Category: Dairy & Livestock

Tighter beef and lamb supplies in key producing countries across the EU are supporting prices.  Reports from the AHDB reveal beef production in Spain and France for the first three quarters of the year is down by -7% and -4% respectively on the year, with Italy experiencing a -20% decline.  There is a ‘general decline’ in beef production across the EU, but poor quality grazing and high feed costs is having a particlular impact this year.  There are also industry reports that abattoir throughputs of Irish cattle have slowed in recent weeks, supporting prices in Ireland and narrowing the price differential between GB and Irish steers; this stood in the region of 77p per kg at the end of November.  GB deadweight beef prices have remained pretty stable since September with the GB all steer average deadweight price for the w/e 9th December 2023 standing at 483.1p per kg, comfortably above the 5-year average and 40p per kg above the same time last year.

The EU sheep reference price has gained in recent weeks.  Of particular interest is the Spanish lamb price which has risen by over 200p per kg (deadweight) since August, breaking the 800p per kg barrier at the end of November.  Usually the Spanish lamb price is lower than French, by about 50-100p per kg, but it is now trading above; in the region of 50p per kg.  Price growth has been seen in France, but not by as much, the same can also be said for Ireland and GB.  Sheep meat production across the EU is reported to have declined by -2% in the period January to September.  Spain and France have both seen output fall by -9%, with production in Greece down by -3%.  In contrast, Ireland has recorded a 2% growth in production.  The GB liveweight lamb SQQ has also remained ‘steady’ throughout the autum.  The price for the w/e 9th December 2023 stood at 260.1p per kg (585.8ppkg deadweight for the same week), compared with 238.3p per kg in 2022, although prices have now fallen below those received back in 2021.

The latest GB prices can be found in Key Farm Facts.

Production

The AHDB is reporting GB milk deliveries in November were down by 2.8% compared with last year (Defra figures will not be available until the New Year).  GB production for the month totalled 977 million litres, a fall of nearly 29 million litres on the year.  However, this time last year milk prices were very high, peaking in December at 51.60ppl, compared with the current price around the 37-38ppl mark (see Key Farm Facts).  At this price producers will not ‘push’ cows for the extra litres and production may further reduce thoughout the winter.  In its latest revised forecast the AHDB has reduced production estimates for the 2023/24 milk year by 1.3% to total 12.22 billion litres.  Furthermore, this is entirely driven by lower yields as BCMS data suggests the herd size remains stable.  The global picture is similar.  Production in September was down marginally by -0.7%, but as the milk price falls, production is slowing.

Prices

Falling milk production together with an increase in demand as we approach Christmas, is resulting in some strong upward price movements for UK wholesale markets.  On the global market, after ‘stuttering’ in November (see last month’s article) the average GDT Price Index recorded a 1.6% increase at the latest event held on 5th December to average $3,323.  Both SMP and WMP experienced gains; +1.2% and 2.1% resepctively.  But the big mover was Cheddar, up by +9.7% to average $3,986.  The next event will be held on 19th December and it will be interesting to see if this ‘positivity’ continues – if seems like the market is at a turning point.

In terms of farmgate milk prices, the most notable announcement is from Arla giving a 0.89ppl increase from 1st December for its suppliers of both conventional and organic milk.  This means the UK manufacturing price will be 36.1ppl and 43.54ppl respectively.  Significantly, in its announcement Arla Foods amba board director, and Arla farmer, Arthur Fearnall, said ‘This announcement is a step in the right direction for our cooperative business. Global milk supplies are slowing down in major production areas and retail sales continue to pick up after the turnaround in Q3. Global commodity markets are also recovering……The outlook is positive‘.

Defra has released the UK livestock numbers from the June 2023 Survey; the table below summarises the figures.  As can be seen, for both the cattle and pig breeding herds, and the sheep breeding flock, numbers are down on 2022.

