restricted supplies are resulting in a rise in wholesale market and farmgate prices.  But processors are also facing increasing costs and further farmgate prices could be constrained unless costs can be passed on to consumers.  An increase in production in response to the high prices is also likely to be limited due to escalating input costs.  Whilst feed costs have been steadily increasing since the start of 2020, energy and fertiliser prices have risen sharply since the beginning of this year, squeezing margins (See our Friesian Farm article https://abcbooks.co.uk/friesian-farm-update-7/).

Reacting to tight global supplies, the GDT overall average price index recorded its biggest price rise since March at the beginning of November (up by 4.3%).  This was followed up by a further 1.9% increase at the latest event held on 16th November to average $4,287 – the highest figure since 2014.  Butter rose by 3.5% to $5,534 with WMP and SMP rising by 1.9% and 1.4% respectively to average $3,987 and $3,676.

UK processors have also responded.  In what looks like a bid to secure future supplies Arla has announced a 3.03ppl increase for its members from 1st December.  This will take its members liquid standard litre price to 35.29ppl and standard manufacturing litre to 36.68ppl.  Other notable increases include:

• Both Freshways and Medina have announced 3ppl increases from 1st January.  This will take their standard liquid litre to 33ppl and 32.8ppl respectively.
• Muller Direct suppliers will receive a 2ppl rise, also from 1st January, taking its standard litre to 32ppl

The Government has introduced a Slaughter Incentive Payment Scheme (SIPS) with the aim of increasing the throughput of pigs via processors and easing the backlog on farm.  The scheme is part of a package of measures which we wrote about last month (see https://abcbooks.co.uk/pig-sector/) These were introduced by Government to support the pig industry because of a build-up of pigs on farm due to a lack of processing capacity brought-on, in part, by a shortage of skilled butchers and disruption in CO2 supplies.

The scheme will contribute towards the extra costs involved in operating additional slaughter shifts at abattoirs.  The scheme is being run by RPA, it opened on 16th November and will close on 20th December 2021.  The claim period will run from 21st December to 31st January 2022.  The payment rate will be £3 per eligible pig and will be made within 28 days of a valid claim.  All pigs must be slaughtered and processed in England.  Further eligibility rules and how to register can be found at https://www.gov.uk/guidance/slaughter-incentive-payment-scheme-sips?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_source=6977af8b-8d04-40e0-b954-14947419170a&utm_content=daily

The latest figures for our Friesian Farm model illustrates the rapidly changing fortunes of dairy farming as milk prices and costs both move sharply.

Friesian Farm is a notional dairy business milking a little over 200 cows.   It has been used to track the fortunes of British dairy farming for well over a decade.  It has a year-round calving system, like most of the UK industry, but it is trying to maximise yield from forage.  The farm comprises 130 hectares (of which 60 hectares are rented on an FBT).  The proprietor provides labour along with one full time worker (plus casual/relief).  The table below shows the farm’s actual results for the two previous milk years (April to March), a budget for the current 2021/22 year then a forecast for 2022/23.  

The figures are averages for an entire milk year.  For the current 2021/22 year, this means milk prices are not as high as presently seen, as, for a large portion of the year values were lower.  By the same token, whilst costs have risen (winter concentrate feed being a big element) the biggest rises have only been seen over the last few months.  In particular, fertiliser for the year was bought last spring at far more ‘normal’ values.  This means the returns for the current milk year look likely, on average, to be good.

It is in the following year that cost increases are really seen.  This is not just in areas such as feed, fertiliser, fuel and electricity, but also in costs such as labour, property repairs and machinery purchase.  Even with a higher milk price, returns are much reduced.  The effect of the Agricultural Transition in England can also be clearly seen with the pence per litre value of the BPS declining.

Budgeting ahead is currently difficult due to the fast-moving situation with costs and prices.  However, it is fairly clear that testing times for dairy profitability lie ahead.

