Category: Dairy & Livestock

2022 was an incredibly difficult year for pig producers, but there are some positive signals as we start 2023.  The EU-Spec SPP ended the year on a record high of 201.24p per kg in the final week of 2022.  Whilst the APP recorded a marginal decline over December compared with November, prices ended the year over 60p per kg more than at the same point in 2021.  In the run up to Christmas there were signs of pigs being pulled forward to slaughter and this has resulted in reports of tightening domestic supplies which should help to support prices.  AHDB estimated slaughter numbers show an increase in pigs coming forward in the first two weeks of December, with declines in weeks 3 and 4 as the festive holidays impacted processing days.  Furthermore, carcase weights continue to fall.  Average weights at the end of December were 87.42kg, down 1.35kg compared to the previous 4 weeks.  This is 8kg below their peak at the beginning of 2022 and further corroborating the fact finishers are selling pigs earlier.  Further price support should be available from the continent as the EU reference price continues its upwards movement.  For the five weeks ending 1st January, it increased by 3.1% (5.3ppkg) compared with November’s average price, to 177.54p per kg.

However, the SPP fell by 1.04p per kg to 200.2p per kg in the week ending 7th January, eroding most of the gains made in December.  This is made more disappointing due to the points made above which should be supporting prices.  However, the post-Christmas market is always a difficult one; the next few weeks will be important, pork is competitively priced compared to beef and lamb which should help sales.  Furthermore, the cost-of-living crisis could see an increase in at-home dining, which, as seen during Covid, tends to favour domestic production as long as the supermarkets stay loyal to British product.  But even at current prices margins remain squeezed.  The AHDB estimates costs of production in November at 232p per kg, cereal prices have fallen since then, but with the SPP at around 200p per kg, producers are still operating well below the cost of production.

GB milk deliveries for September to November were 2.5% higher than for the same period last month.  The late flush of grass growth in the autumn and a good milk-to-feed price ratio saw production lift.  Previously, production has run behind previous-year figures from July 2021 until September 2022 as the rise in input costs affected margins and production.  As a result of this production boost, the AHDB has adjusted its forecast and now expects GB production to reach 12.44 bn litres for the 2022/23 season.  This will be 0.7% higher on the season and 175m litres more than its September forecast.  The Levy Board has said it expects yields to ‘remain supported’ over the next couple of months on the back of strong milk prices and a stable milk herd (see Livestock Numbers article).

However, for the last quarter of the season, production is not expected to continue at the same level of growth recently experienced.  Forage stocks are tight following the summer drought and a question mark remains over demand and whether milk prices can be maintained due to the cost-of-living-crisis.  Some price reductions have already been announced  for the New Year;

• Suppliers to Meadow Foods will receive a 1ppl cut as from 1st January
• Freshways has announced it will be cutting its milk price to suppliers by 3ppl from the New Year.  This reduces the liquid standard price to 47ppl
• There will be a 1.5ppl drop for South Caernarfon Creameries suppliers from 1st January, taking its manufacturing standard litre down to 48.5ppl and liquid standard litre to 46.83ppl

However, there have been a number of buyers confirming a hold for January 2023 including Saputo, First Milk and Barbers.

Beef

Prime cattle prices have remained strong throughout the year (see Key Farm Facts).  Since rising through March and April, the GB overall average deadweight steer price has remained around the 440p per kg mark.  AHDB reports, in the five weeks to 3rd December, deadweight GB steers averaged 444p per kg overall, this is 32p (8%) higher than for the same period last year.  It is also some 77p above the 5-year average.  A similar situation is seen for prime heifers.  They are 31p ahead of the same period in 2021 and 74p on the equivalent 5-year average.  Although farmgate prices are at record highs, they haven’t seen the same increases throughout the year as costs have (see Agflation article https://abcbooks.co.uk/agflation-update/) meaning farming margins are under pressure.  Prime cattle slaughter numbers for the five weeks to 3rd December are estimated to be 156,000 head, this is 1.6% up on the same period in 2021.  It suggests that some farmers are choosing to market cattle rather than sustain the costs of rearing them further.  Even with this extra supply, prices have remained high – implying strong demand.  Taking the year as a whole, domestic cattle supplies have been tight; for the year to 3rd December, the GB prime cattle kill is estimated to be 1.5 million head, down 1% compared with 2021 and 4% below the 5-year average.