The total cattle breeding herd has declined by 1.9%.  However this is mainly due to fall in beef breeding numbers as the dairy breeding herd has only experienced a marginal decline.  This probably reflects the tight margins in the beef sector; even though prices have been strong over the past couple of years, input costs have also been high.  This sector has historically been reliant on the BPS.

The estimates show after a couple of year’s of increasing numbers, the sheep breeding flock has experienced a 2.4% decline.  Notably ewes intended for first time breeding are down by 6.1%, suggesting further contraction of the breeding flock.   The sheep sector has received good prices for a few years now, but high costs continue to erode margins.  The number of lambs under 1 year old are down by 6.1% – a reflection of the smaller lamb crop which could support prices in the New Year.

The economic climate for pig producers, although still challenging, is much better than this time last year, even so the breeding herd continues to contract.  The female breeding herd decreased by 1.5%; falling to 338,000.  This is the lowest it has been in the past 21 years.  However gilts in pig saw a rise of 13%, suggesting some herd re-building is now happening.  The large reduction in the total pigs number will partly be due to last year’s figure being high as pigs were having to remain on farm due to problems in the processing sector; there was an 11% fall in the number of fattening pigs, which now stand at just under 4.3 million.

The full Survey results can be found at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/livestock-populations-in-the-united-kingdom?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications-topic&utm_source=faece29b-aa70-4496-8b89-e9c18d6142db&utm_content=daily

Further to our article earlier in the month, further cases of bluetongue have been identified.  These are all in cattle and on holdings that are situated in the existing north-east Kent Temporary Control Zone (TCZ) and follows active surveillance.   This brings the total number of cases, as at 16th December, to 22 on 8 different holdings. Defra continues to say there is ‘currently still no evidence that bluetongue virus is circulating in Great Britain’.  Surveillance is ongoing.

Defra has announced a £4 million support fund for small abattoirs.  Through the Smaller Abattoir Fund (SAF), capital grants of between £2,000 and £60,000 will be available at 40% of eligible costs. There will be a set list of items (this doesn’t appear to be available just yet) that will be funded, but in recognition that each abattoir has different specialisms, requirements and challenges, Defra has said it will consider additional investments that aren’t on the list.  Applicants will be asked to provide evidence that the investment aligns with at least one of the fund’s aims, objectives, and eligibility criteria.  These are to;

• improve productivity,  
• enhance animal health and welfare,  
• add value to primary products,  
• encourage innovation the use of new technologies.  

To help with cash flow, applicants will be able to make up to 3 applications to a total of £60,000 to make the most out of the fund. 

The SAF will be accessible to FSA-approved mobile and static red meat and poultry abattoirs in England only.  The Fund will be open to red meat abattoirs processing up to and including 10,000 farmed livestock units (LSU) per annum (i.e., bovines, sheep, goats, pigs, farmed venison), and poultry abattoirs slaughtering up to and including 500,000 birds per annum (i.e., chickens, turkeys, geese, ducks, capons, hens).  Throughput will be calculated using FSA quality-assured throughput data for the 2022 calendar year.

The RPA will be contacting eligible applicants in the coming days with the official guidance and application forms. They will also share details of webinars to learn more in the New Year.  The application window will be open until 30th September 2024 or until all the money has been allocated to successful applications.

For those who have further questions about applications or the Smaller Abattoir Fund it is possible to email [email protected] or call 03000 200 301 and select the ‘Smaller Abattoir Fund’ option. 

The first cases of Bluetongue have been confirmed outside of Kent.  This follows the first case in a sheep, identified (in Kent) on December 7th.  The latest cases have been found in cattle on a farm near Cantley, Broadland, Norfolk. This brings the total number to 11 animals on 6 different premises.  All animals have been humanely culled to prevent further transition.  Defra continue to advise that there is currently no evidence that Bluetongue virus is circulating in GB and surveillance continues.