 

An Avian Influenza Prevention Zone (AIPZ) has been declared across the whole of Great Britain as of 5pm on 3 November 2021.  It introduces strict biosecurity measures for all bird keepers (including those who keep pet birds) to help prevent the spread of avian influenza from wild birds or any other source.  This means for keepers with more than 500 birds, they will need to restrict access for non-essential people on their sites, workers will need to change clothing and footwear before entering bird enclosures and site vehicles will need to be cleaned and disinfected regularly to limit the risk of the disease spreading.

The AIPZ, now in force across GB, does not currently include a requirement to house birds.  However, this is being kept under constant review.

The most recent outbreak has been confirmed in birds at a premises in Angus, Scotland.  Further testing has confirmed this to be a highly pathogenic strain (HPAI H5N1).  A 3km Protection Zone and 10km Surveillance Zone are now in place around the premises.  Disease Control Zones remain in force around premises near Chirk, Wrexham and a premises near Droitwich Spa, Worcestershire, England.

Further information is available on the Government website at https://www.gov.uk/guidance/avian-influenza-bird-flu

Production

Global milk forecasts have been reduced as we head towards winter.  The challenging weather and increase in feed costs, despite good prices (see below) has seen the combined growth forecast from the six largest largest exporters (EU-27, US, Australia, Argentina, NZ and the UK) reduced from 1.4% down to 1% for 2021.  This equates to about 1.1bn litres.

But not all the countries have reduced their growth, some have increased.  Both the US and the EU-27 have decreased their forecasts by about 1.4bn, but this has partially been offset by increases from Argentina and NZ.  Increased production costs in the US is expected to result in a drop in cow numbers and yield in the second half of the year, meaning its forecast has been reduced, even so production from the US is still expected grow by 1.7% year-on-year.  The EU-27 has reduced its annual growth to just 0.3%.  Similar to the UK, challenging grass growing weather over the summer and high feed costs is impacting on yields; although there could be some recovery in the last quarter.

New Zealand and Argentina, on the other hand, are forecasting 1.9% and 2% growth for 2021.  In NZ this has already been delivered and further growth compared to last year’s levels over the remainder of the year is unlikely.  The UK and Australia are forecast to see growth of 0.4% and 0.9% respectively for the year.

Prices

With production globally and at home falling, prices continue to rise.  At the latest event held on 19th October 2021 the Global Dairy Trade index increased by 2.2% to $4,061.  SMP and WMP rose by 2.5% and 1.5% to average $3,401 and $3,803 respectively.  Butter increased by 4.7% to $5,111.  All products recorded an increase on the previous event.

In the UK, spot milk price is trading over 40ppl now, with UK bulk cream looking likely to reach £2.00 per kg.  All farmgate prices are increasing, but costs are also rising at an alarming rate.  Arla has announced it will be increasing the price paid to its conventional suppliers by 0.9ppl (€1) from 1st November.  This will take its manufacturing standard litre to 33.52ppl and the liquid standard litre to 32.26ppl.  However Graham Wilkinson, Group Senior Agricultural Director at Arla Foods, has commented that cost inflation is impacting farmers in a way they haven’t seen in many years.  He also acknowledged that November’s increase ‘will simply not be enough’ to cover the increase in longer-term costs that so many farmers are now experiencing.  This in turn could pose a risk to its supply in the UK and Arla will be focusing on this going forward.  Other notable price changes from 1st November include:

• The first to make an announcement was Muller.  Its Direct Suppliers (non-aligned) will receive a 1ppl increase from 1st November, taking their standard liquid litre to 30ppl
• The Tesco cost tracker has recorded a 0.7ppl increase meaning Tesco aligned producers from the Muller Group will receive 33.36ppl from 1st November and Arla suppliers 33.11ppl.
• Glanbia has announced a 1ppl rise for its suppliers, taking the manufacturing standard price to 30ppl and the liquid standard litre to 28.99ppl, but this likely to still be on the low side.