Lamb

GB lamb prices have recovered slightly from their seasonal decline.  But, despite being well above five-year average levels, they remain below last year’s (see Key Farm Facts).  Prices have been increasing through November, with the liveweight NSL SQQ for the period 5th November to 3rd December averaging 242.68p per kg; some 14.7p up on October’s price.  However, the price for the same period last year was 25.7p (9.6%) per kg higher.  During November, throughputs at auctions were 6.4% lower than year-earlier levels.  But for the year to 3rd December auction throughputs for both old and new season lamb have totalled 5.15 million head – up by 1.6% on 2021.

Deadweight prices have followed a similar pattern, rising through November but not as sharply as last year and subsequently remain below 2021 levels.  However, the monthly average was almost 20% higher than the 5-year average.  Weekly slaughter numbers were estimated to average 249,000 head per week for the 5 weeks to 3rd December.  This is 2,000 head per week lower than October.  Year-to-date estimates show deadweight slaughter numbers at 10.6 million head 2.2% higher compared with the same period last year.

Defra has released the UK livestock numbers from the June 2022 Survey; the table below summarises the figures.  As can be seen, for the second year in a row, both the cattle and pig breeding herds have declined but the sheep breeding flock has recorded an increase.

The total number of cattle and calves has actually increased from its record-low level last year (since the basis of data collection changed in 2009).  However, both the dairy and the beef breeding herds have recorded a year-on-year decline.  For dairy, the decline is marginal at 0.4% and there is the prospect of a rise in the future.  For dairy cattle aged between 1 and 2 years the Survey shows a 6.1% year-on-year increase in numbers.  This suggests more replacements coming through.  For the beef herd, even though the finished beef price has been at record highs again this year, it looks like increasing costs and falling support payments have made some decide it is time to exit the industry.  It is notable that the number of male cattle aged between 1 and 2 years is up by 2.1% on the year, meaning an increase in supplies will be coming through next year and could put downward pressure on prices.

The estimates show a further increase in the sheep breeding flock and notably ewes intended for first time breeding are up by 5.2% on the year.   The sheep sector has received good prices for a few years now, bringing some confidence into the sector.  However there is anecdotal evidence that some are disappointed with the current price, particularly with the situation of high costs, so it remains to be seen if the current ‘buoyant’ outlook in the sector remains.

The economic climate for pig producers is currently hugely challenging and this is shown in the large reduction in the breeding herd.  Total pig numbers, although down by 2.5% on last year, are still high.  This is due to the figures including pigs which were having to remain on farm due to problems in the processing sector.  We could see even further contraction of the pig breeding herd unless circumstances improve.  The full Survey results can be found at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/livestock-populations-in-the-united-kingdom/livestock-populations-in-the-united-kingdom

Defra has launched an online reporting system for dead wild birds as part of its Avian Influenza mitigation strategy.  The service can be accessed via https://www.gov.uk/guidance/report-dead-wild-birds.  Defra is asking people to use it if they find;

• 1 or more dead birds of prey (such as an owl, hawk or buzzard)
• 3 or more dead birds that include at least 1 gull, swan, goose or duck
• 5 or more dead wild birds of any species

Outbreaks of Avian Flu continue to be reported on a daily basis, readers can find the latest information at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/bird-flu-avian-influenza-latest-situation-in-england?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications-topic&utm_source=633fed00-1ba1-491a-9a5a-d691026e8928&utm_content=daily

The Welsh Government announced a housing order for all poultry and captive birds with affect from 2nd December.  It is also a legal requirement for all keepers to complete a bio-security Self-assessment check list.  This can be found at https://gov.wales/mandatory-biosecurity-self-assessment-checklist 