A 10km Temporary Control Zone (TCZ) has been declared around the premises in Norfolk.  Following the cases identified on 4th December 2023, the 10km TCZ has been extended to cover the whole of North Kent, the location of this can be found via https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/656e3dfa0f12ef07a53e01f0/BTV_TCZ_declaration_BTD_2023_01-06_North_East_Kent.pdf

Animal movements out of the TCZ are currently not allowed.  Movements into or within the zone are only allowed under licence.  You can apply for a specific movement licence (see https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/bluetongue-apply-for-a-specific-movement-licence) if there is an urgent and genuine welfare need to move animals, or you need to move animals from:

• a premises within the TCZ to another premises within the TCZ
• the free area into the TCZ permanently (for example, breeding stock)
• the free area or within the TCZ to go direct to slaughter within the TCZ
• the TCZ to go direct to slaughter at a designated abattoir in the free area within 100 miles of the premises of origin

From 13th December, all livestock farmers who export meat to the EU will need to have had an annual health visit from a vet.  Under the new regulations, evidence of a health visit will be required where livestock, or animal products derived from livestock, enter the food chain and may be exported to the EU.  Producers will be required to get a Vet Attestation Number (VAN) (see https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/veterinary-declaration-for-animal-health-visits) which will need to be recorded on Food Chain Information (FCI) documents.

Farmers in England can get their VAN when they receive an Annual Health and Welfare Review (see https://www.gov.uk/guidance/sfi-annual-health-and-welfare-review).  In addition, those who are members of the following assurance schemes (which already require an annual health visit from a vet) are not required to do anything extra.  They are able to use their membership number:

• Red Tractor
• Quality Meat Scotland (QMS)
• Farm Assured Welsh Livestock Beef and Lamb (FAWL)/Welsh Lamb and Beef Producers Ltd (WLBP)
• Lion Quality
• Poultry Health Scheme.

The UK’s largest doorstep milk delivery operation, Milk & More has been sold.  Freshways, the large middle-ground processor has moved into the household delivery market with its purchase of the business from Muller.  Milk & More was originally part of Dairy Crest and was acquired by Muller as part of the overall takeover in 2016.  It has never seemed to sit entirely comfortably within the wider Muller operation, despite significant investment going into the business in recent years.  Whilst milk deliveries remains at the core of Milk & More it has expanded to also deliver a wide range of other groceries.

Legislation to ban the live export of animals has been laid before Parliament.  The Animal Welfare (Livestock Exports) Bill was introduced on the 4th December.  This would prevent the export of cattle, sheep, goats, pigs and horses intended for slaughter (not for breeding) and was one of the Bills announced in the Kings Speech.  It only applies to Great Britain and not Northern Ireland.  It is unclear whether the legislation will get through the Parliamentary process before the General Election next year, or early 2025.  

Production

The AHDB has estimated GB milk deliveries declined by -2.8% year-on-year in October.  Defra’s UK milk deliveries will be available on 30th November.  The wet weather meant many could not take advantage of the good autumn grass growth, having to bring cows in early.  Although some input costs have fallen, others remain high and with current milk prices there is little incentive to push yields.  The AHDB is currently forecasting a -0.5% decline in GB deliveries for the 2023/24 milk year.  Global milk production started to fall year-on-year in August and is now expected to only experience a 0.1% growth in annual production.

Prices

Wholesale markets have seen an uplift over the last couple of months.  These have been supported by results from the GDT events through September and October.  However, at the two auctions held in November the index fell by -0.7% at the earlier one and remained level at the last auction, averaging $3,268.  UK farmgate prices continued to trend downwards in November, but with reduced production and an increase in demand prices appear to be stabilising.  Meadow Foods, Barbers and Wyke Farms have all announced price holds for December.

GB Producer Numbers

In a recent survey carried out by the AHDB, it is estimated that there are 7,500 dairy producers in GB as at October 2023.  This is a decline of -4.5% (350) compared with October 2022.  The AHDB has highlighted the fall in milk price as the ‘major diver’ in the decline in numbers.