There have been many reports in the press that that Avian Influenza (AI) is to blame for a shortage of eggs in the UK, which is angering many producers.  Some of the main supermarkets have started rationing how many boxes of eggs customers can buy (which tends to be a self-fulfilling prophecy as any hint of a shortage leads to panic-buying).  But whilst the worry of AI is hanging over egg producers, spiralling costs is having a far greater impact on egg supplies.  According to the British Free Range Egg Producers Association (BFREPA) a third of UK farmers have cut the number of hens in their flock because they cannot cover costs of production, with producers having been calling for greater returns since March.  According to the Association, the rise in egg prices consumers are seeing on the shelves is not being passed back to producers.

The industry has warned egg shortages are now expected to last ‘beyond Christmas’.  No practical measures of help have been offered by Defra, with Therese Coffey saying she is ‘confident’ that the industry can get through supply issues in the short term.  Meanwhile, NFU poultry board chair James Mottershead has said the Union is having conversations with retailers and also asking Government to look at the supply chain, to ensure it is transparent and that farmers are receiving a fair return.

Meanwhile, Defra has updated its Guidance on Egg Marketing Standards to advise free range producers, who are in areas with housing restrictions due to AI, which includes the whole of England, that they can continue to label their eggs as free range for 16 weeks from the date the birds were housed.  

Production

Favourable weather conditions during October has resulted in record GB production for the month (see Key Farm Facts).  The AHDB is estimating production for the month to be 4% above its own monthly forecast, averaging 33.5m litres per day, some 2.5% more than in September and a 3% year-on-year uplift.  Warm weather and average rainfall resulted in above-average grass growth.  However, with the recent heavy rainfall, most herds will now be housed and moving into the winter months will be more reliant on winter feed at higher costs, meaning yields could fall again if farmgate prices also drop (see below).

Globally, the latest production figures refer to the month of September.  However, these also show a year-on-year uplift (+0.3%).  September is the first month in 2022 to report an uplift in daily deliveries compared to year-earlier levels.  EU production is reported to have grown by 0.8% compared with September 2021, whilst US production was up by 1.5% on the year.  Rabobank is forecasting production in the US to now remain above year-earlier levels for the rest of the year and into early 2023.  This is partly as it is being compared with last year’s low production, but the bank is also reporting herd restocking and an increase in yield per cow.  Argentina has seen a year-on-year growth in production for the second month running, by +0.3%.  An uplift in milk prices in August (+5%) is reported to have encouraged an increase in production.

But challenging weather conditions in Australia and New Zealand has resulted in production for September being down in these countries by 6.2% and 3.2% respectively for the year.  Australia has experienced flooding in some parts with cold, wet weather impacting grass growth in New Zealand.

Prices

We have been wondering if farmgate milk prices had peaked for a couple of months now, but they have kept on edging up.  However, with commodity and futures markets all dropping and production increasing, the outlook for the New Year could see a change, with some forecasting large declines.  The Global Dairy Trade Index, although rising by 2.4% to average $3,623 per tonne at the latest event on 15th November, has shown some big drops since June (see KFFs).  With the only other rises since then being in September, the index average has fallen from its high in March 2022 ($5,039 per t) back to January 2021 levels.  Spot milk prices were trading above 50ppl in August, but are now back to around 45ppl, due to the increase in production.  Bulk cream has also seen a decline recently.  Most buyers are expected to stand-on for December, but eyes will be on Arla, especially following their surprise (large) increase of 1.33ppl announced for November earlier in the month – see (https://abcbooks.co.uk/arla-milk-price-increase/).

Arla has announced a 1.33ppl price increase for its members as from 1st November.  The (large) rise is a bit of a surprise given the fall in global markets (see last month’s article https://abcbooks.co.uk/dairy-update-19/) and the stabilisation of domestic milk production.  The increase will take the UK manufacturing price for conventional and organic milk to 52.24ppl and 57.02ppl respectively; this is based on 4.2% butterfat and 3.4% protein.